Hildebrandt International and The Citigroup Private Bank
Law Firm Group are pleased to present this 2006 Client
Advisory highlighting the trends that we perceived in the
legal market in 2005 as well as the trends that we believe
will impact the market in 2006.
[Highlights by Bruce MacEwen of "Adam Smith,
Esq." in blue text.]
Overview
The year 2005 proved to be a good year financially for the
legal industry but fell short of the revenue and profitability
growth rates of the last five years. According to Citigroup
data from 146 US law firms, the compound annual growth rates
of revenue and profits per equity partner for the 2000-2004
period were 10.8 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively. From
the data now available, it appears that 2005 growth levels
were lower.
That said, the overall levels of revenue and profits in
2005 still increased substantially over 2004. Those
increases were driven largely by a rebound in corporate and
M&A practices - particularly during the fourth quarter of
the year - and by more overall stability in transactional work
than was the case in 2004. Litigation practices also continued
strong throughout the year, though without significant growth
over 2004 levels.
Merger and consolidation activity among US firms continued
at a healthy pace in 2005, while the internal growth of firms,
though higher than the prior year, continued to be somewhat
slow. While the total number of lawyers in large firms grew by
4.4 percent last year, that increase was well below the high
growth rate of 8.2 percent seen in 2001. Moreover, much of the
growth in total numbers was attributable to the continuing
pace of mergers and lateral acquisitions.
The pace of merger and consolidation activity during the
past year was symptomatic of the continuing segmentation of
the legal market as the economic gap between the most
profitable firms and those in the next tier continued to grow
- both nationally and regionally. Indeed, Citigroup analysis
shows that the profits per equity partner of the 30 most
profitable firms in the country are now more than double that
of other firms, and the gap is widening.
In the sections that follow, we have highlighted the trends
that characterized the legal market in 2005. We have
also described our projections for the current year, both
financial and otherwise, and offered some recommendations for
firms to consider in positioning themselves for competitive
advantage in the year ahead.
Economic Performance
The economic performance of US law firms was solid in 2005,
although growth in revenues and profits slowed somewhat,
margins narrowed slightly, and productivity was flat to 2004.
As noted above, we expect that - when all of the figures are
in - the rates of growth in both revenue and profits per
equity partner will be below the compound annual growth rates
of 10.8 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, achieved by US
law firms during the preceding five-year period (2000-2004).
Despite these results, there was a noticeable uptick in
activity in the second half of the year (and particularly in
the fourth quarter), a trend that augurs well for the start of
2006 and perhaps for the full year.
For most US firms, the growth during the past year was
driven by a resurgence in corporate and transactional work,
augmented by continuing strong litigation activity. In many
firms - particularly in New York - there was also a strong
upswing in M&A work.[3] Although overall activity for many
firms was slower earlier in the year than expected, an upsurge
in the fourth quarter assured a strong finish for most.
Moreover, the growth in corporate and transactional work in
the US was mirrored internationally. In the UK, Continental
Europe, and Asia, traditional corporate and finance practices
during 2005 recovered from the doldrums of the previous two or
three years and came back much stronger than expected.
Overall, during 2005, large law firms in the US grew
internally (in terms of the total number of lawyers) by 4.4
percent.[4] This represented an increase over the growth rate
of 1.5 percent in 2004, which was the lowest since 1994.
However, it was well short of the 8.2 percent growth rate
recorded in 2001. Because the growth in total billable hours
during the year lagged the growth in headcount, the overall
rise in headcount actually caused productivity to slow and
dampened growth in both revenues and profits per partner for
the year.
Paralleling the relatively modest growth in overall lawyer
headcount, the slowdown that we have seen over the past couple
of years in the growth of the ranks of equity partners also
continued in 2005. While the total number of partners in large
law firms increased by 4.6 percent in 2005 (up somewhat from
the 4.2 percent increase the preceding year), most of this
growth was in the non-equity partner ranks. Indeed, the number
of new equity partners increased by only 3.9 percent, compared
to a 9.2 percent increase among non-equity.
