May 16, 2009
Adam Smith's Home Town
If you've never been to Edinburgh, I highly commend it to you. And that's not just because of the Adam Smith connections, although that's what I'll very briefly mention here.
We're staying about 200 yards down the Royal Mile from Adam Smith's new statue, unveiled 4 July 2008, and about 400 yards up from his gravesite in the Canondale Kirk yard. The statue is bronze, 10' tall, and prominently situated in front of St. Giles church, Behind him is a plough, said to symbolize the impact of his thinking on the eclipse of agrarian economies, and to his right is a beehive, symbolizing, of course, the invisible hand of unguided individual effort creating without a centralized authority something greater than the sum of the individuals alone.
March 23, 2009
What I'm Reading
From time to time, people ask me what I'm reading when trying to figure out what is going on in the economy these days. A glib response might be, "anything I can get my hands on," but the question deserves a more thoughtful response, so herewith a book review and a few pointers to online sites that are more helpful than most.
The online sites, first as they're easy to handle in a condensed fashion:
- David Warsh's Economic Principals is perhaps the single most studious, well-written, thoughtful, and occasionally (but not doctrinally) contrarian site I know of. David publishes on a faithful, if quaint, once-a-week schedule, just like the print journalist he was, with provocative pieces such as "More than two aspirin," and "What comes after a golden age?."
- Truth on the Market bills itself as 'academic commentary on law, business, economics, and more," and it's surely worth checking out for that promise alone. While uneven at times, at its best it can be great fun.
- Matrix (on interpreting the real estate economy, with a focus on New York City) is a remarkably wide-ranging and thoughtful site covering the industry that's arguably at the root of all our
evilwoes, written by Jonathan Miller, who is the gold standard of appraisers in the New York City market. - Academic Earth bills itself as "thousands of video lectures from the world's top scholars." And it is. Origins of the Financial Mess (Alan Blinder, Princeton) is a good place to start.
- Marginal Revolution talks about a wide variety of topics in an often irreverent tone. A current post about the AIG bonus PR nightmare consists in its entirety of:
Outrage, outrage, blah, blah, blah, etc. Often I feel that some topics are too obvious to blog.
The real lesson is that this is another reason not to nationalize banks. It means politicizing every decision which ends up in the newspaper.
Here is a good post on why the bonuses should be paid.
Outrage, outrage, blah, blah, blah, etc.
But forthwith to the book review.
Animal Spirits, by George Akerloff (Nobel Prize Winner in Economics) and Robert Shiller, father of the famous Case-Shiller real estate index, was reviewed in the Financial Times:
[The authors] argue that the key is to recover Keynes's insight about 'animal spirits'--the attitudes and ideas that guide economic action. The orthodoxy needs to be rebuilt, and bringing these psychological factors into the core of economics is the way to do it. . . . The connections between their thinking on the limits to conventional economics and the issues thrown up by the breakdown are plain, even if they were unable to make every link explicit. Even more than Akerlof and Shiller could have hoped, therefore, it is a fine book at exactly the right time. . . . Animal Spirits carries its ambition lightly--but is ambitious nonetheless. Economists will see it as a kind of manifesto.
What are "animal spirits," again? The most concise explanation was actually provided by a reviewer on Amazon:
In his epoch-making General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936), John Maynard Keynes noted that concerning investment decisions, "most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits--a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities." Because of this propensity of investors to base decisions on variables other than "market fundamentals," the aggregate investment function of an economy will tend to be highly variable and erratic. Indeed, even today, it is virtually impossible to predict aggregate investment successfully, although the other sources of aggregate demand and supply are relatively well understood.
The book explores, in its Part I, five different dimensions of animal spirits and how they affect the economy:
- Confidence
- Corruption
- The "money illusion" (basically, people's propensity to ignore modest levels of inflation and deflation and to believe in a constant value of money)
- "Stories" which can mislead (for example, "the Internet will revolutionize everything..."); and
- Lack of perceived fairness (for example, AIG bonuses).
Part II, in turn, looks at some consequences of animal spirits' role in economic decision-making, and how they can help explain the answers to such questions as:
- Why do economies suffer depressions?
- What's to be done about the current financial crisis? (Caveat: Events are moving so quickly on this front that the authors' discussion is already looking quite dated.)
- Why can some people not find a job?
- Why is saving for the future so arbitrary?
- Why are financial prices and corporate investments so volatile?
The most valuable aspect of the book is that the authors show how human decisionmaking—as it's really performed, animal spirits and all—violates the classic notion of purely rational homo economicus. Consider this thought experiment they offer:
| Economic | Non-economic | |
| Rational | Rational, economic decisions |
Rational, non-economic decisions |
| Non-rational | Non-rational, economic decisions |
Non-rational, non-economic decisions |
Of course, neoclassical economic theory essentially addresses only the top left cell, whereas animal spirits help inform our understanding of the other three cells. Actually, I would argue that we can ignore the entire right hand column for present purposes, since it's by hypothesis in the realm of the "non-economic," but even if you wipe that from the attention of your cortex, the bottom left quadrant is clearly where a lot of the fascinating debate today around "fairness" (AIG bonuses again), "moral hazard," "fragility," "systemic risk," and so forth revolves.
Indeed, our again-helpful Amazon reviewer, who has simulated the behavior of individuals in markets, reports:
There is nothing in economic theory that says that rational individuals interacting on markets will produce stable, efficient outcomes. The Walrasian general equilibrium model says that if there are no market externalities, there are market-clearing equilibria that are Pareto-efficient, but this model has absolutely NO attractive dynamical properties. When I subjected this model to an agent based simulation (Herbert Gintis, "The Dynamics of General Equilibrium", Economic Journal 117 2007:1289-1309), I found that there is a robust tendency towards market clearing equilibrium, but this is always offset by highly volatile stochastic movements in prices, wages, capital demand, and other macroeconomic variables. This stochasticity is due to the fact that the macroeconomy is a complex, nonlinear, dynamical system, not because of "animal spirits."
Jargon patrol: A "Walrasian equilibrium" essentially means a competitive environment and not one populated by players with market power. "Externalities" are costs imposed upon, or benefits enjoyed by, actors not participating in the market in question. "Pareto-efficient" means that there is no possible change which would leave every player no worse off and at least one player better off.
The fascinating point here is that a core result is "always" "highly volatile stochastic [random] movements in [key] macroeconomic variables."
And isn't that just what we've seen in the subprime meltdown and its aftermath?
The really stunning fact about the current macroeconomy is that disequilibrium in the home mortgage market could so seriously compromise the American financial system. Even those who foresaw the housing crisis did not predict so massive and credit collapse, leading to levels of government intervention that would have been inconceivable in the past.
Animal Spirits is without doubt an intriguing, thoughtful, and timely book (and a quick read as well at 264 pages including notes and index), but I fear that its very focus on the quirkiness of human decision-making might serve as a pleasant distraction from the core and unavoidable truth that under- or improperly regulated markets cannot be counted upon to produce economically or socially desirable results.
Given the general level of surprise and intellectual shock that have accompanied this global meltdown,, it has become increasingly common to hear calls for a "new capitalism" or for some inchoate reworking of the received canon of wisdom in economics to help us navigate these seemingly unprecedented times.
If you're tempted, as I admit I occasionally have been, to pursue this path, I commend to you Amartya Sen's Capitalism Beyond the Crisis in the March 26,2009 issue of The New York Review of Books. Sen was the 1998 Nobelist in economics for his contributions to "welfare economics," ("Welfare economics," roughly speaking, is the branch that concerns allocative efficiency within a society, income distribution, and—you guessed it—achieving Pareto-optimal results.)
Sen's article is, by and large, an effective effort to debunk the mythologies that have been attributed, for motives base and innocent alike, to the Big Thinkers in economics including Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes. Perhaps we should not be surprised that the imprimatur of these legendary names would be appropriated for ideological or expedient means, but it's worth going back to what they actually said, as Sen does, to realize that we may have the blueprint for recovery in front of us if only we choose to see it.
Here is Sen on the "public/private mix" that undergirds all of today's First World economics. Forgive the somewhat lengthy excerpts, but Sen's argument is subtle and his prose pleasant:
What are the special characteristics that make a system indubitably capitalist--old or new? If the present capitalist economic system is to be reformed, what would make the end result a new capitalism, rather than something else? It seems to be generally assumed that relying on markets for economic transactions is a necessary condition for an economy to be identified as capitalist. In a similar way, dependence on the profit motive and on individual rewards based on private ownership are seen as archetypal features of capitalism. However, if these are necessary requirements, are the economic systems we currently have, for example, in Europe and America, genuinely capitalist?
All affluent countries in the world--those in Europe, as well as the US, Canada, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, and others--have, for quite some time now, depended partly on transactions and other payments that occur largely outside markets. These include unemployment benefits, public pensions, other features of social security, and the provision of education, health care, and a variety of other services distributed through nonmarket arrangements. The economic entitlements connected with such services are not based on private ownership and property rights.
[...]
[T]he pioneering works of Adam Smith in the eighteenth century showed the usefulness and dynamism of the market economy, and why--and particularly how--that dynamism worked. Smith's investigation provided an illuminating diagnosis of the workings of the market just when that dynamism was powerfully emerging. The contribution that The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776, made to the understanding of what came to be called capitalism was monumental. Smith showed how the freeing of trade can very often be extremely helpful in generating economic prosperity through specialization in production and division of labor and in making good use of economies of large scale.
Those lessons remain deeply relevant even today (it is interesting that the impressive and highly sophisticated analytical work on international trade for which Paul Krugman received the latest Nobel award in economics was closely linked to Smith's far-reaching insights of more than 230 years ago).
[...]
Even though people seek trade because of self-interest (nothing more than self-interest is needed, as Smith famously put it, in explaining why bakers, brewers, butchers, and consumers seek trade), nevertheless an economy can operate effectively only on the basis of trust among different parties. When business activities, including those of banks and other financial institutions, generate the confidence that they can and will do the things they pledge, then relations among lenders and borrowers can go smoothly in a mutually supportive way. As Adam Smith wrote:
When the people of any particular country have such confidence in the fortune, probity, and prudence of a particular banker, as to believe that he is always ready to pay upon demand such of his promissory notes as are likely to be at any time presented to him; those notes come to have the same currency as gold and silver money, from the confidence that such money can at any time be had for them.[1]
Smith explained why sometimes this did not happen, and he would not have found anything particularly puzzling, I would suggest, in the difficulties faced today by businesses and banks thanks to the widespread fear and mistrust that is keeping credit markets frozen and preventing a coordinated expansion of credit.
It is also worth mentioning in this context, especially since the "welfare state" emerged long after Smith's own time, that in his various writings, his overwhelming concern--and worry--about the fate of the poor and the disadvantaged are strikingly prominent. The most immediate failure of the market mechanism lies in the things that the market leaves undone.
And here, if you will, is the punch line:
Smith called the promoters of excessive risk in search of profits "prodigals and projectors"--which is quite a good description of issuers of subprime mortgages over the past few years. Discussing laws against usury, for example, Smith wanted state regulation to protect citizens from the "prodigals and projectors" who promoted unsound loans:
A great part of the capital of the country would thus be kept out of the hands which were most likely to make a profitable and advantageous use of it, and thrown into those which were most likely to waste and destroy it.[4]
The implicit faith in the ability of the market economy to correct itself, which is largely responsible for the removal of established regulations in the United States, tended to ignore the activities of prodigals and projectors in a way that would have shocked Adam Smith.
