The American Lawyer not only has a spiffy new website, but this afternoon @ 3pm NY time they offered their first-ever webinar, hosted by Aric Press,  offering a preview of the AmLaw 100 for 2007.   The full results will be released tonight (look for a link here on "Adam Smith, Esq.") but first, a "flash report" from the webinar.

• Total combined revenue of the AmLaw 100 in 2007 totaled $64.5-billion, up 13.6% year over year.
• Revenue per lawyer, one of my favorite statistics (and apparently one of Aric's as well) grow 6.4% to an average of $820,000.
• Lawyer headcount was up 7% to 78,000 lawyers.
• But the slowest-growing component of that headcount, equity partners, comprised barely 23% of total headcount.
• At current rates, nonequity partners will outnumber equity partners in a mere 7 years; they already do at 21 firms (and across the entire AmLaw 100 they comprise 35% of all partners).
• The ranks of equity partners grew just 2.6% last year (about 5 partners for the "average" firm), and for the past five years the growth rate has surpassed the 21-year average growth rate of 3.2% only once (in 2003)
• Moreover:
  • 37 firms actually shrank the number of equity partners last year;
  • 4 showed no change; and
  • 8 firms added only 1 or two. 
• Skadden and Latham have both broken the $ 2.0-billion revenue/year barrier.
• In terms of PPP, 19 firms are now at $2-million or above, a gain of four firms over 2006.
• Wachtell (what a shock) remained king of the PPP hill at $4.9-million.
• Average PPP for the 100 is now $1.3-million, and median PPP is $1.2-million.
  • This means, rather insultingly, that a full dozen firms with a PPP number >$1-million find themselves in the bottom half of their peer group on this metric.
• New York continues to be a special place.  The difference between RPL for historically New York-based firms vs. non-New York firms is 41% ($1.1-million RPL for NY, $780,000 for non-NY).   Note that because this is calculated using "historic headquarters," firms such as Latham and Kirkland are, statistically, "non-NY" firms, so the "real" divergence is certainly greater.
• But overall, we have been, as Aric puts it, in a golden age, with five years in a row of growth in both RPL and PPP exceeding the historic averages.  To be specific:
  • In the five years starting in 2003, RPL has grown $205,000:  It took 10 years for it to grow by the same amount before 2003.
  • And as for PPP, since 2003 it has grown $438,000:  It took fully 15 years to grow by that amount before 2003.
• Is the great run now over?  By all current indications, it seems to be.  Deal volume is sharply down and, so far at least, litigation, restructuring, and bankruptcy have not yet stepped fully up to the plate. 
• Yet simplistic year-on-year comparisons can be misleading.  So, for the first time ever that I'm aware of, The American Lawyer explicitly ranked firms over the past ten year period based on their RPL—not total revenue and not PPP.  The results?  Absolutely fascinating:
  • 41 firms more or less ended where they began on this "relative RPL" ranking.
  • Of the remaining 59:
    • 12 dissolved or were absorbed by merger;
    • 20 improved their RPL by double digits;
    • 15 saw their RPL drop by double digits:
    • 7 moved from the bottom half of the distribution to the top half; and
    • 5 slid from the top half to the bottom half.
• The biggest movers on the ten-year RPL ranking were:
  • Dechert, up 35 slots.
  • Akin Gump, + 34.
  • DLA, + 31.
  • Chadbourne, down 44 slots,
  • And each of Dewey, King & Spalding, and White & Case down 20 slots.

What else do Aric and his colleagues at TAL foresee?

In many ways, their vision is aligned with what I would predict:

• Despite the current economic challenges (including the fact that the new and improved level of associate salaries will be with us for the full  2008 fiscal year, pushing costs to a permanently high new plateau), in the long run the increasing complexity of the economy, the rise of globalization and cross-border trade, and the increasing sophistication of our clients all argue that the long-run demand for high-end legal services will be perfectly healthy.  Indeed, in his keynote at the recent Georgetown symposium on "The Future of the Global Law Firm," Ralph Baxter, CEO of Orrick, prophesied that we would need more, not fewer, lawyers in the future.  ("Too few lawyers?!") 
• And yet the gap between richer and poorer is growing ever-wider. 

Again, look for full coverage after the entire list is released tomorrow.

I'm back from the two-day "Future of the Global Law Firm" symposium at Georgetown Law School, which was organized by Prof. Mitt Regan of Georgetown, Prof. Larry Ribstein of the University of Illinois, and myself. You may read other coverage of this elsewhere, as in attendance were Aric Press of The American Lawyer, Leigh Jones of The National Law Journal, David Lat of AboveTheLaw, and other reporters.

But herewith the "Adam Smith, Esq." report:

We had about 130 attendees, roughly one-quarter academics and legal scholars and three-quarters practitioners and senior law firm leaders, from the US, the UK, Canada, and Australia. Seven panels over the course of Thursday and Friday through lunch tackled:

• The emerging dynamics of global competition.
• Ownership and capital structure, including the possibility and the desirability of outside (that is, non-lawyer) investment in law firms.
• Ethics and professional values.
• Perspectives from corporate law and finance.
• Organizational and cultural dynamics, and
• Lessons from other professional service firms.