Today, among the
largest firms, the non-equity ranks constitute about
one-quarter of all partners (a total of 10,314 non-equity
and 30,278 equity partners). Since, in most
firms, profitability is highly correlated to equity partner
productivity, it is not likely that this trend will be
reversed in the foreseeable future.
Notwithstanding the solid economic performance of most
firms, there were signs in 2005 of growing pressures on the
bottom line, pressures that could make it increasingly
difficult for firms to achieve double digit growth in profits
per equity partner during 2006. One such warning sign,
according to Citigroup, is declining realization rates among
the 30 most profitable firms in the country and relatively
flat realization rates among other firms, a trend that may
signal increasing discounts in response to client pressures
or, in some instances, clients insisting upon multiple-year
rate schedules. From our conversations with firms across the
country, we believe that client pressures for discounts are
increasing.
At the same time, the rate of growth in law firm expenses
in 2005 continued at about the same level as in 2004. As
many firms face significant technology upgrades, increasing
occupancy expenses, and perhaps higher interest rates on
borrowings, there is little reason to think that upward
pressure on firm expense budgets will not continue. The one
potential bright spot on the expense side had been associate
salaries - where most firms have for the past couple of years
resisted significant structural changes. There is now,
however, ample evidence that law firms may once again be
ratcheting up associate salary scales, in part in response to
competitive hiring pressures from investment bankers and
consulting firms. Recent associate salary increases in both
Los Angeles and New York tend to confirm this trend. Although
some firms are now moving toward compensation systems that
de-emphasize base salaries in favor of larger incentivebased
bonus payments (a salutary move in our judgment), the
pressures to increase overall associate compensation levels in
2006 are likely to contribute to a higher growth rate in
expenses during the year.
Looking ahead to 2006, we believe that law firm revenues
and profits per equity partner will grow at about the same
pace as in 2005. Although firms will continue to resist
significant growth in lawyer headcount and will continue to
manage their expense budgets carefully, we believe that
growing pressures for discounts, coupled with increases in
"big ticket" expense items, are likely to limit both revenue
growth and improvements in profitability. Although the
resurgence of M&A activity may boost premium fees for some
firms, we forecast that revenues overall will grow at slightly
under 10 percent in 2006 and that overall profitability will
grow by around 10 percent.
Growth and Consolidation [5]
Law firm merger activity remained strong in 2005 with 49
completed mergers and acquisitions involving US law firms, up
slightly from 47 in 2004. The key trend relative to 2004 was
that the average size of mergers increased, with the average
size of the smaller or acquired firm growing from 30 lawyers
in 2004 to 67 in 2005.
The largest merger of 2005 was the combination of DLA,
Piper Rudnick, and Gray Cary Ware & Freidenrich, a
transaction that created a transatlantic firm of some 3,000
lawyers. The second largest merger was the combination of
Pillsbury Winthrop and Shaw Pittman, a deal resulting in a
firm of about 900 lawyers. Rounding out the top mergers were
the combinations of Edwards & Angell with Palmer &
Dodge; Squire Sanders & Dempsey with Steel Hector &
Davis; Ropes & Gray with Fish & Neave; and Kirkpatrick
& Lockhart with Nicholson Graham & Jones.
Domestically, New York and California remained the
strongest inbound markets for mergers during 2005. In
New York City, there were a total of 8 mergers, the largest
involving Ropes & Gray and the IP firm of Fish &
Neave. California had 6 mergers, all involving out-of-state
firms entering or expanding in the market, and all but one of
these transactions were focused in Northern California.
There were 4 law firm dissolutions in 2005, about the same
as the 5 that occurred in 2004 but significantly fewer than
the 13 in 2003. The most prominent firms that dissolved this
past year were New York-based Coudert Brothers (a firm founded
in 1853) and Boston-based Testa, Hurwitz & Thibeault (a
firm founded in 1973).
