Apologies for a dearth of columns this week, but I was at ILTA/2008 at the Gaylord Texan outside Dallas.  Two comments about the Gaylord, Dallas, and August.  First, the Gaylord comes as close as any place I've ever been to meriting the word "indescribable."  If you start by envisioning what is essentially a circular hotel built around an enormous, enclosed atrium roughly the size of a domed football stadium, you begin to get the idea.  Now furnish that atrium with lifesize replicas of part of The Alamo, fountains, streams, and brooks, model trains running hither and yon, facsimiles of Conestoga wagons, an oil derrick, and other totemic Texas artifacts, put it adjacent to the largest conference center in Texas (which is actually saying something, unlike perhaps "the largest conference center in Rhode Island"), and you begin to have a prayer of envisioning this place.  Don't you love America?

Comment #2:  Dallas in August is an extremely hostile environment if you're a runner, or, indeed, if you like to spend any part of your day outside hermetically sealed environments.

Be that as it may, on Wednesday I presented on "Web 2.0 & Law Firms," and on Thursday, with my friend John Alber, Strategic Technology Partner at Bryan Cave, on "Law Firm Economics 103."  (If you don't know John, he is perhaps the single most insightful and creative thinker in our industry about how to measure performance internally at law firms. He comes up with stuff you've never dreamed of, and passes it off as all in a day's work.)

Here are the presentations (click each to view):

This particular presentation concludes with Information R/evolution by Michael Wesch:

And just to add some interactivity to your visit, I was also videotaped by Thomson West who posted it on YouTube.

See you at ILTA next year! (But please, dear organizers, not Dallas.)

We have our first comprehensive report on how 2008 is shaping up financially, courtesy of The American Lawyer, and Dan DiPietro of Citi's Private Bank, and it paints a picture of what are soon going to be, if they aren't already, vastly diminished expectations.

Let's set the scene.

Since 2001, we've enjoyed overall consecutive year over year growth rates at almost double digit levels in practically every metric that counts. Here are the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) figures for the 2001 to 2007 time span:

• Revenue: 10.6%
  • YTD 2008: 4.8%
• Gross billable hour demand: 3.9%
  • YTD 2008: -0.3%
• PEP: 9.3%
  • YTD 2008: -9.1%
• Growth in the ranks of equity partners: 2.9%
  • YTD 2008: 1.7%
• Associate compensation (roughly 23% of total firm revenues): 10.1%
  • YTD 2008: 15.2%

Now all of these trends have turned negative:

• Revenue growth has reversed, with demand the weakest since 2001
• Since firms have continued to add lawyers, there's "profit margin compression"--lower revenues hit higher expenses

And, fascinatingly:

The slowdown is hitting the most profitable firms the hardest. In the first half of 2008, demand dropped off even more dramatically and expenses increased at a more rapid pace at the top firms, resulting in even greater margin compression and a steeper drop in productivity than experienced by their less profitable rivals. The practice areas that normally provide a lift in a downturn -- restructuring, bankruptcy and litigation -- have not helped cushion the drop-off in transactional work.

It's not just a failure of the classic countercyclical practice areas to kick in; there appears to be a structural component involved as well.

When firms are broken out by profitability, our data produced an interesting finding. The firms that soared in 2002 through 2007 were harder hit in the first half of 2008 than their less profitable peers. From our sample of 165 firms, we broke out 63 top-tier firms (defined as those with profits per equity partner above $650,000 in the year 2000). Over the past six years, this group has consistently produced higher growth in revenues and PPEP than other firms.

That changed dramatically in the first half of 2008. Growth in PPEP for 51 of the 63 top-tier firms that reported their results to us plummeted from an 11.7 percent increase in 2007 to an 11.8 percent drop in the first six months of 2008. In contrast, their less profitable rivals experienced a 5.3 percent drop in PPEP in the first half of 2008. After reaching a seven-year peak of 7.4 percent growth in 2007, demand at top-tier firms actually dropped 1.6 percent in the first half of 2008. Again, this decline compares unfavorably with the 1.1 percent rise in gross billable hours at the other firms in our sample.

Top-tier firms experienced even greater profit margin compression than their peers, with revenue growth of 4.3 percent and an increase in expenses of 10.9 percent. In contrast, the other firms we surveyed had revenue growth of 5.5 percent and a rise in expenses of 9.1 percent. Demand at top-tier firms declined in both the first and second quarters of 2008, in contrast to their less profitable competitors, for whom demand dipped in the first three months but increased in the second three months.

