Will Cognitive Bias Torpedo SOX?
If one truly loves a discipline, as I do economics, one must be prepared to celebrate, and not to decry, challenges to its bedrock dogma. Under attack of late has been the postulate of the purely rational utility-maximizing Homo Economicus.
As a Princeton alum, I'm pleased to report that some of the ground-breaking—and Nobel Prize-winning—work in this area has been done by Princeton's own Professor Daniel Kahneman. It turns out that none of us, up to and including JD/MBA's, can escape built-in human cognitive biasses including:
- "anchoring," or giving irrational weight to a negotiation's starting point (think "Manufacturer's suggested retail price" on the car-lot);
- "framing," or essentially starting with the wrong analytic toolset;
- optimism (self-explanatory, and God bless it);
- overconfidence (self-explanatory, and often a curse), and;
- self-serving bias.
The last deserves special mention: A study presented a cross-section of auditors at a Big Four firm with five ambiguous auditing vignettes and asked if they deemed them GAAP-compliant. Half the auditors were told to imagine they worked for the firm in question and half that they worked for a firm thinking of doing business with the other firm. The first group was 30% more likely to bless the financials than the second.
http://www.bmacewen.com/blog/archives/2004/06/will_cognitive.html