The past year also saw the significant expansion of US law
firms through the opening of new branch offices. There
were a total of 66 branch office openings in 2005, up
substantially from the 24 reported in 2004. Firms announced
the opening of new branches in 22 states, with the highest
concentration being in New York (10 new offices), followed by
Texas (7), and Illinois (6). California, Pennsylvania, and the
District of Columbia had 5 new offices each.
Reflected in part by these branch office statistics,
lateral acquisitions of individual partners, groups of
partners, and (in some cases) whole practice groups by one
firm from another continued unabated as in prior years. If any
pattern was evident in this constant churning of the lateral
market, it appeared to be that the larger national firms are
increasingly "cherry picking" talent from everyone else,
including particularly from regional and mid-sized firms that
may find it increasingly difficult to compete - not only in
terms of compensation but also in terms of their client bases
and support systems.
These patterns also suggest another reality that continued
to emerge in 2005: the segmentation of the US legal market has
continued and is accelerating. This fact is particularly
evident in the widening gap between the most profitable firms
in the country and the next tier of firms below them. As
previously noted, Citigroup analysis shows that the profits
per equity partner of the 30 most profitable firms in the US
are more than double those of other firms. Hildebrandt
research has shown a similar pattern, though with somewhat
narrower gaps, in many of the country's major regional
markets. These significant and widening gaps are driven by the
top firms exhibiting strong discipline in managing equity
partner growth, working harder than others (particularly at
the equity partner level), and building their leverage and
rate advantages by focusing on high value added work.
What all this
means in reality is that firms that have not already
made it "to the top" - economically speaking - are
highly unlikely to do so. The economic gap is simply too wide
and is increasing too rapidly for most firms to be able to
close it. In our view, many firms continue to set unrealistic
long-term economic goals for themselves that simply cannot be
achieved and that result in discontent among their partners
when they are missed. Firms would be well advised to do a
better and more candid job of examining their market positions
- given their core practices and geographic locations - and
setting reasonable targets to get them to the top of the
market niche that makes sense for them. There is an economic
ladder in the legal market that has many rungs; finding the
right one for a particular firm requires strategic focus and a
healthy doses of realism.
We expect that merger activity will continue in 2006 at
about the same level as in 2005, and we expect that last
year's trend toward larger mergers will also continue. Indeed,
by year-end 2005, twelve mergers had already been announced to
become effective during the first quarter of 2006, including
the combination of Bingham McCutchen with Swidler Berlin and
the merger of Orrick Herrington & Sutcliffe with the Paris
firm Rambaud Martel.
Global Expansion[6]
The year 2005 saw an acceleration in the opening of
overseas offices by US and UK law firms. There were a total of
57 new international offices opened in 21 countries during the
year, a significant increase over the 39 reported in 2004. In
addition, there were fewer international office closings
reported in 2005 - 8 as compared to 12 during 2004. For the
second year in a row, more firms opened offices in China than
in any other foreign country. Firms opened 14 new offices
there in 2005 (3 in Hong Kong and 11 on the Mainland) as
compared to a total of 11 in 2004. Of the new Mainland
offices, most were in Shanghai.
Apart from China, the most popular new foreign office
location was Germany (with 7 new offices), followed by the
United Arab Emirates (with 6), and Russia (with 5). Other
destinations with at least 3 new offices each included Italy,
Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK. Of the 8 foreign office
closings, 2 were in the Czech Republic, 2 were in Hong Kong,
and there was one each in Azerbaijan, Hungary, Italy, and the
UK.
Notwithstanding the popularity of China as a location for
new offices in 2005, the commitment of law firms to the
Chinese market - or even to Asia - remained substantially less
than their commitment in Europe. During the past year, London
continued to have the largest number of lawyers employed by US
firms - some 3,618 among the NLJ 250 firms - followed by Paris
with 1,117. Of the top 10 foreign cities for the NLJ 250 firms
in 2005, the only non-European locations were Hong Kong (with
706 lawyers) and Tokyo (with 471).
