Consider Detroit's Big Three.

Having made what  turned  out to be bad bets on  over-investing in now shunned product lines, they've been  conspicuously laying people off, downsizing, attempting to  renegotiate credit lines, and furiously trying to revamp their product offerings to align to and conform with the world's new reality. 

Sound familiar?

It should because the same description, with variants in emphasis, could apply to our industry.

So I have a modest proposal:  Let's put all our lawyer  brethren in Congress—surely we should at least get some good out of the vast over-representation our colleagues enjoy in poliitics—working on a bailout bill for BigLaw.

I owe the genesis of this insight to a faithful reader, Brent Jeffcoat, of McGuire Woods' Charlotte office.  He frames the key argument nicely:

When do law firms start seeking federal assistance?  After all, think of all the people we affect: our young associates marry and live in condominiums in urban centers.  We probably support Starbucks.  Allen Edmonds is toast.  Many high-end automobile dealerships will suffer mightily without the patronage of lawyers.  I mean, the list goes on.  Think of all those poor guys in Scotland who will not be able to sell their single malt whiskeys.  It would be a global crisis of unimaginable proportions if one or two of the AmLaw 100 were to fail.  The Federal government has got to step in and lend a hand.  Before year-end or else the distributions will be hit.  Heck, many people in the medical industry are dependent upon elective cosmetic procedures scheduled just after year-end distributions.  America needs us to survive.  Who will keep the kept women?

This is firmly in keeping with the evident economic philosophy of our times.  Who needs Microsoft, Intel, Starbucks, or, for that matter, Target?  Wouldn't we all be  better off in a world dominated by Wang, DEC, Howard Johnson's, and Nash Rambler?  And isn't your dream  for your kids that they can grow up and join the UAW?  Don't you wish you could, to paraphrase William F. Bucklkey, stand astride the tide of history and cry, "Stop!"?

Joseph Schumpeter (Mr. "Creative Destruction"), and Adam Smith himself, would be outraged and appalled.  And  rightly so. 

Permit  me  to remind our colleagues in Congress what happens when a company declares the dreaded "bankruptcy:"  Its workers are not taken out and shot, its factories and offices are not incinerated, and its customers' demand does  not evaporate.  Rather, all those assets  and market forces are  reallocated elsewhere.  If the Big Three have demonstrated anything  over the past 30 years, it is their unrivalled  managerial genius at misallocating productive  assets and falling ever further behind their rivals.  Time, one might  think, to give someone else a chance to deploy those assets.

Sympathetic as I am to law firms struggling with yesterday'spractice areas, and to lawyers rudely discovering the urgency of reinventing themselves, the dynamism of the  market will not abate. 

That is something devoutly to be celebrated.

Our texts for today come from (in inappropriate order) the New Testament, as it were, and Peter Kalis, the chairman of K&L Gates:

"The metaphysical question is whether you can have bulge-bracket Wall Street firms without Wall Street," says Kalis. "The capital markets, when they rebound, will no longer have the margins they once did. Like night follows day, they won't be willing to pay premium rates."

And from the Old Testament, Simpson Thacher's Chairman Richard Beattie:

"I strongly suspect we've got a rough period of time ahead". He sees the markets turning around within a year or two, and doesn't expect big changes ahead for his firm and its closest competitors. "I don't think [the market changes] will impact fees," he says. "The M&A work will come back, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley will be advising the companies doing M&A, and I don't see the fees being different. . . . The private equity firms will be back. They're sitting there with huge piles of money."

In my conversations with managing partners in New York and elsewhere, they segregate their worries into the (relatively) pedestrian and the existential. The low-level worry is one of duration: How long will this recession last? If it's of "ordinary" duration, say about a year, and of "ordinary" depth, with unemployment staying below 8%, we know how to deal with that: Be prudent about costs, manage your partners' expectations, and stay the course.

But there's another possibility, the one Pete Kalis fingers: Are we facing an existential challenge?

If the US Treasury is a major stockholder in major financial institutions, how will that change the dynamic of how premium-level legal services are bought and sold? Not to be facetious about it, but how would you feel to be called before Barney Frank to justify your $950/hour rates?