The posited explanation is that since firms with the highest profitability tend to concentrate on serving the financial services industry's demand for transactional work, they are suffering disproportionately from the freeze gripping that sector. This rings convincingly true to me. And the data support it: Hours per lawyer have dropped 8% at these top-tier firms compared to a decline of 2.9% elsewhere.

One last observation from the report and then some commentary.

What Citi defines as "international" firms, with between 10 and 25% of their lawyers abroad, "experienced greater profit margin compression than any other group of firms." By contrast, "global" firms, with more than 25% of their lawyers abroad, have experienced the least profit margin compression.

If you assume that firms just beginning, or in the early stages, of international expansion are focused on the UK and the EU, this makes some sense: Those geographies are experiencing a similar, though not as sharp, a slowdown as we here in the US. So their geographic diversity hasn't helped much. By contrast, if you think Citi's definition of "global" firm identifies firms farther down the globalization path, they're likely to have substantial presences in Asia and the MidEast--areas anything but suffering from the Western economies' downturn.

More importantly, this speaks to the power of a diversified portfolio of practices--both by specialty and by geography.

So: What's to be done?

Since you can't create a truly compelling international platform by yourself overnight, you have one aggressive and one passive option. The aggressive one is to carefully, thoughtfully, and thoroughly explore a potential merger with a firm that, together with yours, would provide that international platform.

Globalization is here to stay, and the notion of a powerhouse firm based primarily in one country--no matter how large the domestic economy--will increasingly become a mark of irrelevance.

The more passive, or perhaps I should say more cautious, response is simply to do what you can to cut costs.

There's just one problem with cutting costs: Your biggest costs are (a) people and (b) office space.

You can't cut corners on either one. And, as many firms learned to their lasting chagrin after the dot-com bust, if you cut associate ranks drastically to improve short-term results, you have no mid-level bench strength when the good times return. Neither your clients nor people in your recruiting pipeline--nor partners who have to turn down work or over-stress their colleagues--forget this soon.

Which brings me to the real point.

Firms that are "suffering" (down 10% in profits?--let's get a grip, people) are probably in that situation because they made bets--hopefully calculated--to concentrate on practice areas that were hot. That's all well and good, if they were consciously chosen bets placed with an understanding of the odds of their coming up snake-eyes.

Managing a sophisticated law firm is not remotely a quarter by quarter exercise, and it's also not a year by year one. It requires explicit, considered, hard thought through choices about what your firm is, what it's capable of, and what it can credibly and realistically aspire to given your client base, your recruiting pipeline, and a clear-eyed view of your partners' and associates' appetite for change.

And then it requires a consistent communications effort, forceful, undeviating, adapted to different audiences at different times but indistinguishable in thrust. You need to be shockingly clear about the vision, able to crisply articulate it, relentless in communicating, and prepared to reinforce it all with carrots and sticks.

Come to think of it, maybe it's easier just to cut costs.

One of the most famous management books in recent history is The Balanced Scorecard, published in 1996 by two Harvard Business School professors, Robert Kaplan and David Norton. If you've never heard of it, you should at the very least become familiar with its core precepts, which can be roughly summarized as recognizing that purely financial measures of performance are inadequate and that a multidimensional analysis is required to effectively evaluate your firm's organizational effectiveness.

There are basically four sections to the "balanced scorecard:" articulating your firm's strategy; communicating that strategy and linking it to relatively objective measures which clearly reflect your progress (or lack thereof) towards achieving the strategy; setting targets for individuals to inspire them to reach higher on those measures; and finally enhancing feedback and learning.

Now Kaplan and Norton are back with their fifth book as coauthors, The Execution Premium: Linking Strategy to Operations for Competitive Advantage. If you think this is a franchise they're milking, all I would say is give them a moment's credit for inventing the franchise--after which I agree with you utterly.

But in the land of business literature, where the average half-life of a concept can be measured in terms of one or at most two quarterly earnings releases, the "balanced scorecard" has legitimate legs, and so it's worth seeing what new they have to say.

As implied by the title, the new book takes leadership in crafting a credible, distinctive, and powerful strategic vision as almost a given (or at least as a prerequisite): "There are two key issues. First is leadership. Without strong visionary leadership, no strategy will be executed effectively." That's about all they have to say on the topic. The rest of the discussion focuses on how to actually imbue operations with the strategic vision or, in other words, how to get it done:

The normal course of events is for companies to focus on day-to-day operations and short-term problem solving. Management meetings focus on fighting fires and fixing problems. Often little time and few resources get committed to strategic issues.