To keep this activity in perspective, it is important to
note that the total number of firms with foreign offices has
not changed significantly over the past several years. In
1995, among the 250 largest law firms in the US, 102 had
international offices - a significant increase from 54 in
1985. However, by 2005, that number had only increased to 105
(and in fact had declined from 109 the previous year). Those
numbers, however, mask what has been a significant increase in
transnational activity over the same period. In 2005, NLJ 250
firms had 533 international offices, a 9 percent increase from
the 487 reported in 2004 and a 54 percent increase over the
346 reported in 1995. Similarly, in terms of the number of
lawyers working in the international offices of NLJ 250 firms,
there was a 19 percent increase last year (from 10,498 in 2004
to 12,460 in 2005), and the 2005 figure represented a 300
percent increase from 1995 (when there were 3,109 such
foreign-based lawyers).
In addition to the new office openings described above,
there were a significant number of US firms involved in
cross-border mergers in 2005. As noted above, the largest were
the combinations of Piper Rudnick Gray Cary with London-based
DLA, and Kirkpatrick & Lockhart with London-based
Nicholson Graham & Jones. Later in the year, DLA Piper
Rudnick Gray Cary acquired the Russian and CIS practice of
Ernst & Young, Linklaters combined with the Japanese firm
Mitsui Yasuda Wani & Maeda, Cozen O'Connor merged with
Toronto's Poss & Halfnight, Howrey Simon Arnold &
White merged with the Paris IP boutique Cabinet Couste &
Couste, Paul Hastings Janofsky & Walker acquired the Taiyo
Law Office in Japan, and Squire Sanders & Dempsey combined
with Warsaw's Wiater Law Office. And several firms acquired
partners and practices throughout the world from the breakup
of Coudert Brothers, most notably Orrick, Herrington &
Sutcliffe and DLA Piper Rudnick Gray Cary in Asia.
It seems quite likely that the global expansion of US and
UK law firms will continue apace in 2006, and it is also
likely that China will continue to be a market of significant
interest. That said, the primary international focus for both
US and UK firms will continue to be Europe for the foreseeable
future.
Of course, the most important question is whether firms are
making money through their international expansion strategies.
The answer to that question is difficult to get your arms
around because firms account for their foreign operations in
many different ways. That said, we are somewhat suspicious of
the profitability of some of the recent growth we have seen in
global markets (especially in Asia) and believe that there may
well be some fallout for firms that entered international
markets with ill-conceived strategies.
Performance of Mid-Sized Firms
As in past years, the trends that were evident in the legal
market in 2005 posed special challenges for so-called
mid-sized firms.[7] Although many such firms achieved strong
economic results during the year, competitive pressures
continued to ratchet up on many fronts. While there is no
absolute correlation between size and rofitability, it
appears to be increasingly true that firms
normally have to hit a certain "critical mass" in order to be competitive for
most types of work from large corporate clients. A good
example relates to global capabilities. Five years ago, most
corporate general counsels were not particularly focused on
the ability of a given firm to serve their needs on a global
basis. Today, that attitude has changed dramatically, a change
that undoubtedly reflects the increasing globalization of the
business of clients themselves.
Mid-sized firms also face increasing challenges in
recruiting and retaining top talent. While some such firms
have been the beneficiaries of decisions by larger firms to
spin off certain practices, many find themselves hard pressed
to compete in the talent wars - in terms of compensation,
breadth of client bases, support systems, etc. For mid-sized
firms located in cities or regions with relatively stagnant
economies, growth comes only by "stealing market share" from
competitor firms, a strategy that in turn creates additional
downward pressures on pricing and overall firm
economics.
This is not to suggest that mid-sized firms cannot be
profitable or successful. Indeed, there are many such firms
around the country that are both - some of them in the ranks
of the best and most profitable firms in the US.[8] In
our experience, the mid-sized firms that have been most
successful are those that have focused strategically on
specific practices or categories of clients where they could
be most economically competitive, even against large national
law firms. For some, that has meant focusing on mid-sized
companies or start-up ventures; for others, it has involved
developing niche specialties or practices requiring special
"local" knowledge. For still others, strategic focus has meant
"going regional" - i.e., expanding (usually through merger or
acquisition) to serve an entire geographic market. Of the 49
completed law firm mergers last year, 23 (or some 47 percent)
were between firms with primary offices located in the same or
adjoining states. Likewise, of the 66 branch offices opened by
US firms in 2005, there were 28 (or some 42 percent) opened in
the same state as the firm's primary office or in an adjoining
state.[9] The point is that, while size matters to some
extent, it need not be a deciding factor in a firm's success.