Short of being hauled before the television cameras of Congressional hearings, contemplate the implications of the changes in ownership of major financial institutions simply on the private side. If you think that Bank of America hires lawyers as Merrill Lynch hired lawyers, guess again. Here are a few examples from their website (warning: they run 69 pages):

• Extraordinarily explicit diversity requirements;
• Refusal to pay for first year and junior associates;
• No payment for time spent on conflict checks;
• Automatic "most favored nation" status on rates;
• Staffing demands enforced at a task-level basis;
• Highly stylized and formatted billing submission requirements, failure to adhere to which spurs immediate rejection of the entire bill; and
• You get the picture.

But back to the issue of New York. To what extent will it remain a financial powerhouse for investment banks and, by analogy, law firms?

At the risk of offending both Pete Kalis and Richard Beattie, I don't think New York will become Just Another Big City, nor do I think its pride of place at the pinnacle of the food chain is guaranteed. Instead, I want to offer an analogy between law-firm land and corporate land.

The common perception is that Fortune 500 companies have been abandoning New York for their headquarters in a steadily departing stream for the past 40 years or so. The reality is quite different. (Not so incidentally, there are a multitude of studies showing that firms that relocated outside New York have underperformed the S&P 500 whereas those that stayed here have outperformed--but that's a debate for another day).

Here are the numbers on Fortune 500 headquarters in New York over time; the exodus  actually ceased over 20 years ago:

• 1965:  128 of the F500
• 1976:   84
• 1986:   53
• 2007:   53

And just for reference, here are the top five states by Fortune 500 headquarters as of 2007:

• New York:  57
• Texas:  56
• California:  52
• Illinois:  33
• Ohio:  28

Even companies that have formally relocated their headquarters, with all the ancillary staff that usually implies, more often than not keep a core group of finance, design, marketing, and other professionals in New York, and you can be sure their key executives fly through regularly. (Even the Sage of Omaha almost invariably announces his big deals in New York.)

Similarly, as recently as 10 years ago, New York was where essentially all new significant company listings occurred. Since then, for a variety of reasons including Sarbanes-Oxley, the "Spitzer Effect," and even (I say this speculatively) America's relative fall from international grace, new listings on London's AIM, in Hong Kong, and even in Beijing are now substantial.

But New York remains the financial capital of the Americas and, I will confidently wager, will remain so as far as the eye can see.

Is its international importance diminished? To be sure. Is it at threat of becoming marginalized? Not a chance.

To some extent, the  erosion in New York's pre-eminence is an ironic reflection on how all-important it had become—and on how that importance can only decline, in a relative fashion, as Brazil,  Russia, India, China, and the Mideast grow in global importance.  But surely Orrick's Ralph Baxter has it right when he says:

"There will be some adjustment.  But there's really no way to be an American-origin firm that has anything to do with capital markets and finance without being in New York in a serious way."

On this view, New York will remain one of a handful of global financial centers, along with London, Hong Kong (or its possible Asian successor, such as Shanghai), and perhaps Dubai or another Mideast center of gravity. 

Recent months have brought a surfeit of announcements by firms of expanding finance practices in the Middle East and Asia.

Even before the financial crisis, Jay  Zimmerman, CEO of Bingham, said his firm had broadened its approach, continuing to seeek opportunity in New York but also expanding abroad, especially in Asia.

"There have been shifts in the global economy," he said. "Demographics are clearly pointing to a shift ininfluence and financial strength to Asia."

But Mr. Zimmerman added that it would be quite some time before such new markets could supplant New York, either as a financial center or a source of firm revenue.  He said that New York would remain Bingham's number-one priority for growth.

Let's not be seduced into thinking this is an all or nothing, Manichean proposition:  "New York will forever be King of the Hill or it will become irrelevant."

Consider that New York has so many established assets which are all part of the lush and verdant ecosystem sophisticated law firms needing to attract world-class talent have to have, and it's not all about stock exchanges, banks, and capital markets.  Hubs of top-end global commerce need to provide the environment to attract, please, and win the affection and allegiance of the Type A, discriminating, demanding professionals from all walks of life who together produce the pulse, the vibrancy, and yes, the romance, of a global capital:  Museums, theater, opera, restaurants, sports, universities, stores and boutiques,  a reasonably salubrious climate, great housing stock, and abundant international  air connections. These aren't built in a day.