The present economic crisis is partly generated by a huge overestimation of the wisdom of market processes, and the crisis is now being exacerbated by anxiety and lack of trust in the financial market and in businesses in general.
Sen also writes that unappreciated in the current crisis is the relevance of Arthur Cecil Pigou (a contemporary of Keynes, also at Cambridge and also in fact at King's College). Whereas Keynes viewed the economy primarily through a mechanistic and hydraulic lens (the value of the famous "multiplier" being a primary example), Pigou put his focus on psychology, where Sen (and yours truly) believe it belongs. At the root of economic fluctuations, Pigou wrote, were "psychological causes," namely "variations in the tone of mind of persons whose action controls industry, emerging in errors of undue optimism or undue pessimism in their business forecasts.[5]" Sen goes as far as to say that "the real crisis...has become many times magnified by a psychological collapse," and he scarcely overstates the case.
Perhaps we should conclude with the culminating irony of this short tour of the landscape of Fabled Economists: It is that while Smith and Pigou are traditionally seen as "conservative," and Keynes as something of a rebel, the first pair were far more outspoken, insightful, and insistent upon the importance of non-market institutions and non-profit values.
What else am I reading? Alpha by author:
- Geoff Colvin's Talent
is Overrated: What Really Separates World-Class Performers
from Everybody Else. This book, based soundly in empirical
research, delivers the hard message that true excellence depends upon
hours and hours (10,000 hours, to be precise) of "deliberate practice"—be
it the young Mozart composing, the young Tiger Woods practicing, or any
aspiring concert violinist. The same, by extension, is true of
surgeons, mathematicians, CFO's—and lawyers and writers. As
Colvin puts it, this is good news and bad news:
"What would cause you to do the enormous work necessary to be a top-performing CEO, Wall Street trader, jazz, pianist, courtroom lawyer, or anything else? Would anything? The answer depends on your answers to two basic questions: What do you really want? And what do you really believe? What you want - really want - is fundamental because deliberate practice is a heavy investment."
- Jerry Coyne's Why
Evolution Is True. Demolishes creationism and "intelligent
design"—and then intellectually carpet-bombs them again, to
make sure "the rubble bounces," as Churchill described the
goal of a particular bombing campaign in WWII—but does so with
respect and patience. I can do no better than to repeat the aphorism
that "Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution." Coyne
explains why, and brings you up to date on recent developments in this
endlessly fascinating science in the bargain.
- Niall Ferguson's The
Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the
World: Ferguson recapitulates the history of money from the
pre-Christian era through today's subprime meltdown and global credit freeze,
noting that bubbles are as much a part of economic history as are booms and
concluding with a warning that excessively precautionary regulation cannot
and should not remove the possibility of extinction for institutions which
are weak. That is to say, financial crises should and must result
in casualties. Or, as Joseph Schumpeter put it in The Theory of
Economic Development (1934): "This economic system cannot
do without the ultima ratio of hte complete destruction of those
existences which are irretrievably associated with the hopelessly unadapted."
- Dexter Filkins' The
Forever War A harrowing account of the "war
on terror" from the rise of the Taliban in the 1990's through virtually
today in Iraq and Afghanistan, by one of the New York Times' star reporters.
- Michael Lewis' Panic: The
Story of Modern Financial Insanity, a tour de horizon of recent financial
embarrassments, using the tool of reproducing contemporaneous (and a few
subsequent) accounts and analyses, and covering the collapse of Long Term
Capital Management, the Asian financial crisis of the 1990's, the dotcom
meltdown, and early warning signals of our present distress. Plus
c'est change.
- Jessica Livingston's Founders
at Work: Stories of Startups' Early Days. The
stories of mostly legendary (and a few relatively obscure) entrepreneurs,
told in their own words through extensive interviews, about the early
days at their would-be companies, including: Max Levchin/PayPal,
Steve Wozniak/Apple, Mike Lazaridis/Research in Motion, Mike Ramsay/Tivo,
Charles Geschke/Adobe, and Ron Gruner/Alliant Computer. Utterly
charming. And the moral? (1) Expect the unexpected. (2)
And meet it with persistence.
- Daniel Pink's A
Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers Will Rule the Future. Pink's
thesis, fairly widely adopted today, is that human economic organization
has moved from the agricultural to the industrial to the information
and now to the conceptual age, where the value is on those individuals
and firms capable of integrating empathy, meaning, design, and a narrative
(a/k/a "story") to their products and services. If
you or your firm can't master those skills, beware of "Asia, Abundance,
and Automation."
- Robert Samuelson's The
Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The
Past and Future of American Affluance. An economic and political
history of what is now a curiously forgotten period, the "great inflation"
of the 1970's and early 1980's, famously cut off at the knees, along with
much economic activity, by Paul Volcker and Ronald Reagan in the 1981-'82
recession. Not, perhaps, a deep or subtle read, but a fascinating
and thorough portrayal of, as I say, an oddly invisible era.
Enjoy.
November 15, 2008
BigLaw & The Big Three
Consider Detroit's Big Three.
Having made what turned out to be bad bets on over-investing in now shunned product lines, they've been conspicuously laying people off, downsizing, attempting to renegotiate credit lines, and furiously trying to revamp their product offerings to align to and conform with the world's new reality.
Sound familiar?
It should because the same description, with variants in emphasis, could apply to our industry.
So I have a modest proposal: Let's put all our lawyer brethren in Congress—surely we should at least get some good out of the vast over-representation our colleagues enjoy in poliitics—working on a bailout bill for BigLaw.
I owe the genesis of this insight to a faithful reader, Brent Jeffcoat, of McGuire Woods' Charlotte office. He frames the key argument nicely:
When do law firms start seeking federal assistance? After all, think of all the people we affect: our young associates marry and live in condominiums in urban centers. We probably support Starbucks. Allen Edmonds is toast. Many high-end automobile dealerships will suffer mightily without the patronage of lawyers. I mean, the list goes on. Think of all those poor guys in Scotland who will not be able to sell their single malt whiskeys. It would be a global crisis of unimaginable proportions if one or two of the AmLaw 100 were to fail. The Federal government has got to step in and lend a hand. Before year-end or else the distributions will be hit. Heck, many people in the medical industry are dependent upon elective cosmetic procedures scheduled just after year-end distributions. America needs us to survive. Who will keep the kept women?
This is firmly in keeping with the evident economic philosophy of our times. Who needs Microsoft, Intel, Starbucks, or, for that matter, Target? Wouldn't we all be better off in a world dominated by Wang, DEC, Howard Johnson's, and Nash Rambler? And isn't your dream for your kids that they can grow up and join the UAW? Don't you wish you could, to paraphrase William F. Bucklkey, stand astride the tide of history and cry, "Stop!"?
Joseph Schumpeter (Mr. "Creative Destruction"), and Adam Smith himself, would be outraged and appalled. And rightly so.
Permit me to remind our colleagues in Congress what happens when a company declares the dreaded "bankruptcy:" Its workers are not taken out and shot, its factories and offices are not incinerated, and its customers' demand does not evaporate. Rather, all those assets and market forces are reallocated elsewhere. If the Big Three have demonstrated anything over the past 30 years, it is their unrivalled managerial genius at misallocating productive assets and falling ever further behind their rivals. Time, one might think, to give someone else a chance to deploy those assets.
Sympathetic as I am to law firms struggling with yesterday'spractice areas, and to lawyers rudely discovering the urgency of reinventing themselves, the dynamism of the market will not abate.
That is something devoutly to be celebrated.
October 18, 2008
Nobel Prize in Economics/2008
Not every day do we get a new Nobel Prize winner in Economics, not to mention one whose name, Paul Krugman, might actually be familiar to more Americans than the few of us who are poor closet economists. Krugman is of course not only a Princeton professor (we pause to take pride here in the home team), but a regular op-ed columnist in The New York Times where he is known for wielding a hatchet against all things touching or concerning the Bush Administration.
As for his Times op-ed columns, we are, as you know, resolutely apolitical here at "Adam Smith, Esq." Perhaps the best that can be said of those is that we come not to praise but to bury them in the context of his winning the Prize. Or, as was said more pungently in Australia's National Post, "You don't get the Nobel Prize in Economics for writing newspaper columns (as I've been trying to explain to my mother the last couple of days). So the prize awarded Monday to Paul Krugman should not be read as an endorsement of Krugman's uber-Democratic newspapering."
Actually, I'll give the last word on his Times op-eds to his fellow columnist Maureen Dowd:
"I'm not sending Paul Krugman Champagne.
He won the Nobel prize in economics this week, and while I'm sure that's delightful for him, it has raised the bar to an impossible height for his fellow columnists at The Times. We used to strive for Pulitzers, or simply regional awards, or even just try to top each other on the paper's most e-mailed list.Now we're supposed to compete for Nobels?"
We're here to take a brief interlude, a detour, if you will, into economic theory and into what Krugman's Nobel is all about.
Classic models of trade between countries, stemming from David Ricardo's shockingly brilliant concept of "comparative advantage," predicted, in theory, that trade flows would depend on such things as ratios of capital to labor, with capital-rich countries exporting capital-intensive goods and importing labor-intensive goods from labor-rich countries.
But that's not what the data showed. In reality, most international trade takes place between countries with very similar capital:labor ratios.
Krugman sought to, and succeeded in, explaining this. His explanation was based on economies of scale and on transaction costs across distances. What does this mean?
Economies of scale mean that producer incentives are to concentrate production in a limited number of locations. Too abstract? Let's make it concrete: There's a reason Silicon Valley is a self-reinforcing hub of high technology and innovation in general. An engineering and entrepreneurial culture combined with venture capitalists combined with a world-class research university (Stanford) combined with a very start-up friendly business ecosystem has made it a hotbed for new companies.
Similarly, New York and London are likely to remain global financial centers as far as the eye can see. They both have the infrastructure that sophisticated financial professionals depend on. Permit me to state the obvious ones:
- English
- Entrepreneurial cultures
- The Anglo-Saxon common law tradition, and the rule of law
- An indigenous infrastructure of banks, law firms, marketing professionals, and all the multifarious support professions.
And the less obvious:
- Workable, if not Asian-clean-slate, physical infrastructures
- Terrific international air connections
- Fabulous stores, restaurants, museums, parks, and schools
- Great, and highly diverse, residential and commercial real estate
But back to Krugman.
He described his basic findings in the 1992 "Geography & Trade:"
"Because of economies of scale, producers have an incentive to concentrate production of each good or service in a limited number of locations. Because of the cost of transacting across distance, the preferred locations for each individual producer are those where demand is large or supply of inputs is particularly convenient -- which in general are the locations chosen by other producers. Thus [geographical] concentrations of industry, once established, tend to be self-sustaining."
An example he used was that the auto industry in capital-intensive Sweden exports cars to capital-intensive America while also importing cars from America. The logic is that both Volvo and GM can reduce costs by producing a relatively large output (sufficient to satisfy worldwide demand) in particular geographic niches where the requisite inputs are concentrated.