Far more important is the issue of strategic focus.
Client Demands and Expectations[10]
Legal expenditures by US corporations - particularly larger
companies - continued to grow during 2005, increasing by about
6 percent over 2004. (This was the same percentage of increase
as during the preceding year.) Total legal spending by
companies as a percent of their US revenues grew during 2005
to 0.48 percent, the highest level in the past five years. Of
the average total legal spend per company, about 39 percent
was spent on inside lawyers and 61 percent on outside legal
resources, a split that has remained fairly constant since the
late 1990s.
One clear trend
in 2005 involved continuing "convergence"
practices among corporate general counsels - i.e., efforts to
reduce the number of outside firms with whom they do business.
There was an overall decrease in the average number of law
firms used by corporate clients, as well as a concomitant
increase in the percent of total outside counsel costs
accounted for by the top billing law firms. Among the 140
companies surveyed in the Hildebrandt 2005 Law Department
Survey, the median number of outside law firms paid was 125,
the median number of law firms accounting for 75 percent of
total outside counsel costs was 12, and the median percent of
total outside counsel costs accounted for by the top billing
law firm was 22 percent. At the same time, the median average
hourly rate paid to a company's top billing firms increased by
approximately 7 percent - up to $325 per hour.
Looking forward to 2006, we believe that convergence
practices will continue. Indeed, 60 percent of corporate
counsel surveyed by Hildebrandt indicated that they are
currently going through a convergence process. The rising cost
of legal services as a percentage of company revenues will
also keep pressure on corporate general counsels to find new
ways of controlling costs and to demonstrate their value to
their companies.
As noted previously, we are already seeing evidence of
increased fee discounts being offered by firms to large
clients - even in the New York market. We believe that such
discounting will continue, and perhaps even deepen, in 2006.
This is even more likely in the growing number of companies
that have placed the purchase of legal services under the
overall control of their corporate procurement departments.
Couple all of this with the "disintermediation" caused by
improving technology - a phenomenon that has contributed to
the ongoing "commoditization" of many areas of legal practice
- and with the growing competence and sophistication of
in-house counsel, and you have pressures on law firm
profitability that could well escalate in 2006. While we
expect overall demand for outside legal services to remain
high during the coming year, these factors could well combine
to dampen growth rates in many firms.
Looking at the management of corporate law departments in
the coming year, we believe (as suggested above) that general
counsels will continue to focus on cost reduction strategies.
This will be particularly true as legal functions continue to
be "de-mystified," and law departments begin to experience the
same type of corporate controls and budget constraints imposed
on other "business units." Beyond that, globalization will
continue to be a challenge as companies face the complex task
of managing legal issues on a worldwide basis including,
incidentally, worldwide litigation. Just as in law firms,
people issues will also continue to be a challenge for many
corporate law departments, with professional development and
career track questions being at the top of the list.
Firm Structure and Operations
There were a number of interesting developments during the
past year relating to the structure and internal operations of
law firms that we believe will continue to be important during
2006. These include (i) a significant shift in staffing
patterns related to the use of "contract" or other temporary
lawyers; (ii) a visible decline in morale and lack of
confidence in leadership in many firms; (iii) a growing gap
between the interests and expectations of middle-aged and
older partners and younger lawyers; (iv) a growing interest in
outsourcing as a means of controlling costs; and (v) the
continuing saga of the so-called "Tesco Law" in the UK.
(i) Use of Contract Lawyers. Over
the past few years, there has been a quiet revolution
in the staffing patterns of many large law firms.