And unless you really know New York, it may be hard to appreciate how profoundly woven into the City's warp they are.

It's not that you can find a dozen great restaurants or a spectacular concert or a wonderful theater troupe or the "nowhere else" boutique, because you can find those in a hundred or more cities worldwide.  No:  It's the depth of New York's "bench."  By which I mean:  Not only are the top 10 [pick your favorite category] institutions great, but so are the 50th, the 250th, and the 500th. I would pit a "neighborhood" New York restaurant against a top restaurant in many other cities, the chorus line at an off-Broadway show against lead dancers in other shows, and so forth.  You are welcome to call  this chauvinism or provincialism, and I'm an increasingly appreciative consumer of culture and the "urban experience" around the globe, but it's a difficult base of expertise  to replicate in short order.

Think this is a bit touchy-feely?  Think again. Studies of why corporations tend to favor large metropolitan areas for headquarters reach a common conclusion: 

"What exactly are the competitive advantages of large cities?  The central function of corporate headquarters is the acquiring and disssemination of information.  [...More specifically,] concentrations of business service firms in large cities, such as medial, law, accounting, and consulting, may enable firms to achieve cost and price advantages."

If acquiring and  disseminating information doesn't sound to you like what law firms do, what would?

But don't just take my word for it. 

Professor Bill Henderson of Indiana University School of  Law—Bloomington just published "The Changing Economic Geography of  Large US Law Firms," which analyzes the geographic  migration of lawyers in the AmLaw 200 over the past 20 years and concludes (emphasis supplied):

Our preliminary findings suggest that over the last twenty years, New York City has supplanted Washington, DC as the more interconnected market, particularly for law firms with international offices in Europe and Asia. Although profitability and revenues per lawyer appear intimately tied to presence in large global cities, particularly New York City and London, the network analysis reveals several firms that are following successful niche strategies.

Bill also produced this fabulous graphic showing the change in headcount of lawyers in AmLaw 50 firms from 1984 to 2006, by region of the US:

This shows how uneven lawyer  headcount growth has been.  In absolute numbers the growth occurred:

• Abroad: +8,012 lawyers
• New York: 7,315
• Washington, DC:  4,908
• Los Angeles:  2,453
• San Francisco:  2,430
• Chicago: 2,130
• Everywhere else (domestic): 7,372

The short story this tells is that, if you're a lawyer in BigLaw, being in a major metropolitan center is more important than ever, not less.

If you're asking yourself right about now whether this distribution mirrors that of corporate America,  the answer is not in the least. 

To dimensionalize that asymmetry, Bill undertook an ingenious analysis,  namely comparing  the percentage of Fortune 500 revenue attributable to each city to the percentage of AmLaw 200 lawyers in each city.  (Actually, it's next to impossible to determine the percentage of Fortune 500 revenue actually  "attributable" to each city, so as a proxy Bill assigned all revenue to the headquarters city.  I'm not a statistician but this  strikes me as a fair approximation.)

At one extreme, take the Midwest region (ex-Chicago), which accounts for 25.2% of Fortune 500 revenue (2004) but only 10.1% of AmLaw 200 lawyers.  The ratio of lawyers to revenue is then 0.40.  At the other extreme we have Washington, DC, with 14.7% of lawyers but only 3.4% of Fortune 500 revenue, for a ratio of 4.33.  Here are the other figures:

In macroeconomic terms, this means that New York is a net exporter of legal services (and,with more AmLaw 200 lawyers than LA, San Francisco, and Chicago combined, a huge exporter). 

The question remains—and a fair one it is—whether New York's past pride of place is prologue to future pride of place.  The answer will emerge from whether New York can continue to generate innovations—in finance, in transactions, and in capitalizing  upon changes in the regulatory environment.  And the answer to that, in turn, depends on continuing to attract the premier, take-no-prisoners, absolute best of breed talent.  So far as I can see, nothing that has happened in the last year has changed that dynamic.  Nothing.