Among those attending were:

• Ralph Baxter, CEO of Orrick, who delivered the keynote Friday morning
• Ted Burke, CEO of Freshfields, who delivered the keynote Thursday morning
• Stuart Popham, senior partner of Clifford Chance, who spoke after dinner on Thursday
• Practitioner/panelists included:
  • Richard L. Weisman, Partner;former Managing Partner, China offices, Baker &
    McKenzie
  • Mark Kirsch, Chair of Global Litigation and Dispute Resolution, Clifford Chance
    
  • Stephen Denyer, International Development Partner, Allen & Overy
  • Andrew Grech, Managing Director, Slater & Gordon
  • Steven Mark, Legal Services Commissioner, New South Wales, Australia
  • Osama Rahman, Ministry of Justice, United Kingdom
  • Yours Truly
  • Anthony Davis, Lawyers for the Profession Practice Group, Hinshaw & CulbertsonLLP
  • Steven Krane, Chair, Law Firm Practice Group, Proskauer Rose;Chair, American Bar
    Association Standing Committee on Ethics and Professional Responsibility
  • JeffreyHaidet, Chairman, McKenna Long & Aldridge
  • William Perlstein, Co-Managing Partner, WilmerHale
  • Lee Miller, Joint Chief Executive Officer, DLA Piper
  • James Jones, Senior Vice-President, Hildebrandt International
  • Christopher Simmons, Managing Partner, Washington Metro Market,
    PricewaterhouseCoopers
  • Ward Bower, Principal, Altman Weil, Inc.
    
• Academics who presented papers included:
  • Peter Sherer, Professor, Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary, Predicting
    the Future of Large US Corporate Law Firms: AmLaw 2025
  • Stephen Mayson, Professor, Legal Services Policy Institute, College of Law of England
    and Wales, London, Global Law Firms: A Strategy Looking for a Market?
  • Laurel Terry, Professor, Penn State Dickinson School of Law, The EU’s Professional
    Services Competition Initiative: Is the EU Very Far Behind Australia and the UK With
    Respect to Publicly Traded Law Firms?
  • Christine Parker, Professor, University of Melbourne Law School, Australia, Peering
    Over the Ethical Precipice: Incorporation, Listing, and the Ethical Responsibilities of
    Law Firms
  • Elizabeth Chambliss, Professor, New York Law School, Law Firm General Counsel: The
    Paradox of Institutional Success?
  • John Flood, Professor, University of Westminster School of Law, Future Directions in
    the UK Legal Profession: Life After the Legal Services Act 2007
  • Larry Ribstein, Professor, University of Illinois School of Law, The Law Firm as Firm
  • Gordon Smith, Professor, J. Reuben Clark Law School, Brigham Young University,
    Form, Function, and Fiduciary Law
  • Timothy Morris, Professor and Director, Clifford Chance Centre for the Management of
    Professional Service Firms, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Navigating the
    Process of Innovation in Professional Service Firms
  • William Henderson, Professor, Indiana University School of Law, Are We Selling Results
    or Resumes? The Underexplored Linkage Between Human Resource Strategies and
    Firm-Specific Capital
  • Andrew von Nordenflycht, Professor, Segal Graduate School of Business, Simon Fraser
    University, The Demise of Professional Partnership? The Emergence and Diffusion of
    Publicly-Traded Professional Service Firms
  • Roy Suddaby, Professor, University of Alberta, School of Business, Post-
    Professionalism: How Multidisciplinary Accounting Firms are Reshaping Professional
    Institutions

If I were rationed to just one word to encapsulate the conference's theme, it would be: Change.

Lawyers are notoriously poor at coping with change: Indeed, recent psychological research indicates that change is not just hard, but actually causes physical and mental discomfort. (One managing partner recounted being faced with a near insurrection among half a dozen partners when he had the temerity to relocate their Washington, DC office by all of one short city block. I must confess that that may set a new bar for resistance to change.)

Yet change is in our futures, like it or not. More than once the observation was made that from the invention of the Cravath System around the turn of the 20th Century through about 1985, the profession looked remarkably stable, but that the last 20 years have seen revolutionary changes and the next decade promises further departures at least as radical as those we've just experienced.

Among the overall trends driving change are

• Segmentatation, meaning the increasing gap between firms able to win the highest-level, most complex work for the most demanding (and price-insensitive) clients, and other firms forced to compete on the basis of price and increasingly high client expectations for service quality, responsiveness, and consistency. Once price becomes a material part of a client's selection criteria, unfortunately, firms have put one foot on an escalator that goes in only one direction. And segmentation is driving the evolution of our industry not just at the top, in AmLaw 25 land, but at every level of the industry, including regional firms, boutiques, and even "the 22 lawyer firm in Vienna, Virginia."
• Globalization. It's no longer the exceptional corporation that has substantial business abroad, it's the exceptional corporation that doesn't. This trend is not going to reverse or decelerate. 20 years ago the percentage of lawyers working at NLJ 250 firms who were in overseas offices was just a few percent. Today it's nearly 17% and grew 11% in just the last year alone.
• Consolidation. 20 years ago the AmLaw 50 accounted for about 6% of all private, for-profit law firm revenue in the US. Today they capture over 25% of that revenue.

Other themes?

Scarcely a panelist failed to mention—or concentrate on—the "war for talent" and the challenges posed to the traditional law firm career ladder by Gen Y. (Yes, the usual caveats were added about how it can be misleading to generalize about an age cohort, since individual differences always outweigh broad demographic brush-strokes, but the point is universally acknowledged nevertheless.)

A particularly painful reality on this landscape is that, for about the past 30 years, essentially 50% of law school graduates have been women, yet throughout most of that time span, the number of female partners in the AmLaw 100 has hovered at a fairly constant 15-18%. Finally, I believe, firms are going to face up to the reality that they need to take fresh approaches to the dilemma created by the fact that the prime child-bearing and family-starting years happen to coincide quite nicely with the path-to-partnership tournament years. Proposals for innovative "off-ramp" and "on-ramp" programs were floated, some potentially in conjunction with forward-looking law schools (like Georgetown) to "de-couple" those time frames.

But the overall tone of the symposium was the simultaneous thrust of excitement and challenge balanced against the uncertain and the unknown.

Would outside equity ownership be a boon or a curse?