We don't advocate abandoning an intense focus on operations and their improvement. But we do advocate planning strategy, not just describing it as important. The senior management team needs to have regular, probably monthly, meetings that focus only on strategy.

To emphasize the importance of marrying strategy to execution, they offer this quote perhaps apocryphally attributed to Sun Tzu: "Strategy without tactics is the long road to victory; tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat."

What's wrong with being strong on tactical execution? Obviously, nothing per se. In corporate America, tactics are often addressed through initiatives such as Total Quality Management, Six Sigma, and other "continuous improvement" and business process re-engineering efforts. All well and good. But they are typically pursued without regard to whether the processes that are being optimized are actually things the company should be doing. As the authors put it, "quality and process improvement programs are like teaching people how to fish. Strategy maps and scorecards teach people where to fish."

Here's a simplistic example from law firm land: A "zero-based budgeting" examination of your office space requirements--for partners, for associates, for staff, for the library, for conference rooms, etc.--might yield incremental improvements in how you allocate those expensive downtown Class AA building square feet. But they will not address the question of whether all the activities you perform in that premium space need to be performed there.

A stronger example might be in how you pursue development of your lawyers' client relations skills. If you are sufficiently progressive as to have a dedicated client relations or client focus program, good for you. But does it discriminate in favor of your best clients or is it scattershot across the board? Even more strategically, are the clients (and prospective clients) it focuses on informed by the types of work the firm aspires to get and the industries and practice areas you want to emphasize going forward? Not all dollars of revenue are created equal.

Don't assume a focus on strategy happens automatically.

Indeed, the authors recommend monthly meetings explicitly focused on strategy:

"[M]ost management meetings get consumed with discussions about short-term operational and tactical issues. It is important to meet to discuss and solve operational problems. But companies err when they devote all their time together for fire-fighting and coping with near-term issues. The formal strategy execution system schedules strategy review meetings at a different time from operational review meetings. In that way, each meeting has its own frequency, agenda, information system, and participation, as best meets the goals for that meeting."

Beyond monthly meetings, they recommend creation of what they call (they are business school professors, alas) an "Office of Strategy Management." Stop rolling your eyes and stay with me.

Think of the "OSM" as the managing partner's or executive committee's "chief of staff:" Not the person who sets the strategy, but the person who tries to ensure that (a) the right meetings are held (b) attended by the right people (c) with appropriate follow-up and follow-through.

Essentially, the OSM is responsible for making sure that nothing important falls between the stools, and that you have the right stools in the right places. Finally, they can reach out to less central but still important functions such as finance, recruiting, marketing, and IT, to make sure those departments' activities are closely aligned with the firm's espoused strategy.

Is your leadership team, then, delegating responsibility for day to day oversight of strategy execution? Not on your life:

"[E]executive leadership pervades every stage of the management system. Throughout The Execution Premium, we describe organizations that have successfully implemented their strategies. They operate in varied regions and industries ... Their strategies differ ... About the only common element all these diverse successful strategy implementers have in common is exceptional and visionary leadership. In every example, the unit's CEO led the case for change and understood the importance of communicating the vision and strategy to every employee. Without such strong leadership at the top, even the comprehensive management system we introduce in this book cannot deliver breakthrough performance.

"In fact, leadership is so important to the strategy management system that we make a rather bold claim that leadership is both necessary and sufficient for successful strategy execution. The necessary condition comes from our experience with the more than one hundred enterprises around the world who have become members of the Balanced Scorecard Hall of Fame. In every instance, the CEO of the organizational unit implementing the new strategy management system led the processes to develop the strategy and oversee its implementation. No organization reporting success with the strategy management system had an unengaged or passive leader."

At every stage, then, senior leadership is doing exactly what it's being paid to do: Leading.

You:

• set the ambitious agenda and "stretch" goals;
• explain and relentlessly communicate how each professional will have to adapt their behavior to pursue those goals;
• modify the firm's organizational units as need be to suit them to pursuing the goals;
• run the on-going strategy review meetings and determine what mid-course corrections are called for; and finally
• allow the strategy to be challenged as circumstances change, performance is evaluated, and professionals respond more and less favorably to the new mandates.

In many ways, the Holy Grail of leadership is to identify and articulate a compelling strategy tightly suited to the firm's capabilities and market opportunities, and then to assure that everyone starts rowing strongly in that direction.