Krugman, of course, was building on the theory of comparative advantage, which he explained perhaps most famously in "Ricardo's Difficult Idea." Comparative advantage is a theory at once powerful and notoriously elusive, which--although beloved by economists, including yours truly--seems to inspire incomprehension even by those who loudly retort that while they subscribe to it, they only happen to see certain exceptions applying, which are only visible to those with a particularly subtle intellect.
At that point you know you're in the company of someone whose fellow intellectual travelers include those who proclaim their belief in evolution while demanding equal time in the schools for "intelligent design." They say they believe, but they don't believe.
Here's where Krugman's brilliant "Ricardo's Difficult Idea" comes into play. Permit me to quote at some length (my own Cliff's Notes version is here at the bottom):
My objective in this essay is to try to explain why intellectuals who are interested in economic issues so consistently balk at the concept of comparative advantage. Why do journalists who have a reputation as deep thinkers about world affairs begin squirming in their seats if you try to explain how trade can lead to mutually beneficial specialization? Why is it virtually impossible to get a discussion of comparative advantage, not only onto newspaper op-ed pages, but even into magazines that cheerfully publish long discussions of the work of Jacques Derrida? Why do policy wonks who will happily watch hundreds of hours of talking heads droning on about the global economy refuse to sit still for the ten minutes or so it takes to explain Ricardo?
[...]
At a deeper level, comparative advantage is a harder concept than it seems, because like any scientific concept it is actually part of a dense web of linked ideas. A trained economist looks at the simple Ricardian model and sees a story that can be told in a few minutes; but in fact to tell that story so quickly one must presume that one's audience understands a number of other stories involving how competitive markets work, what determines wages, how the balance of payments adds up, and so on.
[...]
I believe that much of the ineffectiveness of economists in public debate comes from their false supposition that intelligent people who read and even write about world trade must grasp the idea of comparative advantage. With very few exceptions, they don't -- and they don't even want to hear about it. Why?
[...}
[I]f one tries to explain the basic model to a non-economist, it soon becomes clear that it really isn't that simple after all.
There are, I believe, at least three implicit assumptions that underlie the most basic Ricardian model, assumptions that are justified by the whole fabric of economic understanding but are not at all obvious to non-economists. Here they are:
- Wages are determined in a national labor market: The basic Ricardian model envisages a single factor, labor, which can move freely between industries. When one tries to talk about trade with laymen, however, one at least sometimes realizes that they do not think about things that way at all. They think about steelworkers, textile workers, and so on; there is no such thing as a national labor market. It does not occur to them that the wages earned in one industry are largely determined by the wages similar workers are earning in other industries. This has several consequences. First, unless it is carefully explained, the standard demonstration of the gains from trade in a Ricardian model -- workers can earn more by moving into the industries in which you have a comparative advantage -- simply fails to register with lay intellectuals. Their picture is of aircraft workers gaining and textile workers losing, and the idea that it is useful even for the sake of argument to imagine that workers can move from one industry to the other is foreign to them.
Not is it obvious to non-economists that wages are endogenous. Someone looks at Vietnam and asks, "what would happen if people who work for such low wages manage to achieve Western productivity?" The economist's answer is, "if they achieve Western productivity, they will be paid Western wages" -- as has in fact happened in Japan. But to the non-economist this conclusion is neither natural nor plausible.
- Constant employment is a reasonable approximation: The standard textbook version of the Ricardian model assumes full employment in both countries. But in reality unemployment is constantly a concern of economic policy -- so why is this the usual assumption? There are two answers. One -- the answer that Ricardo would have given -- is that international trade is a long-run issue, and that in the long run the economy has a natural self-correcting tendency to return to full employment. The other, more modern answer is that countries have central banks, which try to stabilize employment around the NAIRU ["Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment"--Bruce]; so that it makes sense to think of the Federal Reserve and its counterparts acting in the background to hold employment constant. This is not at all the way that non-economists think about the issue.
- The balance of payments is not a problem: The standard textbook presentation of the Ricardian model assumes balanced trade -- indeed, it is usually a one-period model in which trade must be balanced. Yet the news is full of stories about the balance of payments, of complaints about trade surpluses and deficits. Why are these absent from the story?
Again, economists have good reasons for thinking that it is a good approximation to separate balance of payments from real international trade issues. In Ricardo's case, the essential ingredient was the argument by David Hume that trade imbalances are self-correcting: a surplus country will acquire specie, leading to rising prices that price its goods out of world markets, while a deficit country will correspondingly find its goods increasingly competitively priced. In the modern world, again, the channels involve less Invisible Hand and more government intervention: when monetary policies target the unemployment rate, exchange rates do the adjusting. Economists are also aware that even persistent trade imbalances are not necessarily a problem, and certainly that surpluses are not a sure sign of health or deficits one of weakness.
Permit me to try to summarize the virtues of comparative advantage.
The benefits of trade do not depend on countries' having absolute advantages over other countries, but only on having comparative advantages. This means that a country that is absolutely disadvantaged in producing all relevant goods and services can still benefit from trade. The secret is opportunity costs, not absolute costs.
Consider two hypothetical countries, North and South, which produce only two goods, food and clothes. If each country devoted its entire economy to producing food, North would produce 100 tons and South 200 tons. Similarly, if each devoted everything to clothes production, each would produce 100 tons of clothes. South appears absolutely advantaged, so where's the benefit from trade?
First, let's pretend that each country is equally predisposed to consumption of food and of clothes, so that each devotes 50% of their productive capacity to each. This produces:
| Food | Clothes | |
|---|---|---|
| North | 50 | 50 |
| South | 100 | 50 |
| Total | 150 | 100 |
Now let's assume trade barriers are lifted and each concentrates entirely on its preferred output in anticipation of being able to trade. This yields:
| Food | Clothes | |
|---|---|---|
| North | 0 | 100 |
| South | 200 | 0 |
| Total | 200 | 100 |
Of course, this "production" leaves North starving and South naked.
So if we introduce actual trade and imagine some arbitrary preference "price" of one ton of Food for 2/3 ton of Clothes, we get:
| Food | Clothes | |
|---|---|---|
| North | 75 | 50 |
| South | 125 | 50 |
| Total | 200 | 100 |
Everyone is better off.
Now, if you still don't believe me, consider the famous "attorney/typist" example.
Suppose you're the best lawyer in town and also the fastest typist in town; you have an absolute advantage in both.
Q1: Are you going to go to work as a secretary? Obviously not. You put your absolute advantage as a lawyer to its highest use.
Q2: Are you going to type your own documents? Obviously not. You put your comparative advantage as a lawyer to its highest use.
You are now a subscriber to the doctrine of free trade.
July 5, 2008
Adam Smith Monument in Edinburgh
At long last, Adam Smith has been honored in his native Edinburgh, with a prominent statue outside St. Giles' Cathedral on the Royal Mile.
As reported by the FT, the unveiling was yesterday:

Vernon Smith, the George Mason law and economics professor and winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics, and a lifelong Adam Smith admirer, performed the unveiling. His 2002 Prize was shared 50/50 with Daniel Kahneman of Princeton for their work in "having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-making under uncertainty" and ""for having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms." (We call this behavioral economics.)
The statue cost nearly half a million dollars (£250,000), entirely paid for by private subscriptions organized by the Adam Smith Institute. The Paisley sculptor Sandy Stoddard designed and produced the monument, which shows Smith in academic robes.
High time for a return visit to Edinburgh.
June 5, 2008
Happy Birthday, Adam Smith
Today, June 5th, is Adam Smith's birthday, in the year 1723. He would be 285 today.
As I noted a year ago today, he was born in Kirkcaldy, Scotland, a dozen miles north of Edinburgh across the Firth of Forth:

Although his birth home has since been demolished (all that remains is a plaque commemorating its location), we do know where he's buried, in Canongate Churchyard on the Royal Mile in Edinburgh:

The inscription reads:
"Here are deposited the remains of ADAM
SMITH
Author of the Theory of Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations:
He was born 5th June, 1725 [sic: 1723] and died 17th July, 1790."
June 5, 2007
Happy Birthday, Adam Smith
Today is Adam Smith's Birthday: June 5, 1723. He would be 284 today.
He was born in Kirkcaldy, Scotland, about 12 miles north of Edinburgh across the Firth of Forth, and is buried just off the Royal Mile in Edinburgh itself. Although there is no memorial to Adam Smith in Edinburgh, aside from his gravestone, one has been proposed, which would look roughly like this:
My birthday was just two days—and a few centuries—later. I expect no monuments in Edinburgh.
April 23, 2007
Would Adam Smith (1776) Publish Online?
At the intersection of the original Adam Smith and the 'net is, well, irresistible territory. And now we have it in the current Forbes, courtesy of P.J. O'Rourke's "Adam Smith: Web Junkie."
Here's the thesis, which is indisputably correct:
"I wonder if the know-it-alls at Wikipedia realize that the Internet was fully described and completely understood more than 200 years ago by Adam Smith, founder of free market economics. [...]
"In The Wealth of Nations , published in 1776, Adam Smith explained the three factors that constitute the free market: pursuit of self-interest, division of labor and freedom of trade. There you have the Internet without so much as a mouse click. [...]
"The Internet is not a wonderful new world. The Internet just is a natural extension of the free market."
But it's deeper than that, at least to my way of thinking.
Every time I see or read another hyper-ventilating media expose of that old devil the Internet, with its fraud, its cons, its porn, its deviants, and its identity thieves, I can't help but think of the marvelous, uplifting, inspirational, fascinating, and deeply challenging experiences that constitute my own personal history of exposure to the 'net.
And in trying to reconcile these views, the answer is really staring us in the face: Humans created the 'net, and the 'net reflects us. So lots of traffic (read: attention) goes to news, sports, money, food, family, travel, sex (of course), health, shopping, commerce—you get the idea. I'd wager that the proportion of off-line, "real world" assets and dollars devoted to each of those categories is almost precisely mirrored online.
But back to Adam Smith.
The 'net promotes, above all, connections. And this brings us to P.J. O'Rourke's key, and deadly serious, insight:"In The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith said that an individual "stands at all times in need of the co-operation and assistance of great multitudes, while his whole life is scarce sufficient to gain the friendship of a few persons."
"Smith saw that the free market answered liberty's need for a larger network of voluntary association. The pursuit of self-interest means that the free market has built-in incentives for network maintenance and expansion."
"Since networks are self-organizing they are, like all do-it-yourself projects, a mess. This makes networks too hard for any one person to understand, let alone dominate.
" Most of our lives are spent in channels or chains of command or circuits. Networks release us from this. We are presented with numerous alternative connections. On the Internet these connections are, without intending a pun, virtually unlimited. We can take our business elsewhere or be that elsewhere by starting a business of our own.
"Networks aren't egalitarian. Michael Dell always will be a bigger node than we are. But networks aren't hierarchal, either. There's no top and bottom to them, no magnetic north of authority. It's all side-to-side and back and forth. Detours, shortcuts and work-around's make a network."