Why exactly do law firms need capital? Aren't we labor-intensive businesses, not capital intensive (A: As currently conceived, we are. But why is the current static model necessarily the model for a dynamic future?)

What has been the history of other professional service firms that have invited outside investors?

Will outsourcing and globalization in general (permitting work to be done in the lowest-cost jurisdiction, be that IT and HR support, or paralegal or e-discovery services) supplant the model of teams of extremely high-priced and highly educated professionals operating out of Class AAA space in the center of the world's financial capitals?

Will we lose the partnership ethos? (Laura Empson of Cass Business School gave a particularly nice presentation on this at lunchtime Thursday, positing that useful ways of thinking about partnership might be as analogous to The Three Musketeers, to Henry V's famous "band of brothers" speech before the Battle of Agincourt, to a buccaneer pirate ship, or, at last, to "Gone With the Wind.")

Can the partnership ethos survive outside the legal form of a partnership? (Yes, seemed to be the consensus--albeit challenging to do so.)

Would outside ownership actually threaten ethical behavior in law firms? In this connection, three salient points were made:

• We see no evidence of publicly owned companies in other industries behaving unethically as a pattern: No airlines cutting corners on safety, no pharmaceutical companies cavalier about product tampering, and, to be sure, no one questioning Goldman Sachs' advice since their IPO.
• Could the pressure to achieve profits from passive, minority-interest outside shareholders possibly be greater than the competitive pressures to achieve maximum PPP from the press, and to retain and attract talented partners?
• And lastly, note this well: In the famous flameouts of Enron, Worldcom, et al., the "whistleblowers" with integrity were inside the corporations, not in external auditing or law firms. If anything, this data point suggests that professionals in publicly held firms do not surrender their ethical obligations at the door.

Should we be optimistic about the overall global demand for law? I believe we should. After all, don't globalizing corporations require more, not less, legal advice? (As strange as it may seem to say, could we need, in a word, more lawyers?) The "rule of law" is not, after all, self-executing.

Clients are becoming more demanding, to be sure, but it's misapprehending the situation to think it's all about fees or price; rather, it's about actually comprehending the clients' businesses. In a sense, isn't this development "back to the future," back to a day when lawyers intimately knew their clients and were institutionally close to them in ways that are unusual today? More than a few name-brand law firms, according to their managing partners, are investing more in institutionalizing the client relationship than they are in any other recent initiative, even to the point of creating a "client relationship" dimension as a third organizational dimensional matrix on top of the familiar two of practice groups and geographical footprint.

The value of human capital--the "war for talent" again--has never been higher. But it's now beyond partners and associates to non-lawyer staff and C-suite executives. Among all these groups, lawyers included, it's no longer enough to be merely technically excellent. Today's clients and today's environment call for people with high levels of "emotional intelligence" and right-brain capabilities. If this is right, we need to re-think the ideal profile of a partner (and I believe strongly that it's right).

Also, if we value human capital, what's to fear from "outsourcing?" Isn't that just another way of saving a generation of associates from the equivalent of being consigned to working in the textile mills of e-discovery? (Whenever politicians rail against NAFTA or other free trade agreements, I always wonder which voters are out there desperately hoping their children have the opportunity to grow up and go to work in a textile mill.) Perhaps young associates should be exposed to one and only one tour of duty in e-discovery, but we know for a fact that too much of that is why on average they leave after 2.5-3.0 years. Wouldn't you?

Finally, as to the future, my own belief is that assuming the Legal Services Act comes into effect as currently scheduled in the UK, the inevitable flow of money from some firms that will take advantage of outside investment (and there will be some firms) will sluice into the US. Trying to stop the flow through prohibition and regulation will only lead to feckless, disruptive, and pointless excursions into attempted micro-management of global law firms' capital structure, an effort unrealistic at its core and doomed to swift failure. If you doubt money's vibrant ability to find its own level, I have three words for you: "campaign finance reform."

At the point where bar associations here, sclerotic and paleolithic as they are, are forced to confront a new marketplace reality, they will actually have no alternative but to respond in ways that recognize and accommodate that reality, and to get over their hundred years' war against genuine competition in the profession. And, it is my devout hope, they will awaken to the need for a "level playing field" in our global economy.

On this point, the insanity of firms' being potentially subject to 51 different jurisdictional bar authorities in the United States was, without exception, roundly denounced. GE (for example) gets to choose whether it wishes to be incorporated in Connecticut, New York, California, Delaware, or somewhere else entirely. Why shouldn't Latham have the same choice?

The conversation on this topic, brief as it was, focused on acknowledging the blisteringly obvious antique anomaly of "presence-based" regulation. The only interesting note to add is that corporate clients would presumably be roundly in favor of unitary law firm bar regulation since it would at once obviate the need to hire duplicative local counsel in jurisdictions far and wide for no commercial, economic, or strategic purpose.

Do we have all the answers?

I've never been at a conference before where so many readily admitted to so few answers. But that's the way entrepreneurship and innovation proceed. Not by knowing to a fare-thee-well what all will work, by specifying it exhaustively in advance, but by experimenting. New businesses are not created by figuring out in advance every possible contingency that could go wrong and only launching then; they're created by the "ready, fire, aim," mindset. Or, as I said in a prior life as CEO of a dot-com, "mid-course corrections are my middle name."

In my own presentation, I took issue with the assumption that our industry is not capital-intensive by opining that that's static, not dynamic, thinking, constituting a great failure of imagination. And by analogy I used evolution's famous "Cambrian Explosion" (great video courtesy of WGBH here) . If you're not familiar with this, the story is simple:

• For the first 3-1/2 billion of the Earth's 4-billion years, all nature knew how to produce were single-celled organisms: Algae, fungi, protozoa, etc.
• Then, from about 530-580-million years ago, evolution came upon and exploited the miraculous invention of multi-cellular organisms.
• Every single order of Animalia that exists today was invented during the Cambrian explosion.
• There were a huge number of dead ends, wrong turns, mistaken detours, and fundamentally bad designs (creatures with five eyes)
• But there was a never-before-or-since efflorescence of innovation including such truly useful structures as eyes, ears, scent, and four limbs. (Four limbs, if you're interested in mobility, are Truly Useful. There's a reason cars have four wheels.)

