August 20, 2005
Coudert, RIP (2)
Update 2: Here's the Bloomberg News story, in which yours truly is quoted.
Update 3: The Wall Street Journal.
Update 4: The New York Law Journal. This article implies that one reason a firm-saving merger couldn't be pulled off at the end was "unrealistic expectations" at Coudert about the value of its franchise.
If true, this is a textbook example of a market failing to "clear"—meaning the situation where buyers and sellers have competely discordant notions of value. The most common situation in which this occurs is when a particular asset class (just for example, say, residential real estate on the US coasts) has experienced a sustained run-up in price.
Unsustainable price increases come to an end typically not when buyers and sellers both suddenly come to their senses, but when buyers get cold feet (a/k/a start looking at intrinsic value). Sellers want to continue to believe the 20%/year growth is still in effect, as it were, and when they find no takers at that extrapolated level, they refuse to lower the price and often just take the asset off the market. Liquidity drastically declines, and it can take years for psychology to readjust. Coudert didn't have years.
Posted by Bruce at August 20, 2005 8:00 AM | TrackBackPosted to Globalization Printer-friendly version
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