In other words, the 'net permits us to create new connections, to launch new conversations, and to form new micro-communities neither foreseen nor exhorted by any person or group directing our actions or our attention. Sounds like a free market to me. If, as O'Rourke says, "the Internet is an advance for voluntary association," then Adam Smith would surely approve.
And of course he'd be publishing working drafts of Wealth of Nations online for critical commentary as they were done.
.
December 30, 2006
"Wealth" and "Conscience"
At "Adam Smith, Esq.," we don't talk about Adam Smith himself very much, but at year-end it seems appropriate to pay a moment's homage to this site's intellectual godfather and, I hope, provide those of you who may not have studied him closely a slightly more nuanced perspective of his views.
To start, there could be no better introduction than this discussion of the interplay between his most famous work, obviously, The Wealth of Nations, and its predecessor by 17 years, the relatively unsung Theory of Moral Sentiments. The piece takes off from Adam's Fallacy: A Guide to Economic Theology, written by Duncan Foley of New School University in New York, which is described as "a beautiful little book. It contains some of the most lucid exposition of the core ideas of economics that I have ever read." (The reviewer is David Warsh, author of Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations, which I will soon be reviewing here; Warsh is a former Boston Globe columnist.)
The "fallacy" of "Adam [Smith]" is this:
"So what exactly is Adam's fallacy? According to Foley, it's "the idea that it is possible to separate an economic sphere of life, in which the pursuit of self-interest is guided by objective laws to a socially beneficent outcome, from the rest of social life, in which the pursuit of self interest is morally problematic and has to be weighed against other ends." This abstraction of an economic sphere from the messy complexity of real life is indeed the kernel of present-day economics.
But this entirely overlooks Moral Sentiments (for the 18th-Century phrase "moral sentiments," substitute today's more apt "conscience," and your understanding will increase), which opens thus:
"How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it except the pleasure of seeing it.... The greatest ruffian, the most hardened violator of the laws of society, is not altogether without it."And Adam Smith is astutely attuned to the inability to cabin human beings into the rigor of the model of homo economicus, without attending to the social and psychological realities of free will, choice, and impulse:
And here he describes "the man of system," who "seems to imagine that he can arrange the different members of a great society with as much ease as the hand arranges the different pieces on a chess-board; he does not consider that the pieces on a chess-board have no principle of motion besides that which the hand impresses on them; but that, in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of motion of its own altogether different from that which the legislature might choose to impress upon it."
Indeed, these extra-homo economicus considerations are not just competitive with rational, gimlet-eyed, calculating analytics, at times they overwhelm "reason" altogether:
"What is it that prompts the generous, on all occasions, and the mean, upon many, to sacrifice their own interests to the greater interests of others? Is it not the soft power of humanity, is it not that feeble spark of benevolence which Nature has lighted up in the human heart, that is capable of counteracting the strongest impulses of self-love?"
Now, for some reason, the received wisdom handed down over 200 years later about Adam Smith is that he abandoned these views with publication of The Wealth of Nations. Well, I'll spare you the academic arguments, but suffice to say there's not a scintilla of evidence that was the case. Indeed, the better reasoned side of the debate, able to marshal far more evidence in support of its view, is that Smith intended a third and possibly even a fourth volume (cut short by his death, and his mandated destruction of all his unpublished manuscripts) reconciling and extending Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations by adding to the mix a treatise on the theory and impact of law and another on science and the arts.
So where are we left here in the 21st Century?
Economics, a somewhat feckless discipline for the last few decades (there you have, in a nutshell, why I never entertained the notion of pursuing a Ph.D. in economics), has opted to "model what it can at the expense of ignoring what it cannot," and "moral sentiments" are famously unsusceptible to modeling.
One of my fonder, if milder, hopes is that my beloved discipline of economics will come to grasp more strongly the world as it really is with all its human complexity and contradiction, and return from its exile in the arid, mathematically intricate "blackboard economics" domain of homo rationalis economicus.
Happy New Year.
November 8, 2006
The "Adam Smith, Esq." Monthly Book Review: "The Authentic Adam Smith," by James Buchan
James Buchan, The Authentic Adam Smith (W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.: New York, 2006) has recently come out and it is an irresistible selection for this month's "Adam Smith, Esq." Monthly Book Review. I hope you understand.
Buchan, a Brit, lives in Norfolk, England, and has been a foreign correspondent for The Financial Times as well as the author of Frozen Desire, an examination of money through history, as well as Crowded with Genius, a study of Edinburgh during the Enlightenment. Better credentials for profiling Adam Smith are hard to imagine.
Which Buchan does succinctly: In the small span of 145 not-large pages (not counting extensive endnotes). And what story does he tell? Essentially, a more complex and sophisticated view of Adam Smith than those ideologues of left and right today who would denounce or embrace him as a fairly one-dimensional proponent of laissez-faire, free markets, and limited government.
Smith, in fact, viewed himself not as an economist (the term had barely been invented), but as a moral philosopher. Buchan stresses the importance of The Theory of Moral Sentiments, which predated The Wealth of Nations by 17 years, and implicitly critiques too-casual "followers" of Smith today who invoke his name in ignorance of what Smith actually wrote.
As for Smith's personal life, it's safe to say he was an eccentric preoccupied with the life of the mind. He never married and lived much of his life as an adult with his mother. Although he became wealthy through tutoring the Duke of Buccleuch through a multi-year tour of the European continent, followed by a lifelong retainer of £900/year (more than the most highly-compensated Scottish judges at the time), and considered himself "as affluent as I could wish to be," it was only after his death that we learned he gave away most of his wealth to charitable causes.
An unexplored—or unknown, hitherto, by me—aspect of Smith's thinking were his views on maintenance of the British Empire, and specifically on control of the American colonies (recall that Wealth of Nations was published in the almost preposterously apropos year of 1776). Smith's view, in a word? Set America free.
He came at this both through his economic analysis of matters, and from his experience of military affairs. The second first: As Buchan puts it (p. 112), "Smith, who like many Scotsmen of his social class had wide connexions with military officers, was able to see that an American militia, once it had served long enough to achieve military discipline, might be a match for the redcoats."
And as for the first? He believed that Britain's attempt:
"To prohibit a great people, however, from making all that they can of every part of their own produce, or from employing their stock and industry in the way that they judge most advantageous to themselves, is a manifest violation of the most sacred right of mankind."And there's more: He foresaw the United States eclipsing the mother country economically.
"Such has hitherto been the rapid progress of that country in wealth, population and improvement, that in the course of little more than a century, perhaps, the produce of American might exceed that of British taxation. The seat of the empire would then naturally remove itself to that part of the empire which contributed most to the general defence and support of the whole."
As the expenses of the American war effort escalated, Smith became convinced of "the real futility of all distant dominions."
Smith died in Edinburgh on Saturday, July 17, 1790, aged 67, after a few years of declining health. In February of that year he remarked:
"I meant to have done more; and there are materials in my papers, of which I could have made a great deal. But that is now out of the question."
The night before he died, he took leave of his friends at dinner saying, as he left the room, "I believe we must adjourn this meeting to some other place."
Pick up Buchan's book; you'll learn much in short order, and may even, familiar as you believe you may be with Smith, learn something new. I did.
October 30, 2006
1.2 Billion Copies of Adam Smith To Be In Circulation Next Year
Courtesy of a UK reader comes word that Adam Smith will adorn the new £20 banknote to be issued by the Bank of England next spring. In The Guardian's coverage, the headline is "Adam Smith becomes first Scot to adorn an English banknote."
The £20 note is the most widely circulated of all denominations, with approximately 1.2-billion copies issued. Aside from the portrait of Adam Smith there will appear "an engraving showing the division of labour in pin manufacturing with the words "and the great increase in the quantity of work that results"."
Perhaps predictably, there has been some genial sparring between left and right over who has the better claim to his legacy: The left pointing largely to The Theory of Moral Sentiments and its theme of the universality of human sympathy for others, while the right points to the "invisible hand" guided by the self-interest of each, with a minimum of governmental or societal interference, to produce the economically optimal results. Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, offered a nicely inclusive statement:
"Social institutions and market economies go hand-in-hand," said Mr King. "Second, people who, for the most part, pursue their own self-interest, are also prepared to stand back and ask how their actions should be constrained by social institutions. Such institutions arise because we build them."
I see a trip to the UK in my future to procure one of these, suitable for framing.
August 7, 2006
On Negotiation: From Harvard, Wharton, and Adam Smith
We all negotiate: Some of us for a living, others of us just in order to live. Most of us, I suspect, approach a negotiation without much of a coherent view or approach on what distinguishes a successful and effective negotiation, that leaves both parties economically and emotionally satisfied, from a failed one that disserves one's interests and damages the relationship in the bargain.
But professors at Harvard and at Wharton, among many other places, actually study the dynamics of negotiations and it turns out there are commonalities between better negotiators; you actually can make fairly objective observations about behaviors that will improve your chances of success. In reading the pieces I did in preparation for writing this, the thought occurred to me more than once that "I knew that!" Well, perhaps I did, but I had not articulated it. And if you haven't articulated something, how well do you actually know it?
Back to negotiations: A key issue is that of trust. Are there ways to work on building trust? And conversely, if trust has been impaired, is it recoverable?
On the first question, we have "Six Ways to Build Trust in Negotiations" from Harvard Business School's "Working Knowledge." To affirmatively build trust:
- Speak the other party's language. This is more than knowing the jargon of an industry, although it surely includes that as a baseline minimum. (The article recounts the sorry tale of a technology consulting firm invited to bid on re-working an airline's ticketing process who didn't know that in airline-land a "lift" means a paper ticket—and who had to ask what it was. Game over.
But more fundamentally, if you haven't taken the time to demonstrate familiarity with the other side's culture, history, and perspective, how committed to the mutual engagement are they going to think you are?
- Manage your own reputation. One can hope that if you and the other party know each other already, that this is taken care of. And if it's "taken care of" in the sense that your own reputation is in tatters with them, you probably have another priority than worrying about this impending negotiation. The interesting case is where you're relative strangers: How do you pre-manage your reputation then? Case studies of what you've accomplished in similar situations go a long way; so do testimonials from third parties widely seen as objective. The point is not to assume that because you know how good you've been in the past, they will too.
- Be prepared to be dependent. Psychologically, it's awkward for many of us to admit we're dependent on someone else. Let go of that; dare to let the other party know that you're relying on them for a reciprocal dialogue by which you can achieve your own goals, as well as furthering theirs. The courage to display a little vulnerability can in and of itself promote trust.
- Consider unilateral concessions. Not on the ultimate issues, of course, but in order to demonstrate that you value the relationship itself, consider it a friendly one, and that you expect it to endure over time. The trick to a "unilateral concession" is that it have asymmetric value: It needs to be relatively inconsequential for you to offer but of real value to the other side. Whether there's such an opportunity is of course highly "fact specific," as they say, but be on the lookout and seize the chance if it should arise.
While we're on concessions, something virtually all articles on negotiation agree on is this:
- Label your concessions as such. Won't the other side obviously know it's a concession? Objectively, perhaps; but psychologically, parties in a negotiation are often (even unconsciously) ready to ignore, discount, or devalue the other side's concessions because it relieves them of the social and moral expectation of reciprocity. An "unrequited concession," in turn, can cause the first mover to retreat into resentment and a vow to pursue only hardball tactics going forward. To help ward this off, explain how what you're giving up is really a meaningful sacrifice.