The fact that it's relatively easy to state makes it no less daunting to achieve. How hard is it to state "I want to lose weight." "I want to stop smoking." "I want to get more exercise."

Or, "I want to align everyone in the firm with our carefully crafted and potent strategy."

Good luck. Seriously.

With the news today that both Clifford Chance and Eversheds are ramping up their outsourcing initiatives in India (covered in The Lawyer and in LegalWeek), it's timely to report on a panel on outsourcing that I attended last week at the ABA's annual convention here in New York.

But first, the Clifford Chance and Eversheds news: The firms are taking slightly different approaches, albeit with the same thrust, of cutting reliance on pricey London-based personnel for low-level legal work. CC is expanding its inhouse India capability (Delhi-based) by ramping up paralegal capacity to review documents in basic due diligence work, cloning documents, and "low-level drafting." Eversheds, by contrast, has contracted with a third-party provider "to outsource small commercial contracts that are too expensive to carry out in the UK or in-house." In future it may (read: will) expand to cover due diligence. It's apparently premature for Eversheds to announce projected cost savings, but CC says it's already saving £8-million annually.

So much for the background. Now to the outsourcing panel.

Fortunately, on the panel were Sally King, regional operations manager for the Americas at Clifford Chance, Jim Lantonio, who was executive director at Milbank when they outsourced their word-processing functions to Mumbai, and Ron Friedmann, a senior executive with Integreon, a major outsourcing firm.

Ron opened by presenting pictures of the Integreon facilities in India, emphasizing the very high level of security, including biometric scans for access to workrooms, bans on all potential digital or analog recording devices, encrypted data transfer protocols, and so forth.

Sally reported that CC has 100 employees in Delhi today at its facility, and anticipates having 300 by 2010, performing tasks such as accounting, accounts payable and receivable, low-level HR functions, and, in general, all "low touch" functions which don't need to be performed in the City of London or in midtown Manhattan.

Jim explained that a key consideration in Milbank's sending its wordprocessing to Mumbai was that "there's no career path in wordprocessing at a law firm." So going to a third-party firm that does wordprocessing as a core function provides the possibility of career growth. The Milbank wordprocessing staff--drawn from the New York job market--consisted, certainly on the overnight shift, of actors and actresses whose key career priority was not, to put it delicately, Milbank at midnight.

What was the key obstacle to the offshoring at Milbank? "Not technology, and not confidentiality or security--those we could readily take care of; it was the politics of sending jobs abroad." But, reported Jim, what changed the nature of the conversation about "sending jobs abroad" was the recognition that capable people in the New York metropolitan area did not want 24/7 wordprocessing jobs. The critical battle of convincing lawyers, used to looking over secretaries' shoulders as they typed, that the work could be done as well in Mumbai, remained.

So Milbank embarked on a year-long double-blind experiment. When a lawyer submitted a job to wordprocessing, it would go either to Mumbai or to New York, at random. Lawyers were then asked to grade the resulting work product, without knowing where it came from. At the end of a year, satisfaction rates were 97-99% for Mumbai-sourced work and 75-78% for New York-sourced work. Case closed.

The New York Times reports that Wall Street investment banks are taking the next step beyond the back office:

After outsourcing much of their back-office work to India, banks are now exporting data-intensive jobs from higher up the food chain to cities that cost less than New York, London and Hong Kong, either at their own offices or to third parties.

Bank executives call this shift “knowledge process outsourcing,” “off-shoring” or “high-value outsourcing.” It is affecting just about everyone, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Citibank — to name a few.

Here are the numbers of employees in India for some of these firms:

• Morgan Stanley:  500 "doing research and statistical analysis"
• Goldman Sachs:  3,000 in Bangalore alone, of whom 100 are investment researchers
• JPMorgan:  325 analysts in Mumbai
• Citigroup:  22,000, of whom "several hundred" are in investment research
• Deutsche Bank:  6,000, in unspecified roles
• Credit Suisse:  6,500 in lower-cost jurisdictions including India, Poland, and Singapore

And inevitably the jobs now being performed outside New York, London, and Hong Kong are slowly moving up the food chain.  One can foresee a day when it makes little sense to talk of investment banks being headquartered anywhere in particular, a day when they will have become global in the most fundamental sense.  At that point, the very notion of "outsourcing" becomes something of a metaphysical concept.

Still doubt the potential power of outsourcing? Then ask yourself what functions your firm already "outsources," even if it's to people down the block. Copying? Catering? Mailing? Website hosting? Tax preparation? Think of it in these terms or not, you're already outsourcing; the only question is where your core competencies as a law firm end and the core competencies of other firms (wordprocessing?) begin.