Do we know where it's all going, or where, as some linear extrapolations had it, where we'll be in 2025 as an industry? Not on your life.

But could you or I imagine such a conference even as recently as three years ago? Not I.

Hope to see you three years hence at the next conference.

Updates:  29 April 2008

Two addenda which have come in since I originally published this.  The first is an article, which is self-explanatory, and the second is an incisive comment by the General Counsel of a Fortune 500.

Second, we have our astute GC's thoughts:

"Bruce -- Sounds like an interesting conference.  It's a shame that in-house counsel appear to be poorly represented – after all, we are the reason for existence of most private practice counsel (and ultimately the source of revenue to support the legal education system).  Those attending have a high degree of interest in maintenance of the current extremely profitable and robust status quo as opposed to being agents for change.  The in-house community needs legal service providers as we simply cannot in-source all our work.  As such we need our law firms to be profitable.  We can move to a world where law firms are merely suppliers or one where they are partners and accept risk and reward in exchange for value -- but in either case, change must occur.  That change must take place at the law schools which need to train and produce counselors not lawyers (i.e., more focus on practical delivery of real world legal services) and at the law firms that must change their economic model to focus on profits through cost reductions as opposed to top line revenue growth.  We simply must begin a dialogue to focus on value -- and that means achieving the business client's objectives effectively and efficiently.  Generally speaking, clients are not interested in winning cases or answering interesting questions of law -- we are interested in reaching our business objectives profitably and with a focus on compliance and stakeholder value.  If there is indeed a war for talent, I do not believe it's a war that clients are asking law firms to fight, much less are willing to pay for.”

As for the relative paucity of inhouse counsel, guilty as charged.  As one of the organizers of the conference, all I can offer in mitigation is that we wanted law firm leaders to feel free to speak openly about their appetite for change and we perhaps assumed a little too casually that the presence of a large representation of GC's would make people feel defensive or guarded.  A senior representative of the ACCA was there, however, and made some of the very points advanced by our GC friend here.

I'll continue to update this as additional commentary comes in.

I'm at the Georgetown Law Conference on the "Future of the Global Law Firm" for the next couple of days.

I'll try to report in as close to real time as I can, but whether or not I achieve that objective, look here on "Adam Smith, Esq." for the most complete coverage of this promising and unprecedented conference.

While I believe (as I've written) that times like these provide for the potential emergence of new leaders and laggards—based on who can more nimbly navigate the opportunities that the current deviation from "steady as she goes" provides—I also believe that the temptation to meet largely self-imposed revenue and/or income targets can lead one into peril.  Two stories in the past 24 hours exemplify the danger.

From The Wall Street Journal, a nicely done historic recap of why Merrill Lynch seems to be on track to break a record it would rather leave stand, by writing down more than $30 billion and posting a third straight quarterly loss, the longest losing streak in its 94 years:

"The first tremor that rattled Merrill's profitable business of underwriting mortgage securities came at the end of 2005. As it repackaged mortgage bonds into securities called collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, Merrill had a key partner in insurer American International Group Inc. An AIG unit bore the default risk of the CDOs' largest and highest-rated chunk, known as the "super-senior" tranche, normally sold to big investors such as foreign banks.

"But AIG was keeping a close eye on the housing boom because it had another unit that made subprime loans, those to home buyers with weak credit. AIG did a review of the market. Concerned that home-lending standards were getting too lax, AIG at the end of 2005 stopped insuring mortgage securities.

"Merrill was used to having to keep lots of mortgage bonds and pieces of CDOs on its books temporarily before selling them. But without a firm like AIG providing credit insurance, Merrill had to bear the risk of default itself.

"Instead of scaling back its underwriting of CDOs, however, Merrill put the business in overdrive. It began holding on its own books large chunks of the highest-rated parts of CDOs whose risk it couldn't offload.

"Merrill was able to hang onto the top spot in Wall Street's CDO-underwriting ranks."

The efforts to sustain the CDO gravy train became more brazen than just assuming additional trading risk.  John Breit, described as a "senior risk manager," was overruled—an event without precedent—when he objected to certain Canadian underwritings.  He submitted a letter of resignation to the CFO but was given a different position outside risk management stayed at the firm. 

Another executive who had a custom of limiting CDO exposure was dismissed in mid-2006, and a senior trader "without much experience in mortgage securities" was installed to oversee the function of taking CDO's onto Merrill's own books. 

As the housing market began visibly deteriorating in 2007, Merrill could (says the Journal) have ended its exposure to the mortgage-backed market at the price of a $1.5-$3-billion writeoff.  "Instead, Merrill tried a different strategy: quickly turn the bonds into more CDOs."  The goal was evidently to stay at the top of the league tables, and they achieved that soon to be dubious distinction:

"In the first seven months of 2007, Merrill created more than $30 billion in mortgage CDOs, according to Dealogic, keeping Merrill No. 1 in Wall Street underwriting for this type of security."

But the music quickly stopped and John Thain, the new CEO, is now hard at work upgrading risk controls—even to the point of rehiring the risk-conscious executive they fired in 2006.  And if I read the story right, the price of avoiding a $1.5-3 billion writeoff a year ago will end up being $30-billion in writeoffs.

Separately, The New York Times yesterday featured a story covering a book about to be published advancing the theory that what caused the Titanic to sink as fast as it did (in merely 2-1/2 hours) were poor quality rivets that popped and turned what were six small slits into wounds open to the sea. 