- Explain your demands. This may be obvious, but be prepared for the likelihood that the other side, particularly if you're relative strangers, may not assume the best about your motives and intentions. It's a truism that we tend to regard ourselves positively and others with suspicion—at least if we're in potential conflitc with them. So, for example, if a literary agent tells an author that the commission on international sales is higher than on domestic sales, the agent better immediately explain that it's because she has to split the commission with a foreign agent in the first case and that she actually ends up with less for herself. While the author's economic circumstance is precisely unchanged, at least he understands the agent's expectation for international sales.
What if trust has been impaired? Is it terminally damaged goods?
According to three professors of operations, information management, and marketing over at Knowledge@Wharton, not necessarily. They constructed a little laboratory money game where subjects were given $6 in each of seven rounds of the game and told that they could keep it all, in which case they simply went to the next round with their $6, or else they could give it all away to an unseen co-player (a stooge of the professors) who would receive triple the $6 ($18) and would be at liberty to decide how much, if any, to return to the first player.
At the outset, nearly everyone passed on the $6 and everyone who did was double-crossed, getting nothing in return. To increase the complexity of things, half the players also got a note from the stooge promising to return $12 next time—upon which they also reneged.
Trust now thoroughly shattered, what happened on the final five rounds was invariant: If they passed on the $6, they got back $9—an effort to establish a (belated) pattern of trustworthy behavior. In addition, some of the stooges passed their players a note containing an apology ("I really screwed up. I shouldn't have done that."), a promise ("I give you my word. I'll return $9 every round.") or both.
Fine: So what did the good professors learn?
Essentially, that untrustworthy behavior is very very bad, but that deception is atrocious.
In other words, if you're going to disappoint or double-cross somebody, don't lie to them about it on top of things.
Did the apologies do any good? Actually, "it didn't seem to matter much at all." The professors hastily add that the specific apology they used in the game might have been at fault for this finding, since it fell short of what other researchers have identified as the five key components of an effective apology. Since you asked, they are:
- the statement of apology itself; I'm sorry
- remorse; I feel bad
- an offer of restitution
- self-castigation; I was a jerk, and
- a request for forgiveness.
The promise to do better in future, on the other hand, had some measure of traction in helping speed restoration of trust. The only caution on this score is, of course, not to make promises you can't keep.
But all in all, won't your next negotiation be far simpler and more likely of success if you never open the door to your trustworthiness being doubted in the first place?
Indeed, and Adam Smith would agree. Earlier this year, HBS' Working Knowledge interviewed a professor who had read "The Theory of Moral Sentiments," not just "The Wealth of Nations," and who had this to say:
"Q: What do you think Adam Smith's advice to business leaders would be concerning corporate ethics given what he writes about trust?
"A: This is a great question. Smith believed that there were certain virtues, such as trust and a concern for fairness, that were vital for the functioning of a market economy. He wrote about trust and reciprocity as critical foundations of the early beginnings of the market, allowing reciprocal gift exchange to emerge, and leading to trade. One might think that the need for trust and trustworthiness diminishes as a market develops, but if anything the opposite is true.
"For example, we trust managers to carry out the interests of shareholders: We can build contracts to align manager incentives with those of shareholders, but we are never able to completely contract on all the things we care about and want to enforce. Implicitly, then, we hold a belief that managers have internalized the values we care about, and trust them to act on those, particularly when they might come in conflict with their own interests.
"There are similarly other professions where individuals are entrusted to serve, like doctors, teachers, auditors, but cannot be monitored fully. We thus rely on these individuals' professionalism and honor (or "enlightened self interest") to carry out their occupations.
"Across organizations, in the marketplace, factors like brand reputation and warranties help facilitate transactions without requiring complete trust. Within organizations, the issue of trust and trustworthiness—of employees to their bosses, of managers to each other and to shareholders—becomes even more important, and even more difficult to replace by market forces or better incentives and contracts.
"Thus, Smith's advice to business leaders would likely be that they should weigh carefully the costs of breaking trust and of risking reputation. The costs of sacrificing ethical standards of conduct are much larger than any individual might imagine, precisely because they decrease trust and can strongly affect organizational and market functioning as a whole."
Further affiant sayeth not.
June 5, 2006
Guess Whose Birthday It Is?
Today, June 5, we celebrate the 283rd Birthday of Adam Smith, born in Kirkcaldy (pronounced kir-kawdy), Scotland, about 10 miles north of Edinburgh across the Firth of Forth.
Actually, the precise date of his birth is unrecorded and unknown, but we do know that he was baptized on June 5, so that has become his "received" birthday, as it were.
You may celebrate—or not, but that would be a grievous oversight—in your own way, but I choose today to remark upon the publication of a new book about his life and thoughts, reviewed in The Telegraph. (Yes, for those of you who've followed or will follow the links, the name of the book is different in the UK than the US; and if anyone from the publishing industry can tell me why "Adam Smith and the Pursuit of Perfect Liberty" is preferred across the pond to "The Authentic Adam Smith: His Life & Times" on this side, I'd be fascinated to hear from you. Being completely promiscuous when it comes to all things Adam Smith, I'd buy the book were it titled, "What Adam Smith's Dog Had for Breakfast," but I digress.)
Amazon has this to say:
"The Scottish philosopher Adam Smith (1723-1790) has been adopted by neoconservatives as the ideological father of unregulated business and small government. Politicians such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan promoted Smith's famous 1776 book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, as the bible of laissez- faire economics. In this vigorous, crisp, and accessible book, James Buchan refutes much of what modern politicians and economists claim about Adam Smith and shows that, in fact, Smith transcends modern political categories."
Although I might not have put it in such a Manichean fashion (neoconservative = Thatcher/Reagan = unregulated business = laissez-faire), the publicist has a point, and it's the key insight into Adam Smith's thinking that I've always subscribed to: He does, indeed, "transcend" categorization.
The Telegraph review makes the same point far more nicely:
"James Buchan's short, sharp biography makes a powerful case for thinking that, for Smith, these divisions [in his own thinking] were creatively enabling rather than self-canceling: they were what gave his writing its characteristic sense of balance and poise."
By and large, the Telegraph is laudatory, which is altogether fitting and proper for this June 5, 2006.
I leave you, gentle reader, with these two observations on this site's progenitor: The reviewer describes Adam Smith's style as "modest, generous and urbane, with the occasional hint of wistfulness or acid," and sums up the book as "the perfect celebration of a man who did so much to alter modern economic thinking, and claimed towards the end of his life: "I meant to have done more." "
Happy Birthday.
June 1, 2006
Aren't You Glad You Majored in Economics?
From the Journal of Economic Education (hat tip to "Truth on the Market") comes the first study I'm familiar with examining whether the choice of undergraduate major has any effect on a lawyer's career earnings. And guess what? If you major in economics, it helps; majoring in anything else makes no difference.
Here's the abstract, in full (emphasis supplied):
"Using nationally representative data, the authors examine the effects of preprofessional education on the earnings of lawyers. They specify and estimate a statistical earnings function on the basis of well-established theory and principles. Along with standard control variables, categorical variables are included to represent graduate degrees in addition to the law degree and an assortment of undergraduate major fields. Holding a Ph.D. or M.B.A. degree, with the law degree, is associated with significantly higher earnings in some sectors. Lawyers with undergraduate training in economics earn more than other lawyers, ceteris paribus, and economics is the only undergraduate field associated with earnings that differ significantly. The available evidence supports the hypothesis that economics training increases a lawyer’s human capital compared with other undergraduate majors."
That still doesn't mean Adam Smith would become a lawyer were he alive today; but I know in my heart that he would have an active and energetic blog.
May 8, 2006
The Dismal Science at Age 230
"The dismal science?" You won't be surprised to hear that that's about the last way I'd describe the art and discipline of economics, and a new book, Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations, reviewed by Paul Krugman in yesterday's Sunday Times Book Review sounds like a wonderfully exciting intellectual exploration of why I believe economics retains its ability to fascinate as it attempts to explain how people, ideas, and things interact to try to produce value.
The author, David Warsh, a former economics correspondent at the Boston Globe, Forbes, and The Wall Street Journal, writes the online weekly, "Economic Principals." The book tells the story of how academic understanding of increasing returns to scale, and indeed of growth itself, was revolutionized in the past few decades by introducing the concept of knowledge itself as a factor of production, at long last joining the classical triumvirate of land (a/k/a tangible resources), capital, and labor.
When a book gets advance praise like this, the reason I continue to adore economics should be clear:
“Romer’s understated but earth shattering work deserves
our attention and a Nobel prize in economics.”
— John Doerr, partner, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers
March 23, 2006
Tag-Team (Nailed Twice!)
Having been tagged by both David Maister and Robert Millard, the handwriting is on the wall: I can't hide, and I've never been one to run. So you are about to experience an extraordinarily atypical entry on "Adam Smith, Esq.," which is not now, and never has been, about me.
Four jobs I've had:
- caddy (one summer)
- research assistant (as a 3L) to constitutional law professor Paul Brest, later Dean of Stanford Law School
- founder and CEO of a dot-com (intended to bring the Fortune 1000 and the AmLaw 200 together for spontaneous and serendipitous "expertise discovery"—essentially meant as a massive online legal KM application)
- strategic and economic consultant to law firms
Four movies I can watch over and over
- The Godfather (I, II, & III)
- Star Wars
- The Hunt for Red October
- 2001: A Space Odyssey
Four TV shows I love to watch
- The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer (PBS)
- Charlie Rose (if and only if he's not interviewing movie celebrities)
- Monday Night Football
- NOVA
Four places I’ve been on vacation
- Bologna/Milan/Rome/Venice
- Florence/Siena/Assisi/Ravello
- Positano/Capri/Amalfi/Ravenna
- Palermo/Agrigento/Erice/Catania/Siracusa
Yes, you detect a pattern.
Four tunes that play through my head
- The Siegfried Idyll from Wagner's Ring Cycle
- Le Donne e Mobile from Verdi's Rigoletto
- "Private Dancer," Tina Turner
- "London Calling," The Clash
Four favorite dishes
- cheese, olives, bread, red wine: the Four Major Food Groups
- risotto
- home-made parmesan/rosemary/sun-dried tomato focaccia
- inky black coffee and an honest-to-God New York bagel with nova and a schmear
Four books I really love
- The Great Gatsby, F. Scott Fitzgerald
- The Selfish Gene, Richard Dawkins
- Harry Potter: All of it
- [An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of] The Wealth of Nations, Adam Smith (yes, seriously)
Four places I’d rather be
- London, Hong Kong, or Rome
- Running a full loop of Central Park
- Most any world-class university town: Ann Arbor, Cambridge, Palo Alto, Princeton
- Seated in the third row, center, of the balcony of the Metropolitan Opera as the house lights go down
But seriously, David M. nailed it: Home on the Upper West Side.
Four bloggers I’m tagging
And there you have this most out-of-the-ordinary entry on "Adam Smith, Esq."