I asked the panel whether the ability to offshore basic document review was changing the career paths of junior associates, who presumably did that work heretofore. "Oh, yes, it has already changed things greatly," reported Sally. Jim agreed that had been his experience at Milbank. "The days of seeing a bunch of associates in a war room with boxes of documents to review are long gone."

Marry that observation to the increasing ubiquity of this trend—Clifford Chance and Eversheds are not exactly arrivistes—and you have a chance to take a "zero-based budgeting" look at what your firm does and what it engages with others to do.  Your clients are already there.

• Midlevel associates, despite their pay jump since 2006, aren't satisfied with with their compensation;
• New York City salary levels have penetrated every major market across the country;
• The annual midlevel associate survey "shows associates eyeing the door;" and
• Howrey is continuing its revolutionary efforts to end associate lockstep.

I suggest you get what could be the beginning of cataclysmic cracks in the associate compensation/promotion/professional development model.

Shall we start with the easy stuff?

According to The Paycheck Report,

"Finally, everyone's being paid like a New York lawyer. Thanks to an informal wage freeze in the country's largest market, midlevels in other major cities caught up to the salaries of their New York counterparts this year, although they still lag behind in bonuses.[...]

"Even though New York salaries were flat, the data shows healthy pay increases elsewhere, as non-New York medians caught up with those in New York--$185,000 for third-years, $210,000 for fourth-years, and $230,000 for fifth-years. For midlevels outside of New York, those are one-year increases of 9 percent, 11 percent, and 10 percent, respectively. Nationally, median bonuses increased 17 percent for third-years, 21 percent for fourth-years, and 14 percent for fifth-years."

Next, we have the report from the front lines that even associates in firms receiving "going rate" salaries aren't satisfied if they don't receive going rate bonuses. You may be asking yourself whether the notion of a "going rate bonus" isn't an oxymoron, and I would be the first to agree with you.

At risk of revealing how far back my memory goes, and worse, at risk of appearing a curmudgeon, I do recall the days when bonuses were individually determined based on--quelle horreur--individual performance. But that was then and this is now. This says it all: "'Compensation is too low for the New York office' notes one Blank Rome associate. 'The bonus is not a market bonus, even if the salary is a market salary,' says another." As they say hereabouts: "Deal!" (Not as in, "you're on," but as in, "deal with it.")

The issue is not one of pay for performance, but one of comparative envy. And, to a large extent, of shocking law student ignorance about the differences between firms in training, culture, professional development, opportunities for partnership, strength of the alumni network, value of the firm's "pedigree" for future options, chances to spend some time in an overseas office, and so many other things that are critically important to one's future career.

So it comes down to money: "Students can’t easily differentiate between prospective employers, so they rely too much on pay as an indicator of prestige. Competitive and clueless, students are "the most uneducated consumers of law firm life and what it really means to practice," says a Simpson Thacher & Bartlett midlevel."

But associates may actually be the most brutally honest realists about what's going on. If their careers in BigLaw are destined to be "nasty, brutish, and short," they may be being perfectly rational. We all know that the odds of equity partnership are asymptotically approaching zero:

“We’re like pro athletes,” says a Jenner & Block midlevel. “Only a few will make equity partner, and [most] will have a limited amount of time at a big firm.” In that scenario, the growing paycheck becomes a substitute for an enduring career with a single firm."

In other words, you can buy allegiance--temporarily, and I hate to call it loyalty--by paying salaries that are arbitrarily and capriciously set by a "going rate" market that changes in unpredictable and unforeseeable epileptic seizures, but don't kid your associates that they're anything other than hired brain meat, the vast majority of whom will burn out from career-ending morale injuries. This is the problem:

"[T]he message from management was, 'We're just doing [the raise] because the market is doing it,'" recalls another Jenner [& Block] associate. "They're not raising because they value us. We're just the collective beneficiary because the firm needs to keep up in the market. It’s a back-handed compliment."

OK, I put it harshly, but is this any way to sustain and grow a superb, world-class professional services firm?

And what ever happened to the old dream of making partner after serving your years at Parris Island boot camp?

Maybe that doesn't hold the delayed-gratification appeal it used to, either. Start with the twin facts that: (a) partnership is not the tenured position it used to be, with de-equitizations rampant; and (b) partners work only marginally lower hours than associates, and have more non-billable hour responsibilities, so, in the famous joke, the achievement is seen as "a pie-eating contest where the reward is more pie."