At the time of the Titanic's construction (1911-1912), steel rivets installed by machine were the highest standard, as was "best best" metal to make the rivets.  But the ship's builder, Harland and Wolff of Belfast, Northern Ireland (still in business today) was severely overtaxed in its shipbuilding capacity as it was simultaneously assembling the Titanic's two sister ships, the Olympic and the Britannic.  Each required 3 million rivets.  According to the new book, shortages of both rivets and riveters peaked while the Titanic was under construction:

"'The board was in crisis mode,' one of the authors, Jennifer Hooper McCarty, who studied the archives, said in an interview. 'It was constant stress. Every meeting it was, ‘There’s problems with the rivets and we need to hire more people.''"

Forced to reach beyond its usual suppliers to smaller, less skilled and experienced forges, and choosing to buy merely "best" rather than "best best" iron, Harland and Wolff also reached out to inexperienced and green riveters and chose to economize at the bow and stern of the Titanic by using iron rather than steel rivets (which were used amidships).  Famously, the iceberg hit near the bow.

"The company also faced shortages of skilled riveters, the archives showed. Dr. McCarty said that for a half year, from late 1911 to April 1912, when the Titanic set sail, the company’s board discussed the problem at every meeting. For instance, on Oct. 28, 1911, Lord William Pirrie, the company’s chairman, expressed concern over the lack of riveters and called for new hiring efforts.

In their research, the scientists, who are metallurgists, found that good riveting took great skill. The iron had to be heated to a precise cherry red color and beaten by the right combination of hammer blows. Mediocre work could hide problems."

Could better rivets have kept the Titanic afloat long enough for help to arrive?  That is the fascinating question the book implicitly poses.

Yet I have a different question:  Why was there (so it would appear) no discussion at the Harland and Wolff board meetings about slowing down production to permit first-class materials to be obtained and first-class work to be done?  Presumably egos were at stake—as egos were at stake in Merrill Lynch retaining its #1 league ranking for CDO's.

Tempted you may be to rely heavily on a familiar practice or area, and lean on it hard in these times.  If you do so, a word of caution: Park your ego at the door.

One last thing: Recognize that these are not normal economic times, and face that reality with brutal realism.

Merrill was not willing to recognize the brutal reality of the incipient subprime meltdown, even to the point of firing and demoting those who were. And Harland and Wolff ignored the potentially dire consequences of high-slag content (not "best best") iron and callow riveters.

As well as you know your business—and that actually only makes it worse—beware hubris.

First comes an FT story on clients demanding more "diversity" in City firms, then a followup letter attributing high female turnover to late night hours, next a WSJ Law Blog piece on how to keep female talent on the partnership track (featuring insights from WilmerHale and Cleary), a Working Mother story called "Young, Gifted, and Leaving" about law firm associates, and finally a lead editorial by the President of the California State Bar on "Escaping the billable hours trap."

Journalists like to say that three anecdotes constitute a trend, but here we have not three but five noteworthy articles telling us that what we're doing is essentially unsustainable. Are you paying attention?

The facts are pretty straightforward. For about the past three decades, women have constituted 50% or slightly more of law school graduates, yet they're still only about 17% of BigLaw partners. It can no longer be argued that they only need time to get through the pipeline; that argument exhausted itself about 20 years ago, and essentially nothing meaningful in the female partnership statistics has changed. Whatever we are doing and have been doing is not working if greater representation of women as partners is the goal. As the well-known joke sometimes attributed to Einstein has it, a working definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing the same way and expect a different result. We need different results.

How big is the problem? Or is it even a problem? After all, law firms are hardly suffering, and PPP numbers continue (at least through the last reporting period....) to keep growing at double-digit rates.

But the question is not whether firms are profitable on the current model; the question is whether they could do better by deciding to seriously address the problem of sacrificing such an enormous proportion of their talent pool for no evident business reason. The question, in other words, is one of opportunity costs. By doing nothing to address staggering female attrition rates, what are firms losing? Some statistics.

"The number of young female associates leaving law firms hit a record high over the past five years—with an average annual attrition rate of 19 percent, according to the National Association for Law Placement (NALP) Foundation. Not surprisingly, the higher a law firm's required number of billable hours, the higher its associate attrition rate, according to a 2006 survey by the Bar Association of San Francisco. And many of these departing associates leave for good—some 31 percent, a recent survey by MIT Workplace Center reveals. Beyond bleeding firms of top talent, this loss can affect the bottom line: Each associate who walks takes along about $300,000 in lost training and recruitment costs. A 15 percent departure rate may siphon off an average of $12 million each year from a large firm, estimates Paula Patton, CEO and president of the NALP Foundation."

Taking this beyond "diversity"

Are there plausible ways to address the female attrition rate—and the overall associate attrition rate? Are there things we're doing wrong which are kneecapping our performance as consummately professional organizations delivering superb client service, as economic engines of profit generation, and as profoundly rewarding places to work?

Yes.

But only so long as you're willing to tilt at windmills, and the windfall (pun intended) du jour is the billable hour. No matter how many stakes have been aimed at its heart, none have been driven home true.

I can't say I'm surprised. For law firms, it's cost-plus pricing: A great deal! You literally cannot lose money on that economic model. Indeed, you can produce super-normal profit margins. And for clients, it's also weirdly bulletproof. "For services rendered...." followed by a six-figure number, unitemized, is tough for the green eyeshade crowd to digest.

You may know and I may know that figure is (a) entirely appropriate; (b) thoroughly earned; (c) probably understated vs what the law firm could have charged and gotten away with, but how do you "defend" it? Billable hours are defensible in the same way parking tickets are defensible. We know what the rules are: Never mind that the rules may be fundamentally nonsensical, you can't argue with City Hall.

