Prospects for 2008: Another Precinct Heard From

So once it's in The Wall Street Journal it must be a real phenomenon, right?

I'm referring to today's "Why BigLaw Is Bracing for a Leaner 2008," along with its companion piece on the WSJ Law Blog.

A sampling of the evidence adduced behind the hypothesis of leaner times:

• "'Firms will see their work slow down this year,' says Regina Pisa, chairman of law firm Goodwin Procter LLP. 'There's no question about it.'"
• "'We have an uncertain environment for revenue growth in 2008, and that is the kindest thing I can say,' says Dan DiPietro, who works with large law firms as the client head at Citi Private Bank Law Firm Group."
• "Law firms 'are very much participants in the broader economy; we're very influenced by what is happening in the world,' says Greg Jordan, global managing partner at Reed Smith."

What's to be done?

Bill Perlstein of WilmerHale and Cesar Alvarez of Greenberg Traurig offer inarguable advice:

• A.  Watch associate and staff headcount like a hawk.
• B.  Watch real estate commitments even more closely.
• Take a scalpel, but not a meat cleaver, to your expenses (if you've done A & B, there's not much left here).
• Bill promptly and stay on top of receivables.

Those all amount to "known knowns"—things we always should be doing, that are plain as day, and which have an obvious impact. 

But the "unknown known"—the thing that we also know will have a tremendous impact, but we can't predict whether that impact will be good or bad—is whether the fabled a-cylicality of law firms' business will hold true this time around as it seems to have, faithfully, in the past.  Greg Jordan, notably, is predicting that it will not work out for us this time, and that the storm clouds of this down cycle will rain on us as well. 

I remain in the posture of the "worried optimist."  I believe the almost across-the-board repricing and re-evaluation of lending will, relatively soon, spark a fresh wave of both litigation (pointing blame being the first reaction to anyone caught with their financial pants down) and of creative and time-consuming restructuring work on the transactional side as the flow of credit which is so indispensable to the economy's functioning resumes.  And the new loans, lines, and facilities won't look like the old ones:   No more "covenant light" deals.

But if not covenant light, then?—covenant "heavy."  Which takes lawyers.

Maybe when Ron Papa, chair of Proskauer's corporate department, is "walking the halls" to see "who's working at night and on weekends," this is what he's seeing.