February 8, 2006
"That Dapper Fellow"
Truth on the Market is also featuring "that dapper fellow," Adam Smith, as their favicon. But they use a different iteration than I do:
January 18, 2006
Your Money or Your Reputation: Adam Smith, the First Behavioral Economist?
Seventeen years before The Wealth of Nations (1776), Adam Smith published his Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), nowadays a relatively neglected work which, to my mind, is nearly as astute, deserves far greater current recognition, and which not-incidentally puts pad once and for all to any charge that Adam Smith was unsympathetic to human nature or cavalier about the consequences of his theories for individuals. Merely contemplate the book's very first sentence if you doubt me:
"How selfish soever man may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, except the pleasure of seeing it."One reviewer nicely summarized its relationship to Wealth of Nations as follows:
"To truly understand Adam Smith's economic masterpiece "The Wealth of Nations", one must understand its moral foundation. Without Smith's essential prequel, "The Theory of Moral Sentiments", the more famous "Wealth of Nations" can easily be misunderstood, twisted, or dismissed."
So, to today: Harvard Business School's Working Knowledge has a piece positing that the Theory of Moral Sentiments was the original intellectual precursor to what we all know today as Behavioral Economics. [The HBS WK article refers enticingly to the primary source, "Adam Smith, Behavioral Economist," published in the summer 2005 edition of The Journal of Economic Perspectives, but the troglodyte JEP keeps its online archives under severe lockdown—trust me, I tried.]
The premise of the HBS piece, "Adam Smith, Behavioral Economist" is that Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations, which Smith never sufficiently inter-connected during his own life, nevertheless together constitute the intellectual foundation of how human psychology (including incentives, preferences, risk-aversion, and the endless struggle between immediate and delayed gratification) affect how people behave in markets: In other words, Behavioral Economics.
"Smith's two main works—The Wealth of Nations (WN) and The Theory of Moral Sentiments (TMS)—show him to be a brilliant economist and arguably a brilliant psychologist, but he was never fully able to bring the economics and psychology together."
One of the primary arguments of TMS is that human behavior is driven by passions—fear, desire, and greed among them—but that these passions are moderated by an "impartial spectator" looking out for the individual's long-term interests. And there's apparently something to the theory: Using it, the Harvard professors designed a "commitment savings product" for banks in the Phillipines that required customers to sign a contract prohibiting them from withdrawing funds until a certain amount of time had elapsed or a level of principal value had been achieved. According to them, this "had a large and significant effect on clients' total savings," resulting in increased home purchases, educational investments, and small business-building.
But it's when we come to Smith's bedrock belief, intimated in the opening sentence above, in the importance of trust, concern for fairness, and reciprocity, that the linkage of human psychology to market functioning becomes most clear. Smith believed that those values become more, not less, important as markets evolve. For example, with many of the professions, most assuredly including our own, clients cannot monitor "quality" in real time—and the same goes for doctors, auditors, and financial advisors. So trust and reputation stand in where cold economic calculus fails.
Likewise with corporations: Shareholders must at a fundamental level trust management to operate in the shareholders' interest since the range of variables over which management has control or influence is far too vast to specify contractually (and such a hypothetical specification would also be obsolete the moment it was completed).
Finally, Smith recognized, and placed great value upon, "the aerial coin of praise," and social and professional status, as critical motivational ingredients. Reputation ("the aerial coin") is the flip-side of trust; one trusts those who have earned their blue-chip reputations. And Smith would have insisted on the most scrupulous care and feeding of reputation, if for no other reason than the dire consequences attendant upon its destruction.
More currently, consider this (emphasis supplied, hat tip to Larry Ribstein):
"The market is capable of levying harsh penalities [for financial malfeasance] on its own. Recent evidence comes from Karpoff, Lee and Martin, The Cost to Firms of Cooking the Books (July 25, 2005). Here’s the abstract:
"We examine the penalties imposed on all 585 firms that were targeted by SEC enforcement actions for financial misrepresentation from 1978-2002. Consistent with the view that penalties are small, monetary fines were imposed on only 7% of the firms. A larger fraction, 36%, faced class action lawsuits from investors. Overall, however, the penalties imposed on firms through the legal system appear to be small, as the unconditional mean total of all legal penalties is only $14.3 million per firm.
"The penalties imposed by the market, in contrast, are huge. Our point estimate of the reputational penalty - which we define as the expected loss in the present value of future cash flows due to higher contracting and financing costs - is over twelve times the sum of all penalties imposed through the legal and regulatory system.
"For each dollar that a firm misleadingly inflates its market value, on average, it loses this dollar when its misconduct is revealed, plus an additional $2.47. Of this additional loss, $0.18 is due to expected legal penalties and $2.29 is due to lost reputation. This evidence belies a widespread view that financial misrepresentation is disciplined lightly. To the contrary, reputational losses impose substantial penalties for cooking the books."
So next time you're cynically thinking that money is the only motivator, try putting a price on your reputation; Smith would have.
January 8, 2006
Blawg Review #39
"Adam Smith, Esq." is honored and delighted to host Blawg Review #39; I consider myself in excellent company given the distinguished and talented people who have hosted Blawg Review in the past.
This week we celebrate:
Epiphany: n. 1. From
the Greek epiphania "manifestation," often
referring to the appearance of a divine being. Christ's appearance
to Paul on the Damascus road was an epiphany. The word is used to describe
the first appearance of Christ to the Gentiles in the visit of the
Magi to the baby Jesus (Matthew 2:1-12), an event celebrated January
6.
2. Epiphany in fiction, when a character suddenly experiences a deep
realization about himself or herself; a truth which is grasped in an
ordinary rather than a melodramatic moment.
The most famous representation of "The Epiphany" in art history is doubtless Giotto's (more formally, Giotto di Bondone: Italian, Florentine, 1266/76–1337) from New York's own Metropolitan Museum of Art:

My wife, who majored in art history at Vassar, has indelibly memorized this educational little ditty placing Giotto in art-historical context:
"Giotto, Giotto, Giotto-Giotto: Renaissance He paints in the morning and he paints at night; If it's a Giotto it'll turn out right. Giotto, Giotto, Giotto- Giotto: Renaissance."
Of course, here in New York City we celebrate the end of the 12 days of Christmas with our own tradition: The annual rite of The Ceremony of the Mulching of the Christmas Trees, jointly supervised by the NYC Sanitation and Parks Departments:
Before we begin our cyberspatial tour, like all accomplished explorers, we need to be well-equipped. To that end I commend to you Google Pack, a handy-dandy Swiss Army-knife compilation of everything the Prepared Scout of virtual-space needs, from Adobe Acrobat and Firefox to anti-virus and anti-spyware armor.
Let the tour begin!
Alito Fireworks
"Adam Smith, Esq." is resolutely non-partisan and apolitical. That said, without question the best-quality daytime drama scheduled for this coming week will be the nomination hearings for Judge Samuel Alito to SCOTUS—they promise an extremely high entertainment-value quotient, and I for one intend to Tivo them in their entirety. But for commentary and observation, I'll turn to those who plow these fields for a living, starting with the newest addition to the Law.Com "Inside Opinions: Legal Blog Network," the consummately qualified Howard Bashman of How Appealing.
The "Epiphanic Moment" ("EM") from this post is Howard's intimate knowledge of the witnesses who will be testifying in favor of Alito this week: "I know about all of these judges as a result of having handled numerous appeals in front of the Third Circuit over nearly the past sixteen years and having clerked for a judge serving on the Third Circuit for two years before that. Here are my quick insights..."
Our friends at Law.Com have their comprehensive "A Field Guide to the Alito Confirmation Hearings." You were expecting, perhaps, a red hawk pair nesting above Fifth Avenue?
Meanwhile, over at the Electronic Privacy Information Center, they've a remarkably comprehensive complete copy of a conference report from the Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library at Princeton University—the conference in question taking up "The Boundaries of Privacy in American Society," chaired by none other than then-Princeton-student Samuel Alito, who was responsible for putting the conference together, doing the research behind it, and preparring the "remarkable summary that accompanies the final report." This should have the C-SPAN junkies going back to their Red Bull's for stamina.
NSA Surveillance Fireworks
Also on the late-breaking political newsfront, we have the story that our very own NSA ("No Such Agency") has developed an expertise in data-mining that Wal-Mart would envy, but rather than applying it to how our household purchases index on Crest and Pampers, they've applied it to determine how many degrees of separation lie between you and Osama.
Jay Leno has his own take on this revelation:
According to a new poll, President Bush's approval ratings are on the rise. A lot of these polls are phone polls and people were worried Bush is listening in.
Kierkegaard Lives, a new blog to me, provides a "wire-tapping link repository" aiming to constitute one-stop-shopping for digerati running down primary sources on this.
For the attention-span challenged, yesterday TalkLeft uncovered a Congressional Research Service report questioning the NSA/White House's authority. EM from the summary:
"The 44-page report said that Bush probably cannot claim the broad presidential powers he has relied upon as authority to order the secret monitoring of calls made by U.S. citizens since the fall of 2001."
For the record, I do not subscribe to the cynical view of this imbroglio that it's merely a matter of whose ox is being gored—that if you're an upstanding American citizen you have nothing to fear from the snoops, so what's your problem, buddy? Rather, I view the debate as the latest incarnation of the timeless, "no permanent solution" tension between human liberty and free and open societies, and the reality that "the Constitution is not a suicide pact."
Lawyers Behaving Badly
This topic can only be introduced by: "Where oh where to begin?!"
f/k/a reports on a lawyer who:
"... gets three months in jail for being one of the two major actors in a complicated scheme to steal millions of dollars [$25.6-million, in fact] from people he himself describes as "decent, hardworking people looking for an honest way to resolve their debt issues.""How is this possible? Maybe the judge was swayed by character witnesses, or the lawyer's own questionable character:
"Attorney Lisa B. Shelkrot came up with the usual defense gobbly- gook, including: "What stands out [in letters from prominent members of the community] is his selflessness and commitment to service." "It was a fear of destitution, not a high flying lifestyle ... that lead him to this. Sinnott had a "deeply and tragically" flawed personality."
My EM question to Ms. Shelkrot: Are you yourself buying that for a second?
And since when does being "flawed" exempt you from responsibility for the consequences of your premeditated actions over a period of years? We don't apply this standard in dealing with children or dogs, and it's not time to start with grown, bar-passing adults.More seriously, Jack Balkin asks whether it now "seemed as if there was no legal proposition, no matter how outlandish, that you couldn't get some prominent lawyer these days to defend." Answering his own question, he writes:
"Lawyers have always, to my knowledge, been willing to come up with clever and ingenious arguments for the interests they represent."But he's only warming up:
"Put another way, we have all known for many years that lawyers are rhetorical whores; their job is to confuse, obfuscate, and make unjust and illegal things seem perfectly just and legal, or, if they cannot quite manage that feat, to muddy up our convictions sufficiently that we conclude that it's a close case. There is nothing new about this.""Nothing new?" Meaning it's essentialy an ineradicable and hopeless condition? Well, not quite. EM moment in bold (my emphasis:
"Lest I be misunderstood, I do not mean to say that law and legal doctrine counts for nothing, and that lawyers have no independent role to play other than as political cheerleaders for one side or the other. Rather I mean to say that the law always needs help from other sources in political culture if it is to do its job appropriately. The rule of law, I would insist, is not a purely legal or professional ideal-- it is a political ideal."