And what is wrong with the billable hour?

Don't take my word for it, take a page from Jeff Bleich, president of the State Bar of California:

"This mission — ensuring access and justice by all means possible — is what attracted me to the bar. It is also what makes me think we need to re-examine a practice that is threatening the capacity of lawyers to serve the public effectively: billable hours. We all know about the lifestyle burden that billable hours places on lawyers. But on a deeper level, a billable hours system is corrupting to our profession in both obvious and more subtle ways. One of the important challenges of the next generation of lawyers and bar leaders will be to find a way out of the billable hour trap."

And permit me to go on by excerpting what he says in relatively full part. These are important words.

"The destruction brought by billable hours can be subtler in that it affects not merely the cost and efficiency of our work, but the quality of our profession as a whole. Firms now have only three ways to make more money — work longer hours, increase the number of lawyers or raise rates. Predictably, in a profit-maximizing system, firms have been doing all three. Instead of working 1,700 hours a year as lawyers did in the 1970s, today, new lawyers typically bill around 2,100 hours. Those additional hours come out of two places — evenings and weekends. That means less sleep, fewer outside interests, less commitment to loved ones and the crumbling of a decent life.

"Lawyers feel guilty about doing the very things that we should do to achieve access and justice — such as pro bono work for those in need or service to the community. Instead new lawyers come to view themselves as people who merely rent out their brains for a certain price per hour. And they and their work are degraded by the experience.

"The trend towards putting lots of lawyers on cases just compounds this. Young lawyers have fewer client contacts, less ownership of a case and fewer opportunities to actually solve a problem. As they advance, they aren’t asking the questions that will allow them to one day lead their firms and the profession: what experience am I getting, what sorts of colleagues are we developing, what is our culture and philosophy? Instead they think more and more about profit targets, hours targets and what their exit strategy is.

"An entire generation of lawyers has come to believe that their worth as a lawyer is measured not in how they solve problems but in how many hours they need to work. Not surprisingly, this has not made them better problem solvers.

"I realize that strong economic forces will continue to favor billable hours, and if a better and equally lucrative alternative existed, it would have been adopted by now. So this will not be an easy problem to solve. But we will eventually reach the outer limits of human endurance and the upper reaches of client tolerance, and if we do not begin addressing the issues now, it will be too late when we do. There are alternatives to billable hours, such as fixed fee arrangements with negotiated bonuses based on performance.

"The point though is not any one solution. The point is that as a profession, we need to start finding billing methods that will reduce distrust and damage to our client relationships, that will refocus young lawyers on being problem-solvers again, and that will remind us of — rather than distract us from — why we are lawyers in the first place."

Finally, there may be some good news.

WilmerHale's Bill Perlstein (and potentially some other firm leaders) have some innovative ideas about how to keep female, and male, associates on the partnership track through different approaches than the century-old Cravath system's 7-9 year up or out model. There do, indeed, have to be other ways.

This is a profound long-term challenge to our profession, and no one has all the answers.

What are your thoughts?

Update: Monday 28 April. A reader writes:

I enjoyed your piece very much because it hits home for me quite directly from both the female perspective as well as the billable hour one. In the last two weeks, I left my partner position at a large law firm in Chicago where I had been for more than 14 years to join some like-minded billable hour dissidents in the new litigation venture Valorem Law Group (www.valoremlaw.com). Having co-founded and co-chaired the women's initiative at my previous firm (incidentally, named one of the 100 Best Companies for Working Mothers in 2007) and co-founded a recent organization in Chicago called the "Coalition of Women's Initiatives in Law Firms," I am quite aware of the negative impact that the billable hour model has, not only on clients who want their work done quickly, efficiently and with good results, but also on attorneys who are creative, efficient and thrive on collaboration -- all things that the billable hour model hinders.

Without over simplifying it, as a working mother of 3 who was determined to work more productively in order to enjoy a balanced home life, I would venture to say that the billable hour model disproportionately (but not exclusively) impacts women, as any value measured by the commodity of already-stretched-too-thin time is going to favor those who have more of it -- and that is not typically women.

Our experience at Valorem and the widespread feedback we've received so far from clients and other attorneys tells us we are on the right track, both for clients and for the industry as a whole. As you would say, we are "tilting windmills." Stay tuned to see how the wind continues to blow.

With a big fat hat tip to Matthew Parsons and Neil Richards of Knowledge Thoughts, then, our first (2:21 running time, sponsor's logo at the very end):

And our second (5:29 run time, academic credit and "CC" license at the end):

Enjoy.

And reflect.

The American Lawyer today takes note of the last opening day of the season of baseball's New York Mets to take place at their home stadium since 1964, Shea Stadium.

It was simpler days when Shea opened, and days when a mere lawyer-cum-power broker could actually end up with his name on a stadium. (The new Mets stadium, now under construction a parking lot away, will be known as the denatured, mispelled, and potentially transitory "Citi Field," after the bank.)

I write to summarize the type of lawyer Bill Shea was, and also as a tardy way to memorialize, in brief form, my own short years at Shea & Gould as an associate in the 1980's.

The story of Shea and his stadium began when the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants both left for California after the 1957 season, and New York became bereft of a National League club. Shea thought that baseball was a sort of social glue holding together different classes across the city ("What am I going to talk to my doorman about now?!") and he resolved to do something about it.

But, as well-connected as Shea was, he couldn't persuade any National League franchise city to cede a team to New York, nor could he persuade the league to open a new expansion franchise for New York.

So he turned to Plan B.

With Branch Rickey as his ally (the former Dodgers executive famous, among other things, for breaking the color barrier by signing Jackie Robinson) Shea formed the "Continental League," immediately granting a franchise to New York and reaching out to Florida, Minnesota, and Texas, among other places, to seed new franchises. He was calling the National League's bluff, and the National League blinked.