The challenge is famously laid down in the sappy but still resonant chorus to "New York, New York:"  "If I can make it there, I can make it anywhere."  Those of us who have lived through this City's re-inventing itself roughly every decade for the past 40 years will give the last word to Jay Zimmerman: 

"I wouldn't want to bet  against New York."

1787: US Constitution, Article I, Section 2:

Representatives ... shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, ... three fifths of all other Persons.

1865: US Constitution, Amendment XIII:

Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.

1865: US Constitution, Amendment XIV:

Section 1. All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

Section 2. Representatives shall be apportioned among the several states according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each state...

1965: The Voting Rights Act of 1965, 42 USC §1973:

(a) No voting qualification or prerequisite to voting or standard, practice, or procedure shall be imposed or applied by any State or political subdivision in a manner which results in a denial or abridgement of the right of any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race or color,...

2008:

Sometimes there's no substitute for being there.

This couuld be the introduction to a column about why technology, Web 2.0, and collaboration at a distance all add up to precisely zero threat to places like New York and London--making them, in fact, more important than ever--but I have a different road in mind. The road I want to go down today is about interpretation and nuance coming out of shared experiences, and how widely they may vary.

Our text for today is the National Law Journal's article "Survival Tips for Law Firms," covering a presentation on "The Law Firm of the Future -- Who Will Be the New Winners and Losers?" that I gave at DRI's annual convention in New Orleans last week. Here's the line from the article that got my attention (emphasis mine):

The law firms that survive during these trying economic times are the ones that are willing to discount rates, said panelists, which included Bruce MacEwen, a New York-based law firm consultant; Sheryl Willert of Williams Kastner in Seattle; Patricia Diaz Dennis, senior vice president and assistant general counsel of AT&T; and Raymond Williams of DLA Piper's Philadelphia office.

That's actually not what I said. But what do I know? I was only there.

With all deference and utmost respect to the reporter, understanding the demands of delivering from remote locations on deadline, the fascinating aspect of this story to me is how perceptions of the "same" event experienced by different people end up producing such different impressions.

So what did I talk about at the DRI annual meeting?

• The client/law firm disconnect
  • Two-thirds of law firms give themselves an A on client service, but fewer than 1 client in 5 does
  • 85% of clients rank us poorly based on our understanding of their needs
  • But 85% of them say they explain what they need very clearly
  • 60% of clients are unwilling to share investments in knowledge and training
  • But over 80% want to "share" cost over-runs
• The billable hour conundrum
  • Now that we can itemize to the dime what we did, by whom, when, and where, we think we're bulletproof on fees
  • But this is only an invitation to clients to micro-scrutinize what we actually did, and to tell us that we did it (a) unnecessarily; (b) with the wrong people; or (c) inefficiently
  • Wouldn't it be better, after all, if we could just get back to "For professional services rendered: $XX,000"?
  • As for "professsional services rendered," do you think it's a pipe dream? Go back 30 years (or less, where client trust prevailed) and it was commonplace. I'd like to think it would become commonplace again during the remainder of my career.
• The requirement to make your clients look good
  • Impeccable lawyering is, and has been for a long time, table stakes. Any serious AmLaw 100 or 200 firm can do your deal or defend your litigation with, in all likelihood, utter competence.
  • But true client service goes beyond that. An associate GC at Goldman Sachs calls legal advice "level 1" service, but you want to get to is "level 2." "Level 2" is "that you make me look good; you don't just return my emails, you figure out what I need to be totally prepared for this internal meeting I have coming up, and you advise me on that. Because that's where you distinguish yourself."

Back to the beginning: How could it be that it was reported that I recommended, in a soundbite, discounting rates--which I firmly disavow as a strategic model, and which I never have and never will advise--as opposed to all the thngs enumerated above that I actually thought I did say?

Actually, I can't answer that question. As I said, reporters in remote locations under deadline file stories. That's their job and I commend them for it. In my experience, they are almost without exception responsible, accessible, and committed to their craft.

My answer is on a slightly different level: They no longer have the last word. The famous "Mainstream Media" have lost their monopoly.

Look at the news that was reported in the space of a single week:

• The Christian Science Monitor will no longer publish in print, but only online.
• The Newark Star-Ledger, on track to lose $40-million this year, is laying off 40% of its newsroom staff.
• Time Inc. is laying off 600 people.
• The long decline in newspaper circulation appears to be accelerating, with drops occurring "nearly across the board."