In a growing effort to control costs and to avoid
setting hiring goals for associates to meet peak
work needs, an increasing number of firms have
turned to so-called "contract" lawyers - i.e.,
lawyers hired for a specific case or project or to meet the
"peak demand" needs in a particular practice but who have no
expectation of permanent employment with the firm. In recent
years, the numbers of such contract lawyers mployed by
large firms has increased dramatically, though the rate of
growth slowed somewhat in 2005. During the past year, the
number of contract lawyers in large firms grew 11 percent
(to a total of 2,432).[11] This growth rate was
substantially less than the 55 percent growth rate seen in
2004, but was still a healthy increase. It is no doubt a
harbinger of things to come. Indeed, of the 147 firms
responding to The American Lawyer's Am Law 200
Survey in 2005,[12] some 77 percent said they are currently
using contract lawyers or plan to do so. This finding was
confirmed more recently in a survey (in January 2006) by
Hildebrandt of 20 of the country's largest law firms in
which 16 (or 80 percent) indicated that they are currently
using contract lawyers.
Such widespread use of contract
lawyers - perhaps driven in part by steadily growing
litigation practices in many firms - may be signaling
a future fundamental shift in the structure of
large law firms. Increasing use of temporary professionals
may mean an overall downsizing of the permanent
lawyer ranks in many firms - a trend that we may
already be seeing in the modest growth in permanent lawyer
headcounts over the past couple of years. Indeed, during
2005, the number of counsel, senior counsel, staff
attorneys, and "other" non-partner, non-associate
lawyers in large law firms actually declined by 1
percent (down to a total of 10,749).[13] Undoubtedly the
trend makes good economic sense for most firms, allowing a
much more efficient use of resources and avoiding the
perennial problem of over staffing to meet the needs of a
particular case or client.
The use of contract lawyers is not free of problems
however. Supervision of large numbers of "temporary"
employees requires fairly sophisticated management
structures, and firms are well advised to manage the risks
associated with such professionals very carefully. Such risk
management should include particular attention to screening
for imputed conflicts, providing adequate training and
direct supervision, taking steps to ensure confidentiality,
advising clients of the use of such lawyers, and structuring
fair and ethical fee arrangements to cover their
services.
(ii) Morale and Confidence Issues.
During the past
year, Hildebrandt consultants came across a number
of firms that were doing quite well financially, but
on many other measures (partner morale, internal trust,
teamwork) they were failing and appeared very fragile. In a number of cases, Hildebrandt became
involved because firm management perceived their firms'
fragile condition, though they often didn't understand it
given their economic success. Perhaps this is just a case of
"a rising tide lifting all boats, even the leaky ones on a
temporary basis," but there have been disturbing signs that
a number of well-performing firms may be more fragile than
they appear on the surface.
A couple of years ago, Hildebrandt undertook a study of
law firm dissolutions over a ten-year period. One of the
conclusions of that study, somewhat surprisingly, was that
most firms that dissolve
do so in a year when their revenues are at an all-time
high. The experience of Citigroup supports this conclusion
- a firm's financial performance is a "lagging" (not a "leading") indicator of a
firm's overall health. The truth is that most law firm
dissolutions are generally not financially motivated but
rather are caused by a collapse of partner confidence. And
that fact supports the oft-repeated adage that "most law
firms are only two or three partners away from a
dissolution" - at least if the right two or three partners
leave and express doubts about the ongoing viability of the
firm as they depart.
What all this suggests - and we believe that it is a more
important point than ever given the current highly
competitive legal environment - is that law firm leaders
cannot afford to assume that good financial performance is
all that matters. Social scientists
have known for some time that motivating people isn't
primarily about money. Rather, it's about vision and
purpose, giving people the opportunity to do interesting
work in an environment that supports and encourages
them and allows them to feel a sense of real accomplishment.
It is, in other words, about the "people
stuff." Law firm leaders - even leaders of economically
successful firms - ignore these realities at their
peril.