So were born the New York Metropolitans, with their signature colors of Dodgers blue and Giants orange.

But that's not why I'm writing about Bill Shea.

He's a model of a law firm leader the mold for which may have been permanently broken.

I won't talk about his technical expertise, which certainly entitled him to the platform he ultimately enjoyed, but he was actually a gifted banking lawyer. Beside the point. His genius lay elsewhere. Simply put, he knew everyone. The stories are legion about his Rolodex, but I'll add only one small one of my own.

Early in my days at Shea & Gould, I was assigned a very short and limited task: Try to find an interpretation of a particular Hawaiian tax statute that would be more rather than less favorable to our client. The diligent but unskilled associate that I was, I came up with an array of inconclusive regulations, letters, and tangentially related cases, and went back to the partner somewhat disconsolate with the miserable fruits of my labors. His immediate response was, "Let's go see Bill!"

We walked into his office, described the dilemma very briefly, and without saying a single word to us, he yelled over the intercom to his assistant, "Get me Inouye!"

Probem solved; Inouye is the senior US Senator from Hawaii.

But a few last thoughts on Bill as leader of a law firm:

"When I was a fourth-year associate, [Shea] and Milton Gould lent me and my wife money to make a down payment on our first home," says [Richard] Spinogatti, who was in the U.S. Army Reserve at the time [and who's now a senior counsel at Proskauer Rose]. "It was an interest-free loan made out of their pockets—not from the firm—and they did that for a lot of people.

“Bill was a bear of a man with bright blue eyes, and while he could appear gruff and rough, he had an absolute heart of gold,' he says. 'He would always listen to anybody’s problems and deal with them as his own.'"

In retrospect, it came as no surprise to me--although I had left and was only a lowly associate when I did leave--that very shortly after Shea's ultimate retirement the firm imploded.

Is there still room for such law firm leaders?

Yes, of course; we are minting them every day, if we care to notice, and if we care to cultivate them and let them thrive with all their idiosyncrasies. Which of Shea's winning characteristics bear attending to? His office door was always open, to the high and the low alike. The Spinogatti story alone demonstrates it was not an empty gesture. And when he exercised his power on your behalf, it was his personal touch, not a favor bestowed from the firm's resources at no risk or expense to him. From a business perspective, he realized that combining his infinite Rolodex with Milton Gould's celebrated courtroom talents could be the basis for a powerful firm. And he proceeded to build a firm that was a great New York institution in its day.

It's a tragedy it couldn't survive his and Milton Gould's retirement. Is there a moral in that? Not having been privy to the inner circle, I hesitate to draw one with any degree of confidence. But to all appearances, the Harvard Business School case that has not been written about Shea & Gould, but could be, might be titled "Failure of Succession Planning". When the benevolent rulers must retire, who of their stature is in line to take their place?

I choose to focus on the institution they built while they were in charge. You could do worse than to aspire to what they achieved.

The Times (UK) asks today, "Slaughter & May v Clifford Chance:  Who is pursuing the best route?"

The article puts head-to-head two concepts of what makes for a great and powerful law firm:  World-leading profits per partner, on one hand, vs. a truly global footprint and powerful international capability, on the other.  At over £2-million/year in partner profits, Slaughters is up where the air is very thin indeed—indeed, if you believe The Lawyer's latest rankings of the Top 50 US firms, one and only one firm is in that same troposphere, the usual suspect, Wachtell. 

But if what you care about is multinational local law capability, Clifford Chance is your horse.  In fact, in the past ten years Slaughters closed offices in New York and Singapore, leaving outside London only Hong Kong and Brussels.  It serves clients abroad through the familiar network of "best friends," and its friends are not only that but are highly ranked firms each in their own right:

• Bredin Prat in France,
• Hengeler Mueller in Germany,
• Bonelli Erede Pappalardo in Italy, and
• Uria Menendez in Spain.

We'll get back to Slaughters vs. CC in a moment, but first let's juxtapose that network of friends with thoughts from this piece courtesy of The Lawyer about "European unions." Citing Eversheds, Pinsent Masons, and CMS Cameron McKenna, the article posits that "With networks, national firms have found they can leapfrog City rivals with their own European offices, only without the hassle and expense of launching on the continent." Sounds a bit too glib to me, but let's entertain the hypothesis for moment.

Because, you see, we actually have not two models but three: Slaughters, CC, and the Networks. (You object that Slaughters is actually a Network, albeit perhaps a granddaddy of them all? I demur. Slaughters is Slaughters with or without its network: Eversheds, Pinsents, and CMS are far less interesting without their networks--and none of them is Slaughters.)

Slaughters would and does argue that its ability to provide absolutely top-notch service (advising 29 of the FTSE 100, more than any other City firm) is its trump card, and that having local law capability elsewhere is irrelevant in terms of why clients initially come to it--or, if relevant, that the top-quality "best friends" serves that need. CC would argue that corporate clients expect a seamless service delivery experience across all offices of their chosen law firms, and that only its footprint realistically matches that of its global clients.

Here's the issue as described by those on the front lines:

"The one-stop shops have a very powerful weapon, [Tim] Clark [retiring as senior partner at Slaughters] suggests: their brand. “This helps them to appear to the outside world as having a uniformity of approach and quality that is the same as their London office. Because that’s not necessarily the case, it allows us to compete very effectively.”

"[Guy] Morton [joint senior partner of Freshfields] counters by arguing that “the disadvantages of relying on a non-integrated network will become more pressing as clients become more truly international and more used to going to a single firm for multijurisdictional work”. There will not be a sudden implosion of the Slaughter and May model, he suggests, but the Freshfields model will gradually gain competitive advantage."