TalkLeft decodes what motivates outstanding federal prosecutors to go to the defense side—and questions whether they ever really make the transition. "The real problem is most of these former high-level prosecutors can't make the mental shift. They don't have it in them." Or, as former Deputy Attorney General James Comey puts it in a quote so rich you couldn't make it up (EM in bold):
“You go from being paid to do the right thing every day, from having the freedom never to make an argument you don’t believe in, to being a defense attorney, where you are duty-bound to make the best argument you can,” he told the New York Law Journal. “I have a tremendous respect for people who do defense work, and it’s not lying, but in a private moment, sometimes, you say, ‘Geez, this is a bunch of baloney.’”
And you really anticipate even a soupcon of "zealous representation" on behalf of a criminal defendant from Mr. Comey? TalkLeft certainly doesn't: "Pathetic...irksome beyond description."
For a moment's worth of comic relief, the always-reliable Walter Olson at Overlawyered chronicles a Dallas restaurateur who sued the Dallas Morning News over a review of his restaurant, "Il Mulino"—specifically, so it would appear, over the newspaper critic's take on Il Mulino's bolognese and vodka sauce. I am pleased to be able to report that the matter has been settled without admission of much of anything, it seems, but with a promise of a second review from the newspaper. "And you're ugly," perhaps?
The serious message here is simply, Who comes off looking worse? The benighted restaurateur who exponentially increased circulation of the critical review by his action, or the lawyer who took good money from him to help?
Craig Williams, another Scottish lawyer with a penchant for economics, regales us at May It Please the Court with Major League Baseball's claim that it "owns" all baseball statistics. The party offending MLB's expansive notion of the territorial reach of its intellectual property is one CBC Distribution & Marketing, a fantasy baseball game operator—dependent for the reality of its fantasy upon real-world baseball statistics. EM of the post: "Next thing you know, they'll be charging the fans to quote statistics to one another."
Mauled Again kicks off 2006 with a confident prediction:
"The culture of corruption, of bribery, of putting one's own selfish interests above those of the public one is required to serve will also trigger yet another easy-to-predict Top Ten tax story of 2006. At least one politician, one celebrity, and one lawyer will run afoul of the tax law by failing to file a tax return or by failing to pay income taxes."
What's to be done? You might try starting young:
"It is a challenge getting across to law students the point that when they enter the profession, and even as law students, they are subject to a higher set of integrity standards than those that apply generally to citizens of the nation."
Put that on your refrigerator.
On a less consequential, but equally depressing, note, Matt Homann of "the [non]billable hour" reports seeing a serious-minded piece of advice that clients should not talk to their lawyers until the deal they're doing is completely worked out. What on earth would prompt such advice? "Our predominant business model"—the billable hour.
In contradistinction to the billable hour, Greatest American Lawyer advocates serious, candid discussions with clients about budgets. The goal? Try, "Truth."
Over at Houston's Clear Thinkers, Tom Kirkendall writes about "The High Price of Asserting Innocence," and sees a vicious double standard infecting the Enron prosecution, wherein the right to defend oneself has essentially been emasculated by trigger-happy prosecutors and the federal sentencing guidelines' emphasis on co-operation as a get-out-of-jail-free card:
"Last week, former Enron chief accountant Richard Causey pled guilty to a single count of securities fraud and agreed to a seven-year prison term after vigorously defending himself from multiple charges of business crimes for over two years. Had he elected to defend himself at trial against the charges and lost, he would have faced an effective life sentence."
Yet another triumph of the Law of Unintended Consequences; but lawyers created this injustice. Can't lawyers be expected to fix it?
Part of the problem may be that lawyers can't be expected to fix injustices if they simply can't be trusted in the first place. To that point, Dennis Kennedy recounts the "baffling" decision of the Florida Bar's Board of Governors to prohibit lawyers from looking at metadata—presumably on the principle that gentlemen don't read other gentlemen's mail. To my mind, the only conceivable rationale for such (a feckless) rule of "Enforced Ignorance" is that the children can't be trusted near the liquor cabinet.
Is there hope? Point of Law writes about "Merit-Based Judging" and urges all of us (is the MSM listening, here?) to get the notion out of our heads that judicial decision-making is a clone of the legislative process, where all that matters are results. Ted Frank comes out decisively in favor of hoping Alito will truly judge matters strictly on the merits, and even though Frank is confessedly pro-business, he argues correctly that "business is better off in the long run with a judge and judiciary that decides cases on the merits" rather than "a hack judge who makes his or her decisions based on the identity of the parties in the caption."
Wouldn't it be nice if a greater proportion of the American public (and again, the American media) understood that "decisions based on the identity of the parties" enjoys a one-for-one identity with being "a hack."
Finally, we can all breathe a sigh of relief—inbetween chuckles, anyway—at the extremely welcome news that The Bitch is Back.
Practice, Practice, Practice
Lest you begin to form the impression that lawyers never get any real work done, we have an eclectic roundup of practitioners opining on their specialties. I'm not sure any one of this exactly qualifies for an "EM," being, as they are, proudly technical and rational self-contained essays, you hey, you might learn something; I surely did.
- Ever wonder about the extraterritorial application of US Antitrust Laws? You understand, of course, that ever since Alcoa (1945), it's been settled that they do have some such reach. Law & Society sets us straight (and I'm personally a sucker for their banner image).
- Patent Baristas educates us on the USPTO's proposal
to limit continuations, which have
"become the current whipping boy." (Who knew?!) PB opines
that "this has not been thought through very well," and as part
of their argument to that effect notes (and trust me, I quote):
"Note that proposed Rule § 1.78(f)(2) provides that for applications that fall under set proposed § 1.78(f)(1) above, there will be a rebuttable presumption that the nonprovisional application contains at least one claim that is not patentably distinct from at least one of the claims in the one or more other pending or patented nonprovisional applications. In that case, [etc.]"
I'm willing to take them at their word. - Staying in IP-land for a moment, The Invent Blog notes that David Allen's "Getting Things Done" (a collection of techniques I heartily endorse), which relies upon tabbed folders for organization, wouldn't be possible without the handiwork of one James Newton Gunn, who in 1897 obtained a patent for tabbed folders and index cards. Respect your ancestors, I always say!
- My e-friend Ingo Forstenlechner has just completed his Ph.D.
thesis titled "Impact of Knowledge Management on Law Firm
Performance - An Investigation of Causality across Cultures" and
wants to let you know that you can get a copy directly
from him. I'm sure Joy
London already has hers. Here's an excerpt from Ingo's
abstract of the thesis:
"The set of cause and effect relationships at the heart of the [balanced] scorecard - referred to as the success map – is at the core of this research, which aims to investigate if the link between managing knowledge and financial performance really exists and – if it does – how it can be influenced." [And his conclusion?] [...] "This thesis provides the empirical evidence for a link between KM and organisational performance."
- Carolyn Elefant at My Shingle offers very practical advice (##'d 1 through 5, in fact) for people seeking contract work from local attorneys or solos.
- And last, both Carolyn and I contributed to the launch of Law.com's "Career Center" earlier last week.
And The Final Word Goes to The Economics of Law Firms
I hope you all saw that coming.
Patrick Lamb, at In Search of Perfect Client Service, essays upon "The Essence of Leadership." The first thing he does, with a hat tip to Tom Peters, is distinguish leadership from management: "Management has a lot to do with answers. Leadership is a function of questions. And the first question for a leader always is "what do we intend to be?""
Those of you who were comparative lit majors may be interested to know that I took off from the same Harvard Business School paper Patrick is launching from, in a post of my own, here.
The anonymous Wired GC kicks off the New Year by turning his thoughts to New Ventures, and to the pilot fish that invariably accompany them in schools, your friends the Venture Capitalists, and The Top 10 Lies of VC's as recounted by Guy Kawasaki, who's in a position to know. My personal favorite is #9 (EM included) :
"Do you know why we all know about Google's amazing return on investment? The same reason we all know about Michael Jordan: Googles and Michael Jordans hardly ever happen. If they were common, no one would write about them. If you scratch beneath the surface, venture capitalists want to invest in proven teams (eg., the founders of Cisco) with proven technology (eg., the basis of a Nobel Prize) in a proven market (eg., ecommerce). We are remarkably risk averse considering it's not even our money."
Gerry Riskin at Amazing Firms, Amazing Practices (who I know well, whom I hope to have breakfast with in New York this coming week, and who deprived the world of stand-up comedy of a potential ace when he stuck to law-land) turns the kleig lights on "old-fashioned bad management" at Dorsey & Whitney's London office, leading the en masse departure of 8 associates. What, Gerry asks rhetorically, does it cost to recruit 8 associates? And what firm would "dare subtract that number from the billing revenue of some maniac in order to determine compensation?" Another rhetorical question. But the EM is this: Thanks at least in fair measure to the blogosphere, dysfunctional people cannot remain anonymous.
Finally, the question you've all had in the backs of your minds, especially those of you contemplating hosting another Blawg Review of your own some day: Am I glad I did it?
Yes, I thoroughly enjoyed it! I had the chance to delve deeper into some old friends, to meet some new ones (as it were), and finally, to point you all towards two of my own post-children of the past week:
- Five Questions (Or Is It Only One?) For Your Firm in 2006, and
- Build on Your Strengths or Tackle Your Weaknesses?
It's good to be King For A Day. Still, I hope I've done justice to Blawg Review #38's 10 Resolutions for Better Blogging.
And to all a good night, and a most merry and enjoyable 12 Days of Christmas next year.
Blawg Review has information about next week's host, and instructions how to get your blawg posts reviewed in upcoming issues. Final Note: I'm also interviewed there.
December 16, 2005
Limits to Capitalism: The New York City Subways and When Public Benefits Private
Aside from law firms and the business thereof—my genuine professional passion—I must occasionally share a personal passion, but only if it touches upon economics. One personal passion is the almost unimaginable centrality of the subway system to New York City as it exists today.
Today's threatened subway strike in New York (which was averted by "stopping the clock" for four more days, at which point we'll be on the brink again barring a settlement), is such an occasion for breaking the rules about what you come to "Adam Smith, Esq." expecting.
What on earth do the subways have to do with economics and business? Plenty.
If you look at a map of downtown New York in 1900, before the subways were built, there were no skyscrapers. Look at the same map 10 years later (the first, primary, branch of the IRT opened in 1903, from City Hall to Harlem), and you will see a virtual curtain wall of skyscrapers down Wall Street and Broadway. Did engineering technology change? No—what changed was the ability of the subways—the physical infrastructure of the city—to deliver the throngs of office workers from Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx needed to make those skyscrapers economically viable.
The same is no less true today.
New York could not live without it.
Courtesy of the WSJ:
FAST MTA FACTS
• Have 343 routes, 8,259 train and subway cars, 4,895 buses, 2,058 miles of track, 2,967 miles of bus routes, 734 train stations, and 63,884 employees
• Give New Yorkers about 2.4 billion rides each year
• Carry roughly one in every three users of mass transit nationwide and two-thirds of rail riders.