(iii) The Generation Gap. The National Law
Journal recently reported that one of the most frequent
concerns voiced by law firm leaders responding to the 2005
Am Law 200 Survey was "their failure to connect with a new
generation of lawyers."[14] This is consistent with our own
experience. It seems that there is hardly a gathering of
managing partners these days where someone is not
complaining about the expectations or motivations of "Gen Y"
associates.
In fact, there are significant differences in the
interests and expectations of "Gen Y" associates from "Gen
Xers," and from "Baby Boomers." For one thing, most young
associates have no real expectation of remaining in their
firms for their entire careers. They are simply not
motivated by the prospects of "catching the brass ring" of
partnership in the same way as their older colleagues were.
Instead, they expect to have several jobs - and perhaps more
than one career - during their lifetimes. The implicit
bargain they have with their law firms is thus quite
different from the traditional one of "work hard and have a
shot at partner." Rather, they see the bargain as "I'll work
hard, but what I want in return is good training and
experience so that I will be prepared for my next job,
whatever it is."
As firms have come to terms with this new reality, they
have begun to take very seriously the need to plan and
implement comprehensive training and professional
development programs - programs focusing on leadership and
personal development as well as on substantive (CLE type)
legal issues. Within the past couple of years, a number of
firms have announced ambitious programs along these lines,
including some planned and implemented in partnership with
business schools or other organizations. We believe that to
compete effectively in the intensifying war for talent,
every firm will have to become increasingly focused on its
professional development offerings.
(iv) Outsourcing. The past year saw a continuing
interest by law firms in "outsourcing" as a means of
controlling costs. In some firms, this has taken the form of
"in-house outsourcing" through the relocation of various
back office and support services to lower cost locations.
(Good examples are the operational support center created by
Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe in Wheeling, West
Virginia, and the global operations center established by
Baker & McKenzie in the Philippines.) In other cases,
firms have outsourced functions to external vendors,
sometimes domestically but often off-shore. Although some
firms have expressed reservations about outsourcing to
off-shore locations, we believe that, overall, outsourcing
will continue to grow as an attractive method for law firm
cost containment. The cost savings are simply too compelling
to be ignored. Moreover, we have now begun to see some
examples of firms externally outsourcing limited types of
legal research and analysis - a development that goes well
beyond outsourcing of back office or support services.
Clearly, outsourcing is a trend to watch for the future.
(v) The "Tesco Law."
Late in 2005, the UK moved closer to a radical reform of
the legal profession as the government published full
details of its plans for the so-called "Tesco Law." That
proposal, which would set up a new agency (the Office of
Legal Complaints) to investigate consumer complaints against
both barristers and solicitors, would allow - for the first
time - ownership of law firms by non-lawyers. Indeed, the
Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer of Thoroton QC, has expressed
the view that the new law could lead to law firms actually
"going public" and listing themselves on the stock
market.
The new law, which is based on recommendations made by Sir
David Clementi, the former Deputy Governor of the Bank of
England who was commissioned in October 2003 to undertake a
review of the regulation of legal services, is not without its
critics. But, given the strong support of the Blair
government, it appears likely to be enacted.
Exactly what the impact of the new legislation will be or
how law firms in the UK will respond to it either immediately
or over time is hard to predict. Some large firms have said
that they anticipate no change in their structure or
operations as a result, but access to the capital markets
could prove a powerful temptation over the long term. We will
continue to monitor the situation with interest. Stay
tuned.
Conclusion
Although growth rates were somewhat under 2004 levels, the
legal profession had another solid year in 2005 in terms of
financial performance. That marks five years of continuous
financial success for the profession as a whole, although the
performance of individual firms and regions has obviously
varied during that period.