This sums up the change in the mindset:

When Arnold & Porter's director of professional development, Caren Ulrich Stacy, started working in law firm recruiting in the mid-'90s, she says there was one question that she could count on hearing from every incoming associate, be it a new law school recruit or a potential lateral hire: How long does it take to make partner here? But today, Ulrich Stacy says, it goes largely unasked. "I've maybe had that question once in the past five years," she says.

It seems not to be a mask for insecurity. Associates still report (70+%) that they're "on partnership track," and even in today's straitened economy fewer than a quarter say their hours are lower, while fully a third say their hours have increased.

So if it's not insecurity, it's what?

Lack of desire: They may not want partnership.

For one thing, they see some junior partners working even more ferocious hours than their own. "There have been times when I have been watching a movie late at night that I've gotten an e-mail from a partner," says a Latham and Watkins third-year ... Adds a midlevel [at another firm]l: "When you see how many hours [junior partners] put in, you realize there really is no end to it."

Yet isn't there more to life as an associate, and as a partner, than grinding out the hours? The happy news is yes. And there may be hope that those firms willing to work on what that "more" is may be able to put together career paths that make financial, emotional, and professional sense for associates and financial and client-service sense for the firms.

Here are some clues:

"The professional development programs are all well and good," says one Arnold & Porter midlevel. "But in terms of learning the craft, you can't beat learning through a real-life experience and working on client matters."

And this:

"I wanted a place that would treat me like an adult, as opposed to a place that would hold my hand for three or four years before letting me do anything of substance," says one Gibson Dunn midlevel.

And this:

Howrey chief professional development officer Heather Bock adds that the pitch to this generation of associates has to include more than just a prospect of partnership. The question Bock asks herself: "What is it that we can offer these high achievers that will appeal to them?" One of Howrey's answers is to offer a two-to-three-day intensive academy each year of an associate's career. (The firm ranks in the top third of the survey overall, and in the top 10 in terms of training.) "We try to make it a very high-impact experience," Bock says. "It's very rare for them to come and listen to hours of PowerPoint presentations."

Arnold & Porter even employs two career counselors--former lawyers both--who help associates navigate internally within the firm or even help them plot an exit strategy; and it's all confidential. What do these efforts have in common?

• Treating associates as autonomous adults, not fungible factors of production.
• Giving them the rope to hang themselves, if hang themselves they will.
• Taking "professional development" seriously. It's not about videotapes and PowerPoints.

Take this thought experiment a step further, and broaden it out from one firm to BigLaw in general.

What do associates want?

Essentially, they want two things, in varying mixtures: Money and training.

We're actually very strong, and extraordinarily undifferentiated, at the first, and wildly variable on the second, from firm to firm, department to department, and even partner to partner.

Here's the thought: What if firms chose to position themselves along a two-dimensionally differentiated spectrum from exceptional pay and minimal training to exceptional training and below-market pay?

Wouldn't associates be able to make informed choices about where they wanted to begin their careers, based on their own needs, goals, and aspirations?

Now imagine adding other dimensions to these two simplistic ones:

• Higher or lower partner:associate leverage.
• More or less pro bono work.
• Clarity (this is a challenge to communicate to law students) about whether your firm is focused on corporate, finance, and transactional work, or on litigation and dispute resolution.
• Clarity (again, a challenge) over whether your firm is regional, national, or truly international, and the opportunities (or lack thereof) for, say, spending three years in Hong Kong or moving to the EU for an extended tour.

Associates are complaining that high salaries don't equate to career satisfaction. Is this any surprise? Recall the "back-handed compliment" remark?

Imagine differentiating your firm on dimensions that truly matter, and which you can communicate as:

• credible;
• distinctive to your firm; and
• beneficial to potential associates.

And start thinking about what those dimensions might be pretty soon. Because when the next jump in first-year salaries comes--and it will be to $200,000, I predict--you may want to have other, truly meaningful, differentiators in mind. Other than going to $210,000, that is.

This is about the Cadwalader layoffs.

But I won't be piling on. I really won't.

Instead, I'd rather examine how the firm got to this unhappy pass and what managerial lessons it might hold in store for us. To understand what brought it to cutting fully 20% of its lawyer headcount vs. late 2007, we have to begin, not at the beginning, but at what the firm has just done. Here are the highlights key decisions:

In a statement Wednesday the firm said: "From 2003-2007, when [commercial mortgage-backed securities] issuance tripled, the firm grew rapidly to meet client needs. With CMBS issuance now at a small fraction of previous levels, we are making these personnel adjustments in response to this change in demand. In September 2008, the firm will have 580 lawyers, the same number we were in January 2006."