• Serve 14.6 million people in New York City, Long Island, southeastern New York and Connecticut.
• Are used by four of every five rush-hour commuters in New York City.
• Had a 2004 operating budget of $8.0 billion
• Last went on strike in 1980, when they were out for 11 days
Source: MTA, Associated Press

September 26, 2005
There's a Reason I Named This Blog As I Did
Occasionally it's a worthy endeavor to pay a moment's tribute to the eminent Scot for whom this site is named, and in the on-line world there are few better starting points than The Adam Smith Institute (London). There you can find a highly abbreviated list of Adam Smith quotes, search the text of The Wealth of Nations, browse their very own blog, and even read a fascinating timeline of his life.
For example, did you know that among his contemporaries—many of them acquaintances if not friends—were:
- Sir Christopher Wren, Sir Isaac Newton, Edmund Burke, John Wesley, David Hume, Voltaire, Jonathan Swift, Jethro Tull, Alexander Pope, Benjamin Franklin (and all the American Founding Fathers, for that matter), Charles Louis de Montesquieu, William Pitt, Joseph Priestley, William Blake, Captain Cook, Sir William Blackstone, Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, James Watt, Jane Austen, Edward Gibbon, and Dr. Samuel Johnson; and noteworthy events during his lifetime included:
- The invention and subsequent refinement of the steam engine; the discovery of New South Wales; the American and French Revolutions; the founding of the British Museum, Covent Garden Opera, and the Royal Academy of Sciences; and publication of Blackstone's Commentaries and the first edition of The Encyclopedia Britannica.
Of more intellectual substance is a review by Leo Rosten of The Wealth of Nations, which begins as follows:
"It is a clumsy, sprawling, elephantine book. The facts are suffocating, the digressions interminable, the pace as maddening as the title is uninviting: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. But it is one of the towering achievements of the human mind: a masterwork of observation and analysis, of ingenious correlations, inspired theorizings, and the most persistent and powerful cerebration."
Alternatively, try a delightful 1994 "interview" with the master himself.
For the last word, see this.
Now get back to work.
May 21, 2005
Bruce Profiled on "LawCrossing"
The LawCrossing site just went live with a profile of me, written by the engaging reporter Regan Morris. Here's a nice sound-bite: "'I started out in stealth mode because there's always the dangerous possibility that you might not have anything to say.' ...It turns out MacEwen did have something to say."
Anyway, for a little bit more about how "Adam Smith, Esq." came to be, go read the whole thing.
May 18, 2005
"Courage," or Why Profits Really Do Matter More Than Anything
Rarely, if ever, do I link to The Wall Street Journal, on the premise that the overwhelming majority of you have already seen it, so why point to what's been in front of your face? But rules are made to be broken, so this morning I give you two WSJ links.
They have in common that they undergird the raison d'etre of this blog: To increase the revenues and profits of law firms. (Had you missed that?—sorry, sometimes it helps to state the obvious). More importantly, this is a "have no fear" post: Damn the Politically Correct Police, and stake your claim to superior financial results, unconflicted by duelling considerations (within, of course, the limits of law, ethics, and simple humanity).
The first WSJ link is to Alan Murray's brisk and refreshing reminder about what's wrong with corporations garbing themselves in the robes of "social responsibility:"
"What harm is there in companies taking more responsibility for social and environmental problems? Plenty, if you adhere to the theories of Adam Smith..."
Still have a soft spot in your heart (or head?) for global corporations voluntarily going "beyond compliance"—taking steps viewed in the wisdom of NGO's as beneficial to society albeit not required by law or regulations? Then I invite you to look at the 20th-Century's track record of creating wealth and alleviating poverty: Was it the indubitably well-intentioned socialist or heavy-handed paternalist "capitalist" countries that raised their citizens highest, or was it the more rough and tumble American model? And if that seems old news, look at what China has accomplished in the short years of the 21st-Century, by betraying communist principles (economically, if not yet politically), as opposed to, say, the previous 50 years being more or less true to communist principles.
But relatively unfettered capitalism can be hard, can it not, particularly on those at the bottom of the ladder? Hasn't the MSM lately been full of articles undermining the American Dream's notion of upward mobility based on drive and determination? It's hard for the least fortunate to get a leg up! Well, as they say, it depends on what the meaning of "hard" is.
Alan Reynolds succinctly points out the statistical and methodological flaws in the latest anti-Dream studies: "It helps to focus on a few reasons why some people earn more than others -- they work harder, and have more experience and/or more schooling."
- households in which two people work earn five times as much as households in which no one works
- households in which one person works full-time earn more than twice as much as those in which someone works part-time
- college graduates earn three times as much as high school dropouts
- experienced people (45-54) earn more than twice as much as those starting out (under 24)
- there are two workers per household in the top fifth of the income distribution, less than one worker in the bottom fifth
Still protesting? Aren't the rich getting richer, etc.? Yes, they are, and the shocking fact is:
"Since the Census Bureau overhauled the way it counts income in 1993-94 (making the figures incomparable with prior years), the share of income earned by the top fifth rose to 49.8% in 2000-03 from 49% in 1993-94."
Back to Adam Smith. The title of his most famous book reads in full: "An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations." In other words, he was concerned with the creation of wealth, and was at least in most of his published writings an agnostic as to how it was spent. (Only after his death was it learned he had, in fact, donated a large proportion of his income to charitable causes.) The first order of business must always be to generate wealth; the distribution of it comes later.
It is only fitting to conclude with an excerpt from Smith himself (Wealth of Nations, Modern Library edition [1994], Book I, Chapter 1, pp. 12-13), which resounds with truth and, to our 21st-Century ears, that damnable political incorrectness. But ask yourself this: Is it preferable to grant people the power and liberty to seek self-enrichment, or to presume one knows their best interests and can provide it for them?:
"It is the great multiplication of the productions of all the different arts, in consequence of the division of labour, which occasions, in a well-governed society, that universal opulence which extends itself to the lowest ranks of the people. [...]
"Compared, indeed, with the more extravagant luxury of the great, [a day labourer's] accommodation must no doubt appear extremely simple and easy; and yet it may be true, perhaps, that the accommodation of a European prince does not always so much exceed that of an industrious and frugal peasant, as the accommodation of the latter exceeds that of many a [tribal] king, the absolute master of the lives and liberties of ten thousand naked savages."
May 4, 2005
Editorial Time-Out: A Word In Favor of Legal Aid Donations
Pro bono work, services or cash donated to legal aid, and charitable contributions by law firms in general have received scant attention at "Adam Smith, Esq.", a shortcoming I hereby resolve to remedy, if for no other reason than that the actual Adam Smith was found only upon his death to have donated a substantial proportion of his income to charity. (And you thought capitalism has no place for eleemosynary activities—think again. Capitalism is about how one generates wealth, not so much about how one spends it. But that is a topic for another day.)
Comes word that Allen & Overy will now be donating the "excess" interest it earns on client's escrowed funds to legal aid centers in the UK that offer counseling on issues such as housing, family law, and employment, and further that it has written a letter to Tony Blair encouraging the government to increase legal aid funding. Needless to add, A&O is encouraging other Magic Circle firms to do the same, and even going so far as to say that "any firm with more than 20 partners" should do the same.
Back up for a second: What is this "excess" interest, again? We all know law firms hold clients' funds for different periods of time and for a variety of purposes; A&O, like any firm that has graduated beyond doing its accounts at the kitchen table, aggregates all those funds and holds them in a single bank account, on which it has negotiated a higher interest rate than any one of the clients alone could obtain by virtue of the size of the account. The "excess" interest, then, is the margin A&O earns over what each client alone could earn; the client's share is obviously returned to the client, but in the past A&O (and everyone else) had simply pocketed the excess—estimated to total around £200,000 over three years. Now that amount will be going to legal aid.
So what? Editorial time, people: It is occasionally a proper role for MSM and bloggers alike to champion good citizenship among their readers, and this is such an occasion. (Don't worry; they will remain few and far between on "Adam Smith, Esq."!) Just as The American Lawyer tries to do with its "A-List" giving ranked firms credit for their commitment to pro bono work, I want to urge AmLaw 100 firms to take a page from A&O's book and contribute comparable funds to legal aid on this side of the Atlantic. £200,000 is estimated to be about four months' profits for a single A&O partner. Is that honestly too much to ask, from those to whom so munificently much has been given?
January 12, 2005
"Worldly" Philosophers? Yes.
The world has just learned that Robert Heilbroner, author of the justly famous and best-selling The Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times, and Ideas of the Great Economic Thinkers, first published in 1953 and still in print, died here in Manhattan last week at age 85. "Worldly Philosophers," which I read as a teenager and which cemented my fascination with economics, profiles, among others, Adam Smith, Karl Marx, David Ricardo, and Joseph Schumpeter, but the operative word here is "worldly"—what Heilbroner cares about is the impact these men's thoughts have on our everyday lives. Those he profiles thought large thoughts on a large stage, whereas, to me, far too many of today's economists think crabbed and impoverished thoughts on an intensely mathematically-driven stage:
"The worldly philosophers," Dr. Heilbroner said in a 1999 interview, "thought their task was to model all the complexities of an economic system - the political, the sociological, the psychological, the moral, the historical. And modern economists, au contraire, do not want so complex a vision."If you haven't read it, a word of advice: Do.
December 9, 2004
Will the Real Adam Smith Please Stand Up?
Adam Smith's thought (the real Adam Smith, that is) has been famously characterized by the economist George Stigler as a "stupendous palace erected upon the granite of self-interest." I have long labeled this a "mischaracterization," and I am now pleased to report that I am in good company.
To be sure, "self-interest" is a real phenomenon, albeit a rather humdrum one. Of far greater significance to Smith's thought, and his intellectual legacy, was his bedrock—and spectacularly uncommon at the time—belief that individuals, even the impoverished and unschooled, knew and understood their own best interests far more keenly than the wise and virtuous classes that were then readily perceived as their betters.
This core faith in the judgment of every individual is the foundation upon which Smith rests his aversion to heavy-handed governmental intervention in the economy: It is not (just) a "positive" argument Smith is making against excessive government involvement (i.e., the argument that the government tends to get it wrong, and that its interventions have pernicious unintended consequences); rather, it is primarily a "normative" argument (namely that the intelligence and autonomy of each individual should be minimally interfered with, and then only for the most compelling reasons and where there are no meaningful "less intrusive" alternatives).
In his crystal-clear but inimitable prose:
"It is the highest impertinence and presumption... in kings and ministers, to pretend to watch over the oeconomy of private people, and to restrain their expence either by sumptuary laws, or by prohibiting the importation of foreign luxuries. They are themselves always, and without any exception, the greatest spendthrifts in the society. Let them look well after their own expence, and they may safely trust private people with theirs."
Need I add that these observations are of wide applicability today? (Can anyone say, "school vouchers," where the wise and virtuous classes would deny poor parents the educational choice they themselves enjoy for their privileged children?)
But enough editorializing for this quarter; in case you hadn't picked up on it, I am a profound and enthusiastic admirer of the original AS.
And yes, I do believe he'd have his own blog today.
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