Looking ahead to 2006, we believe that healthy growth will
continue but not at the same rates that characterized the
market during the past five years. This conclusion is driven
by the convergence of a number of factors that cannot be
ignored:
- Hourly rates for most firms continue to increase, but
the rate of increase has slowed
- Realization rates are flat or, for many large firms,
down somewhat
- Given productivity improvements in many firms over the
past several years, it will be increasingly difficult for
them to achieve the same gains in productivity that
characterized performance over the past half decade
- While demand for litigation continues to grow, there are
signs that rates of growth are leveling off
- The real estate market appears to be cooling down
- Many clients are working aggressively to reduce their
legal costs, and convergence projects will take a toll on
many firms
- Operational costs are rising, including perhaps a new
round of associate "salary wars"
- Continuing growth and consolidation in the legal market
will make it increasingly difficult for firms to
differentiate themselves from their competitors
In short, there is ample evidence that the legal profession
is subject to the same basic economic and market factors that
affect other businesses. As in other market sectors, success
in the business of law will increasingly depend on strategic
vision and leadership, creative and effective management,
and clear focus on client service. As always, we stand ready to
assist our clients in meeting these challenges. Best wishes to
you for a successful and profitable 2006.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For additional
information: For Hildebrandt
International - please visit
www.hildebrandt.com or call
800-223-0937 (US) or +44 (0)
207 307
0600
(UK). For The Citigroup
Private Bank - please call
Dan DiPietro, Managing Director & Client
Head of The Citigroup
Private Bank Law Firm Group at 212-559-8645 or e-mail dan.dipietro@citigroup.com ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] Our figures relating to the growth of headcount in law
firms are taken from the NLJ 250 Survey as reported in The
National Law Journal, Nov. 14,2005, at S3, col. 1.
[2] Detailed statistics concerning the 2005 performance of
firms included in the Citigroup survey will be provided to
participating firms through a separate Supplement to this
Client Advisory. No aggregate or individual firm data from
that survey is included in this Client Advisory.
[3] Thomson Financial has reported that, in 2005, M&A
deals in the US increased by some 32 percent over 2004, with
the total value of announced deals involving US targets
topping $1.1 trillion. The last time US M&A activity
exceeded $1 trillion was in 2000, when it hit $1.6
trillion.
[4] As previously noted, figures relating to the growth of
headcount in law firms used in this paragraph and the
following one are taken from the NLJ 250 Survey as reported in
The National Law Journal, Nov. 14, 2005, at S3, col.
1.
[5] All of the merger, consolidation, and branch office
data set out in this section are derived from Hildebrandt's
Mergerwatch service and from Hildebrandt's own internal
research staff.
[6] Data on global expansion is derived from Hildebrandt's
internal research staff as reported throughout 2005 in
Hildebrandt Headlines.
[7] Defining precisely what constitutes a "mid-sized firm"
is difficult because the definition will vary depending upon
the areas of a firm's practice, itsgeographic location, the
number of offices it has, and other factors. Generally,
however, we would define a firm as "mid-sized" if it had a
minimum of about 50 lawyers and a maximum of 250 to 350.
[8] Of the 30 most profitable firms in the country, as
identified by Citigroup, six are AmLaw 200 (as opposed to
AmLaw 100) firms. In the main, these firms are single-office
niche practice firms that are highly focused and preeminent in
their fields of expertise.
[9] These data on the location of merger partners and of
new branch offices are derived from Hildebrandt's
Mergerwatch service and from Hildebrandt's own internal
research staff.
[10] These data relating to legal expenditures by US
corporations are drawn from the Hildebrandt 2005 Law
Department Survey which includes 140 companies, 97 (or 69
percent) of which have $5 billion or more in revenues. The
profile of the median participant in the 2005 Survey is a
company with approximately $9 billion in revenues, over 20,000
worldwide employees, and a US law department with over 30
lawyers and 60 total staff, incurring over $27 million in
total legal spending. The Survey covers a wide cross section
of law departments by both size and industry and is available
for purchase by law firms wanting to better understand the
purchasing habits of their clients.
[11] Data on the growth rates of contract lawyers are taken
from the NLJ 250 Survey as reported in The National Law
Journal, Nov. 14, 2005, at S3, col. 1.
[12] The National Law Journal, Dec. 5, 2005, at 10,
col. 1.
[13] For source, see note 11 above.
[14]
Id. |