Should we then be wringing our hands at the (inevitable, no matter how much they may protest) impairment of editorial coverage? I for one counsel optimism. How is that possible? Look around. There have never in history been more media outlets than there are now.

Other publications, including, I would fervently hope, "Adam Smith, Esq.," cover important issues with substance and depth in ways that conventional distribution models cannot always match. Imagine, if you will (yes, I've tried this thought experiment myself) bringing a business plan to a venture capitalist proposing, 5 years ago, to launch something resembling "Adam Smith, Esq.," but to do it as a monthly print publication. You would be escorted to the door before you could open your laptop. Why? Because it would be perfectly obvious that assembling a global audience of people interested in something as arcane (yes, I can say that) as "the economics of law firms" would be a fool's errand.

But, to launch the same publication online would be, and has been, entirely feasible:

• It permits you to "publish" multiple times per month, essentially at will, as topics develop;
• Everything is archived, and available through a click, in perpetuity;
• The combined power of word of mouth and my best friend, "Forward," will help grow circulation;
• The marginal cost of an additional copy is zero;
• It's available on demand across a variety of platforms from desktops to smart phones;
• And by now you get the idea: One would be a fool to launch any new publication other than online.

Don't for a moment think I'm Holier than Thou: Online publications can err as egregiously or more so than mainstream media--certainly if they're unreflective and sensational (I don't need to name names). But we have enough experience now with the media, onlne and off, to know who we believe and who we suspect of bias, who we know writes to unyielding daily deadlines and who publishes to the clock of a different drummer, who has column-inches to fill and who doesn't.

Herewith the first and last discussion you will ever read in these pages about the conventional publishing model.

Thank you for reading "Adam Smith, Esq."

In the nearly five-year history of "Adam Smith, Esq.," you could have counted the number of guest columns on one finger.  As of today, make that two.

The following comes from E. Leigh Dance (see immediately below), who has a strong perspective on what globalization means for our industry.  Thanks, Leigh.

E. Leigh Dance
For 15 years E. Leigh Dance has led the global legal services consultancy, ELD International, working with global law firms and corporate law departments around the world.  She is based in Rome and New York and has a London office. 

Earlier this month Thomas Friedman, in his October 5 New York Times column, wrote about the implications of our suddenly new age.  He describes what we're moving into as "globalization and financial integration on steroids." 

"Even though the dollar has strengthened a bit lately," Friedman says, "we are going to need foreigners and sovereign wealth funds from China, Asia, Europe and the Middle East more than ever to survive this crisis...  In the process, we are going to become even more intertwined and dependent on the rest of the world."

While many firms rightly focus on cash flow today, there's also the question of globalization.  American law firms, by and large, have a long way to go.  Adam Smith, Esq. has commented in the past (including in a June 4th column) that New York firms are behind the eight-ball (and behind the Magic Circle) in their international growth.  Whichever side of the proverbial pond, law firms cannot assume they've become global when more than 85% of their fee earners are practicing domestic law and based domestically.  
Of the AmLaw Global 100 (newly released this month), only 38 have more than 15% of their lawyers outside of home country. 

Of the Global 100 firms with offices in at least three countries, a few numbers:

Firm (overall ranking)             % of lawyers outside home country

Kirkland & Ellis (11)                8%
Greenberg Traurig (12)          4%
Morgan Lewis (17)                  7%
Slaughter & May (32)               8%
Bingham McCutchen (39)      4%
Foley & Lardner (41)               <1%
Proskauer Rose (49)              4%
King & Spalding (50)               4%
Holland & Knight (51)             <1%
Pillsbury (57)                            2%

... and at the opposite end of the spectrum:

Firm (overall ranking)             % of lawyers outside home country
Clifford Chance (1)                 65%
Linklaters (2)                           62%
Freshfields (3)                        67%
Baker & McKenzie (4)            82%
Allen & Overy (6)                     59%
White & Case (10)                 66%
DLA Piper Int'l (16)*               51%
Lovells (22)                             76%
Norton Rose (56)                   51%
Simmons & Simmons (59)     60%
*DLA Int'l does not include US - DLA Piper US is separate,only domestic

We know that the UK firms expanded internationally more quickly--the size of their home market dictated it.  Many UK firms are also ahead in fostering the diversity (origin, not race) of their lawyers and the firm's approach to serving clients from many places. 