Both of course ignore the Network model. The truth is that there is no unitary "Network model:" There's a spectrum. At one end is CMS, where the firms are tightly integrated on virtually every dimension short of sharing profits. At the other end is a Nabarro, an Addleshaws, or a Berwin Leighton Paisner where relations are diplomatic and friendly but not exclusive or necessarily oriented towards closer and closer integration down the road.

Even Eversheds noted that its network partners wouldn't always jump when clients called until Eversheds landed Tyco as a major client and got the troops' attention. And other affiliations are at even more developmental stages: Addleshaws recently added the ability to do joint billing, and the service was considered noteworthy enough to merit coverage in the article. Other astonishing developments? Co-branded websites and integrated marketing materials! What next? A common currency?

Seriously, the point of a network is nothing other than seamless client service. The goal is not to create an organizational superstructure worthy of study in a business school case, but simply to deliver impeccable legal advice to clients who need cross-border integrated service and are indifferent to the letterhead of the person they're dealing with at the moment--provided only the prerequisite baselines of quality, timeliness, and consistency. Ideally, the client should see no difference whatsoever between the responsiveness of a "network" office and the responsiveness of one of the UK firm's own domestic branch offices.

Are these sustainable equilibria?

At fear of inspiring emails from those begging to differ (actually, bring it on), I believe loose, permeable, and utterly flexible networks are not much stronger than the tissuepaper uniting them. It seems less than dating, much less going steady and much much less than living together or getting married (merging). Not be flip about it, but more akin to what today's young adults categorize as "friends with benefits." Eminently flexible, eminently exit-able.

With commitments should come consequences, and without consequences there seems no real commitment.

Are there, still, "benefits?" Surely so, to clients and to the firms involved on both sides. The "referring" or hub firms gain needed expertise on the ground without the requirement to invest over a period of years or decades with uncertain results. The "referred" or spoke firms gain business they wouldn't necessarily otherwise obtain, and the hope of more in future. That, after all, is why these networks are so common. If they were pure and simple examples of market failure, they would cease to exist.

But we're not about whether they can or do work; we're about whether they're optimal, and I cannot believe in the long run they are. There are too many countervailing incentives, too much room for co-opting competition, too many reasons (economic and cultural) for impromptu alliances to fade away and disintegrate. A temporary solution, and an understandable ad hoc response to global clients and non-global law firms, but a response for the ages? I doubt it.

But this brings us back to the Slaughters vs. CC debate.

Building either firm is an astonishing achievement. With Slaughters, the ££ speak for themselves. With CC, the shockingly powerful network on the ground speaks for itself.

My question is whether in the next 10 years we shall see emergence of a firm that combines both: World-beating profitability, which reflects superb quality of talent and corresponding high-end premium work entrusted by the world's top clients; and a global network second to none, with robust Anglo-Saxon and local law capability worldwide.

Now that would be a firm to be part of—or to envy.

That's the new McKinsey coinage intended to lend new intellectual luster and heft to the perennial management-theoretical challenge of how to manage multinational firms. No matter how familiar the business issues, now is probably an especially timely moment to revisit them, given the strenuous economic environment. In good times, suboptimal management can be overlooked; but at times like this there is no room for slack in the rigging.

Here, then, the familiar landscape:

• geographic or product area focus?
• heavily centralized or with greater local customization?
• capitalizing on cross-border synergies or maximizing local, country-specific practices?

The fundamental challenge is to capture the greatest value from local practices while also benefiting from the value of an international platform and brand.

This is not an a abstract exercise; it is deeply ingrained with, and commences from, where your firm actually produces value. If, for example, you're a capital markets-centric New York and London powerhouse, a centralized and more or less top-down approach may be ideal. To the extent you have other offices, they may be more branches of convenience than full service local outposts in their own right. Conversely, if your firm has a more widely diversified portfolio of local practices (say, energy in Moscow, IP in Milan, project finance in Dubai, startup financing in Eastern Europe, etc.) then headquarters needs to "get out of the way" of these country-specific profit centers.

So far, these elements of strategy may appear relatively self-evident, but the devil is typically in the execution. If the goal is maximizing cross-border value, here are three barriers on that front:

• Lack of awareness. Is anyone actually responsible for identifying cross-border opportunities? Or is it all ad hoc and hit or miss?
• Motivation. What value has management placed on collaboration? Is it an element in the determination of compensation? Are local fiefdoms jealous of sharing their clientele and/or expertise? Again, does the compensation calculation reward multi-office collaboration or implicitly penalize it through ossified origination and billing credits?
• Poor execution. This can stem from things as simple as language and cultural differences, but more fundamentally the threat to seamless execution is murky accountability and the absence of a champion promoting multi-office teamwork.

Consider some partial measures--short of centralized mandates--to facilitate more "natural" and instinctive collaboration. Such as?

• Sharing best practices, deal templates, and the like.
• Rotating and "seconding" people among offices.
• Creating a firm "university" (or utilizing one of the many many business schools eager to do it for you) to bring leaders together and engage them in creative problem-solving.
• Geographic--read: regional--clustering. There's probably a sweet spot between total centralization and pure local autonomy that can achieve several objectives:
  • integrate similar practices across countries
  • avoid duplication
  • manage the performance of the firm across several countries in a more coherent fashion, and
  • economize on travel expenses.

None of these suggestions and recommendations are earth-shattering, but cumulatively they serve as a virtuous reminder that global firms face a continuum of choice over how centralized or how locally autonomous they choose to make their management.

And especially in our industry, where local jurisdictional, substantive law, regulatory and licensing issues are so much more critical to what we do than (say) different packaging preferences might be to a consumer goods firm, it's important to try to strike the right balance between capitalizing on local law capability while maintaining the "one-firm firm" strength of a global platform able to seamlessly serve our equally global clients. A light hand on the reins.