"Think Different?" Who, Me?

Consider your reactions to these three hypothetical scenarios:

• In light of slack demand, BMW announces a combination of price cuts, rebates, and financing incentives that would save you 15%. More or less likely to visit a dealer?
• The Dow Jones Industrials are down 15% year to date. More or less likely to add stocks to your portfolio?
• Reflecting softened deal flow in their area of expertise, a boutique firm that would be a nice fit with your firm announces revenue down 15% year over year. More or less likely to invite their managing partner to dinner?

Of course all three scenarios are structurally all but indistinguishable. So why would your instinct be to run to the BMW dealer, hold your fire on further stock investments, and postpone the dinner invitation for another few quarters to see what happens?

The good news, such as it is, is that if those are your reactions, you're in ample company. Actually, the first two scenarios—the "15% off sale" on BMW's and on stocks are by now a classic example of the irrationality of homo economicus. We love getting a deal on goods and services (and new homes, anyone??), but when investments are "on sale," we run for the hills.

But here at "Adam Smith, Esq.," we don't cover BMW's or the stock market, so let's focus on scenario #3.

Fortunately, yesterday morning's New York Times published a piece, "Mergers in a Time of Bears," speaking to #3. It describes a study published in this month's Academy of Management Journal (evidently unavailable online) which it summarizes thus:

"Most mergers fail.

"If that’s not a bona fide fact, plenty of smart people think it is. McKinsey & Company says it’s true. Harvard, too. Booz Allen Hamilton, KPMG, A. T. Kearney — the list goes on. If a deal enriches an acquirer’s shareholders, the statistics say, it is probably an accident.

"But a new study puts a twist on the conventional wisdom. It’s not that all deals fail. It’s just that timing appears to be everything. Deals made at the very beginning of a merger cycle regularly succeed. It’s the rest that fall flat."

The statistical analysis behind this provocative (but intuitively attractive) proposition must remain opaque, not only because the primary source seems unavailable, but because, as theTimes describes the methodology somewhat unhelpfully: "The professors measured the acquirers’ stock appreciation or deprecation by using a fancy calculation of what they call “abnormal returns,” which examined share prices five days before the announcement of the acquisition and prices 15 days later. The math is complicated, but they say the “abnormal return” is predictive of stock performance in the future."

Be that as it may, and taking the good professors at their word, what's really going on here?

My emphatic diagnosis of what is not going on here is "Think Different." What is going on here is the herd mentality affecting behavior and decision-making at the highest level. And we are reminded that that is no way to outperform the market. "Baron Philippe de Rothschild, ever an opportunist, is said to have advised, 'Buy when there’s blood in the streets.'" Warren Buffett has clearly subscribed to this advice, if not to its precise expression at the hands of Baron Rothschild.

The moral of this to me is clear: Being a victim of bandwagon effects is no way to exercise leadership and in spades it is no way to steal a march on your competitors. I assume you all noticed that Latham announced last week the simultaneous opening of three new offices in the Middle East (in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha). This is not shrinking-violet behavior, and it's not batten-down-the-hatches behavior. In my opinion, it's straight out of the Corporate Finance 101 playbook: Increase portfolio diversity, reduce Beta, maintain returns.

But you have to be willing to diversify. Buy more stocks. Schedule dinner with that managing partner. Or, as the Times less circumspectly puts it, "C.E.O.’s should stop being such scaredy-cats. While everyone else is battening down the hatches, go make a deal."