At the end of 2007, the firm had around 720 lawyers.

Adding to Cadwalader's woes are that Bear Stearns (RIP) and Lehman Brothers, now under siege, were key clients. One unnamed "chairman of another leading New York firm" said that he was not only "stunned" by the scale of Cadwalader's layoffs but added that this economic downturn feels "fundamentally" different than the post-9/11 and post-dot-com falloffs.

"Those were lulls in activity," he said. "This is a fundamental change. A whole segment of capital markets has disappeared and we're not sure when it will come back, in what form or if it will ever come back."

The real challenge to Cadwalader may yet lie ahead. Reportedly, all of the 96 lawyers let go this week (and the 35 let go earlier in the year) were associates or "of counsel." The question this immediately poses is: And not a single partner? Not one? It's possible, of course, that some partners have been "spoken to," and since Cadwalader is not responding to requests for comment, we don't really know.

Yet I promised this would not be about this week and more about how a firm could get into this fix. For that we have to go back to a strikingly revealing interview a year and a half ago profiling Bob Link, then Chairman. The first insight into Link (the article starts in the context of "bowling night out" at Cadwalader) is "'Don't let him fool you,' someone says as Link, 52, takes down another frame. 'He's the most competitive person you'll ever meet.'" Profits per partner were on a tear, at more than $2.5-million in 2005 and $2.9-million 2006. Link had set out to make the firm almost obsessive about profitability. This from the February 2007 profile:

The oldest law firm in America and once one of the most genteel, Cadwalader under Link went through a wrenching and controversial 1990s turnaround during which it transformed itself into perhaps the nation's most aggressively profit-focused law firm. Today's Cadwalader, at which big producers are lavishly rewarded and underperformers are shown the door, presents a stark alternative to the more conservative ways of New York's traditional top-tier firms.

"They are definitely the firm to watch," said the managing partner of one leading New York firm recently overtaken by Cadwalader in the profit charts. "Even though they recognize the business realities, most law firms still hold on to certain ways of doing things. Cadwalader is run like a corporation."

But whether a law firm should be run that way is a question Cadwalader is far from definitively answering. The departure last week of antitrust chief Steven Sunshine, lured to the firm just two years before from Shearman & Sterling and now heading to Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom, underscores persistent criticisms that the firm, while able to attract star laterals with high pay, is unable to build sustainable practices around them.

And Cadwalader's approach has won it a reputation for ruthlessness that suits some but turns off others.

"It's exactly the shark tank that everybody says it is," said former partner Robert Vitale, "If you're a shark, it's great."

Now, of course, Link is no longer Chairman, but the seeds of this week's news were well and firmly planted at least a few years ago. In February 2007, he readily proclaimed the firm's success in concentrating on structured finance:

"Are we going to have difficulty sustaining this?" he asked. "No, short of some cataclysmic event that hits everyone else too."

This puts me in mind of nothing so much as the infamous quote by Chuck Prince, late of Citibank:

"When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,” (he said in an interview with the FT in July 2007).

Unfortunately, Chuck Prince didn't foresee just how "complicated" things could be. Including forfeiting his job in short order. (Link, as noted, is no longer head of Cadwalader, either.)

Other elements of Cadwalader's pursuit of profits included:

• Very high leverage. Roughly the same size as Davis Polk in total lawyer headcount, Cadwalader had only half as many partners. Link's observation on this: "Why would I have any more partners than I need?"
• The abrupt closing of the firm's 15-lawyer Palm Beach office led to a lawsuit by a former partner (who was awarded $2.4-million) and led to these remarks by the judge overseeing the case: "Such activity cannot be said to be honorable," Palm Beach County Circuit Judge Jack Cook wrote in his 1996 decision. "While life in the marketplace may well be made up of fear, greed and money ... life in a partnership is not so composed."
• Partners with less than $5-million in business were "eased out."

But the question of deepest interest is whether Cadwalader had embarked on a new business model that we all should attend to, and which was unfortunately waylaid by the vagaries of the financial services industry's cyclicality, or whether the model was fundamentally flawed. Eighteen months ago the former partner, Vitale, posed the question thus:

But the difference between Cadwalader and other firms he has been with is still striking to Vitale. Though he said there was no question that Cadwalader had achieved tremendous financial success, he said the firm still seemed to be trying out a "new model."