Of course, UK firms have a glaring gap in their coverage that seriously discounts their lead in other countries:  the US.  The US makes up the lion's share of the world's legal market, and American firms have kept much of their manpower where the money is.  But the make-up of the US market is changing.

As Adam Smith, Esq. wrote in a May 16 article, recent McKinsey research showed that top companies have differentiated themselves through global talent management, including:

• "encouraging people to get experience across multiple locations,
• regarding overseas experience as a prerequisite for promotion, and
• offering managers incentives to move talented employees to other functions or geographies."

Though there are exceptions (Cleary and Latham spring to mind), these sorts of moves have been a relatively low priority for most American law firms.  Even though much growth in work with US multinationals has been outside of the US, now we're talking about a different global equation.

As Friedman comments, the avalanche of incoming foreign capital means that the days of unilateral exercise of American power are pretty much over:  "As the old saying goes:  He who has the gold makes the rules.  Well, we no longer have as much gold, and until we get some, we will have to pay more heed to the rules of those who lend us theirs."

Both firm leadership and partners in their prime have lived through the glory days with their American or English legal systems making the rules and driving the approach to mega transactions, litigation, intellectual property, private equity and regulatory advocacy around the world.   The top Anglo Saxon law firms have excelled at serving global companies primarily run by Anglo Saxon executives according to a predominantly Anglo Saxon approach to international business.  Indeed, I am one of the Anglo-Saxon consultants who has benefitted from these glory days (though I have a few languages and several countries in my portfolio).

Last spring I moderated a roundtable of top global counsel where one General Counsel talked about his big Chinese legal team.  An American, he relayed their viewpoint, which had startled him: "Who says that future global business growth must be centered on American or western legal principles?  Why can't it come from the East-- from the Chinese, for example?"  The counsel around the table were squirming in their seats. 

What, globalization without us as the referees?  That's a whole different ball game. 

New game, new age.  In his article, Friedman quotes Jeffrey Garten, professor of trade and finance at Yale:

"Being a bigger debtor nation means losing even more of our sovereignty.  It means conducting our economic policies with an eye toward whether others approve.  It means bearing the advice and criticism that we have dispensed ad nauseam to other countries for over a half a century." 

Garten suggests that this goes beyond governments into the heart of business.  "Corporate decisions will become more sensitive to international factors, in part because more non-Americans will be on the governing boards."

US law firms with global ambitions need to look at how they can prepare to thrive.  Even if the vast majority of your workforce is here at home, that workforce needs to know lots more about navigating in the world's fastest growing markets, both externally and within the firm.  The vast majority of the lawyers in international offices of US firms tell me that their firm's operating and management style is all American. 

Nothing wrong with that, historically speaking.  But tomorrow, when more of your relationships at your big US multinational client are with non-Americans who may want to see the world and do business their way, you won't necessarily be their first choice advisors.

So what to do?  To succeed in this intertwined world, law firms must go beyond the cliché and foster a truly international mindset.  Just as important but far less tangible than the new Dubai office is changing service delivery to meet demands of non-American and globalized American businesses.  It has to be part of your plan.  Global talent management is just one piece of that profound and demanding strategy, and it goes beyond hiring foreign laterals. 

It's also important to reconsider and adjust your practice growth strategies for the fundamental differences in practice approach and dynamics across geographic markets.  Train lawyers and staff to work effectively in multi-cultural teams.  Hire people at home and abroad that speak several languages and have grown up in more than one country.  Move your institutional assets (of every age) across borders, including into the US.

Building cultural adaptability and capability is not easy.  But from my vantage point, you'll have to take Friedman's (and Darwin's) word for it:  you don't really have a choice.  

I am happy to re-publish the press release issued this morning by ThomsonReuters reporting on a new alliance we have struck.

For my purposes, the value of this will be being able to offer you, my readers, an additional perspective on legal industry market conditions at a time when they might be of particular interest.