"It'll be interesting to see whether they've really built something that lasts," he said, "or if it's Finley Kumble in richer clothing."

Getting closer to the point, Link staunchly defended the firm's concentrating its practice on asset-backed and structured finance, and Vitale underscored the difficulty the firm had in accommodating to the investments required to build practices that would diversify its exposure to the markets.

First, Link:

The engine of the firm is its asset-backed structured finance practice. Link made his name in the area and still serves as the firm's practice leader. It is a specialized area ...

It is not generally regarded as a premium practice area like M&A or high-yield bond offerings, and some have questioned how Cadwalader could have achieved such impressive results from that foundation. For the most part, the other major firms in the area are not Sullivan & Cromwell or Simpson Thacher but non-New York firms like Sidley Austin or Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe.

The head of another New York law firm described securitization as a high-volume "commodity" practice, an area top firms avoided because of their inability to command premium rates in it.

"Somehow they've managed to make a success of it," he said of Cadwalader.

[...]

According to Link, the firm only wants to be in those areas where it can achieve a similar level of profitability, primarily those revolving around financial institutions. This discipline also explains why the firm has avoided most overseas expansion apart from London and a small office in China. In the United States, Cadwalader also only has offices in Washington, D.C., and banking center Charlotte, N.C., aside from New York.

"All other offices are dilutive," said Link.

And, Vitale:

Cadwalader's tight focus can clash with its attempts to expand into new practice areas. Vitale said it was frustrating trying to push the firm in a direction that required investment but guaranteed no immediate return. The firm did not yield.

"The firm decided that what it needed to do to expand its project finance practice, it wasn't willing to do," said Vitale.

In his case, he said, what the firm needed to do was swallow the pill and open some overseas offices, particularly in Latin America. The firm's unwillingness to do so meant its project finance group had a hard time competing for business with more global firms. Cadwalader could be a lonely place for those outside the humming core practices, he recalled.

And there you have the stark contrast: Link stands for reinvesting and doubling down in highly profitable areas--given the extant market conditions--while Vitale stands for the school of thought that investing in different practice areas could yield dividends down the road.

Today the choice facing Cadwalader is far more stark than the quasi-intellectual debate between Link and Vitale 18 months ago would have you imagine.

But consider this ineluctable responsibility of management: The task of management is to choose. The task of management is to decide. And the task of management is to do so with an eye towards likely future scenarios. Expecting a bubble to continue growing linearly to the sky is a mug's game. "Everyone thought it would grow to the sky," you retort? Goldman Sachs didn't; the vast majority of the AmLaw 200 didn't, and (we learn through recently released emails), even S&P, one of the great enablers of the bubble through their promiscuous granting of investment-grade ratings to toxic CDO's, knew it was a mug's game: "We can't rate this thing, it's a joke." "Don't you know we rate everything? We'd rate this thing if it were put together by cows."

Is it possible Cadwalader's management was thoroughly in the dark about the nature of the structured finance bubble? Were they in touch with their clients? Did they read the WSJ? Did they think strategically beyond what it would take to create a strong and sustainable law firm for the future, other than showing up for work every morning and answering the phone?

In a way, you can compare the Link/Vitale schools of thought to the grasshopper/ant fable that you recall: The ant spent the six months of summer storing up provisions for the winter while the grasshopper lived off the seemingly endless fat of the land. And we know what happens when autumn arrives.

This brings us to Cadwalader today. While it's scurrying to develop new practices, such as private equity, one has to wonder if its cultural DNA is capable of the long-term investments needed.

In the last year, the firm has established a private equity practice led by former Latham & Watkins star R. Ronald Hopkinson, as well as an intellectual property litigation practice comprising several former Morgan & Finnegan partners. The firm also substantially boosted its bankruptcy practice with the recruitment of four partners from Weil, Gotshal & Manges.

But it is unusual for new practices and partners to immediately boost a firm's bottom line, and some question whether Cadwalader acted wisely in investing heavily in private equity, another practice severely impacted by the tightened credit environment.

"You can't just buy some PE guys and present yourself as an alternative to Simpson Thacher to [Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co.]," said the [unnamed] firm chairman.

The question, of course, is whether the firm's reputation in the recruiting market will suffer long-term damage from laying off 20% of its lawyers (albeit, as noted, no partners). But the other question is whether those partners reflecting the figurative grasshopper mentality are willing to stick around through what could be, relatively speaking, winter.